$25 NLHE 6-max: PP when the turn pairs part2

KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
$25 NL HE 6-max: PP when the turn pairs part2

Stacks:
* BB with $30.11
* UTG with $23.85
* MP with $5.00
* CO with $26.22
* BTN with $28.47
* SB with $25.30
hand.pl

Site: party poker
* * Dealt to CO:T♥ T♦
* * Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero raises [$1 USD]
* * BTN calls [$1 USD]
* * 2 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 4
* * Potsize: $2.35
Flop:
* * Q♦ 9♥ 3♠
* * Hero bets [$1.50 USD]
* * 2 players fold.
* * BTN calls [$1.50 USD]
* * Potsize: $5.35
Turn:
* * Q♣
* * Hero bets [$2.54 USD]
* * BTN raises [$6.75 USD]
* * Hero calls [$4.21 USD]
* * Potsize: $18.85
River:
* * 2♠
* * Hero checks
* * BTN is all-in [$19.22 USD]
* * Hero ??????



Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum


Now this hand is nearly identical to the last one, but this time imo villian can only have a PP lower than mine.

There is no other reason to raise the turn, unless he has a straight draw or a hand that he's betting for value against AK. i.e PP

Anyone with a view on this?
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
IMO 25NL players are incapable of bluffing on boards this dry. You might once in a while run into A9 who thinks he has the nuts but this is pretty much a shove for value 95% of the time, it doesn't matter if you have AA or 77 here. Smaller pairs will call you down seeking showdown if they think you have AK; this is your basic Beluga treatment.
 
Mase31683

Mase31683

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 27, 2008
Total posts
1,474
Awards
1
Chips
1
Betting and getting raised sucks here on the turn, but you have to fold. Villains just aren't bluffing here basically ever.

I don't mind bet/folding here, and I don't really mind check/calling either. A lot of players I've seen will bet here after you check with just about any pair, or call a river bet after checking behind, so a check helps keep their range wide enough to extract a little more value on a street.
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
Come on guy's, really think about the hand. Im trying to teach you something here about the board pairing and reading board texture.

It's an insta call for hero on the river.

He flips 66 for a low pair.

It makes no sense for villian to raise the turn with any hand, just like the last hand i posted. He may look insainly strong but underneath the cob webs it's a bad play that can be manipulated.

I could go as far as saying re-jamming the turn is the better play but i just don't know who's calling this.
 
Mase31683

Mase31683

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 27, 2008
Total posts
1,474
Awards
1
Chips
1
How does an underpair decide jamming makes sense here? He can't think you're folding any AQ,KQ,etc, so he's hoping you have TT-AA and that he can move you off it? You really think they're jamming more often turning some pair type hand into a bluff instead of 99,33,Qx? I dunno about that.
 
Last edited:
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
Erm. Maybe it's not explained properly.

We should jam over his raise.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
There is no other reason to raise the turn

Well, he did set up a situation where he can play for stacks on the river w 99 or 33 hoping you have Qx or TT+ (I've also seen players holding Qx do this). Without raising the turn, if Hero checks the river, the river shove is a massive overbet.

Of course, if this were his intent, he should've raised the turn a touch bigger ($7.25 would be nice) or sets would've raised the flop, so I doubt he was thinking at that level, but that would be a reason to raise the turn.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
you are still pwn3d here 95% of the time.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Yeah this is generally a fold on the turn (or a c/c) without a specific read that villain is a maniac. People don't flat JT/9x then raise the turn - you're repping too strong a range for them to do that. Shoving over his turn raise is FAR from the best play. It's absolute spew. Namely because people don't baluga JT here, or any made hand you beat that will also call a shove.

You say his raise on the turn represents nothing. Why?
What do you think his logic for raising turn as a bluff is?
What do you think his value raising range for the turn is?
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
Yeah this is generally a fold on the turn (or a c/c) without a specific read that villain is a maniac. People don't flat JT/9x then raise the turn - you're repping too strong a range for them to do that. Shoving over his turn raise is FAR from the best play. It's absolute spew. Namely because people don't baluga JT here, or any made hand you beat that will also call a shove.

You say his raise on the turn represents nothing. Why?
What do you think his logic for raising turn as a bluff is?
What do you think his value raising range for the turn is?
N


No I like my play at the start, I was just saying that raising his turn bluff would be a better move from a non nit position.

Q1 who's raising on a dry board like this if they want you in the hand?

Q2 he raises as a semi bluff to get me off one pair hands or absolute junk as most people no it's a bad double barrel card. They then jam the river because the looked strong on the turn and think you will fold when draws miss etc.

Q3 he is never value raising the turn with anything good.

Once in a while someone will but put it down to variance.
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
Well, he did set up a situation where he can play for stacks on the river w 99 or 33 hoping you have Qx or TT+ (I've also seen players holding Qx do this). Without raising the turn, if Hero checks the river, the river shove is a massive overbet.

Of course, if this were his intent, he should've raised the turn a touch bigger ($7.25 would be nice) or sets would've raised the flop, so I doubt he was thinking at that level, but that would be a reason to raise the turn.

I see it like this. If villian thinks I have a hand that will play for stacks then I'll bet river, call shove, or check river call shove or reraise. He will get the money in anyway. So calling turn is better to keep bluffs in which here should be more times than good made hands.

A raise on the turn can be explioted as a semi bluff. Try it. But don't just spew chips. The board texture has to be right when the board pairs the turn
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
I see it like this. If villian thinks I have a hand that will play for stacks then I'll bet river, call shove, or check river call shove or reraise. He will get the money in anyway. So calling turn is better to keep bluffs inwhich here should be more times than good made hands.

A raise on the turn can be explioted as a semi bluff. Try it. But don't just spew chips. The board texture has to be right when the board pairs the turn

Against good players, I don't disagree w your line of reasoning, but I think you're overestimating the bluffing frequency of 25nl players and, more importantly, the amount of thinking the average 25nl player does. What I bolded is specifically something I don't think the average 25nl player thinks about or is even aware of.
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
If I am overestimating them then variance will catch me up eventually I guess

I just thought it would be good to have a couple of hand samples that could potentially help people win money instead of the same old threads
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
Don't get me wrong, I understand your line of reasoning and, like I say, against a thinking player I'd weight semibluffs/pure bluffs a little more heavily. I think this is a good and worthwhile discussion, and am looking forward to more of your discussion w ChuckTs.

You don't say in OP what type of villain we're looking at - if this were a passive fish for example, 24/8/1, this is a snap fold imo. Against a 24/20/3, or better a 65/35/3, I'm more likely to consider the problems w Villain taking that line - I just find too often that the illogical line is due to the fish not understanding what lines make sense and how to value bet rather than the fish bluffing. I find that I end up outleveling myself a lot when trying to apply this level of logic to what fish are doing.
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
your right i did. Can't see why id miss the stats off.

he was 16/13/2.5 over 96 so it's a fair number for these stats. He was definatley not a fish.

But imo a fish would never raise the turn either if they never raised the flop. I can imagine him thinking to himself how im going to be sorry if i tripple barrell against his quads lol.

People at low stakes do 2 things. try to out think themselves when they don't know how they fair in a pot by not representing hands well or just play abc poker.

Now if the villian had called my turn bet id be less likely to call or bet on the river (his bet dependent)

But as you say if a super mega fish raised here with an agression of 0.9 id be looking towards the fold button to.
 
Top