$25 NLHE 6-max: QTs in the bb, semi-bluff on this board?

bgomez89

bgomez89

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Full Tilt - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $10.49
BTN: $10.01
SB: $21.20
Hero (BB): $10.00
UTG: $10.72

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has T:heart: Q:heart:

fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90, 3 players) 9:heart: J:spade: 6:spade:
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $0.60, fold, Hero ???

Ok before you say to fold pre, SB was a spewy fish and he was tilting the shit out of me.

BTN: 21/12/0 afq stl %-43 (3/7) over 42 hands
sb:59/15/55afq over 34 hands

so on the flop i have an OESD. I would really like to semi-bluff here but i also feel that this board hits the btn really well too. I dont know, what do you guys think?
 
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TorreyB

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Pretty sure I'd be calling BTNs cbet. Any 8, K, Q, or heart on the turn makes it more than worth it to see another street. Then if any 8, K, or heart hits the turn, I'm check raising. The reason why I say to call instead of raise when we have that many outs is that someone that tight will typically fold if we raise his cbet. Check raising the next street when we hit can get a better chance of him putting more money into the pot.

Probability of a pair on the turn: 31.91%
Probability of a straight on the turn: 17.02%
Probability of a flush by the river: 3.98%
Probability of a straight by the river: 29.88%
Probability of a pair by the river: 35.52%

I had some other probability combinations, but they were small and left I left them out. Not continuing the hand is criminal on the flop.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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The board is very wet. The action is multi-way. The other guy is a spewy fish. BTN is tight. All those mean :

He's not going to cbet here with air. He has something. He can very well have a weaker draw, a weak J himself. I would call and c/r I guess most turns for fold equity / value if we hit. If the turn is a spade you can probably c/f safely
 
Stu_Ungar

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You should donk this flop.

BTN should then fold most hands as he is uncertain of if the turn will be MW or HU as the fish can still call.
 
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Lofwyr

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What is BTN's fold to 3bet? A squeeze here could do good things for you if BTN folds a decent amount. Even as a tight player he appears to be opening a lot from position so his range can't be all that strong. QTs HU with position & initiative against the fish could be very +EV (assuming BTN folds to squeeze + SB calls).

Other than that a flat is probably best here and either x/shove or x/f turn depending on what comes.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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yeah true I guess I could've squeezed as btns f3bet is high but I really don't like 3betting QT :p
 
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