$25 NLHE 6-max: Overpair on wet board vs reg

This is $30 NLHE

Villains stats are over 1.4k hands. They are 22/15, with 72% fold to 3bet, 41% fold to cbet and 49% AFq
I bet large on the flop since it was a wet board so I wanted to get the money in asap, is this a mistake? And do we call the shove?

888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: $38.82
Hero (BB): $59.11
UTG: $30.00
CO: $36.97
BTN: $30.18

SB posts SB $0.15, Hero posts BB $0.30

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.45) Hero has Qd Qc

fold, CO raises to $1.05, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.30, CO calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.75, 2 players) Th 9s 6h
Hero bets $5.10, CO raises to $33.67, Hero?

From a learning perspective, my best advice if you're going to post scenarios where all the money is in, is post a range. I mean, that's all you're really struggling with here I assume. You aren't sure what kind of range to assign. Because once you have that, then it's simple math since there's no more betting.

The reason you want to assign a range when you post is so that you allow yourself to think about the situation, and then others to adjust your range and have a discussion about those differences. Otherwise you're just asking people to give you the answers to the test.

It's the best way to learn imho.

John A said:

From a learning perspective, my best advice if you're going to post scenarios where all the money is in, is post a range. I mean, that's all you're really struggling with here I assume. You aren't sure what kind of range to assign. Because once you have that, then it's simple math since there's no more betting.

The reason you want to assign a range when you post is so that you allow yourself to think about the situation, and then others to adjust your range and have a discussion about those differences. Otherwise you're just asking people to give you the answers to the test.

It's the best way to learn imho.

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Ok I'll give a go at giving him a range. It's probably something like AQhh, QQ-99. He probably 4bets AKhh and AA/KK which are the only other hands he could show up with probably. Could also have AJhh but I don't think so since his fold to 3bet is 72%. So based on this I guess it's a fold

Thanks for posting this hand. I think this is a tough spot and would like to hear more.

I find that shove hard to interpret. Is it:

1. He has a good pocket pair like 99-QQ (I know you already have 2 Q so less likely but possible) and wants to push you out from possible flush. Maybe protecting the set of 10s or 9s? Hmm. He folds to 3-bet 3/4 of the time. Would he call with a moderate pocket pair? He would kinda be set mining at that point, and was getting bad odds for that. I think he would have folded those.

2. He has the flush draw himself, or is open-ended with a hand like JQ (or both with JhQh) and this is a semi-bluff raise. This feels very possible. He called your three bet from position. On the one hand, if he only calls 3-bet 25% of the time, is he inspired to do that with JhQh?? Maybe. I think calling the 3-bet with suited connectors is in many ways better than calling with 9/9. If he did have the combo straight and flush draw, I think it is aggressive but not crazy to get them all in. He would have 15 outs with 2 cards to come and no need to worry about future bets. He actually would have more equity than your made hand!

3. He's on a super premium pair - KK or AA. I think less likely, as no 4-bet. Once you got the pre-flop pot up to $6.75 = 22bb, he should probably not try to use deception with AA or KK and should've grabbed that pot with a 4 bet.

So, I put him on the combo draw > set > bigger pocket pair than yours >> less.

I would fold.

Actually given this pot, I would put him on large overpair like AA or KK because sometimes decent players will simply flat the 3bet (to disguise strength of hand). In which case your Queens are no good, or he is doing it with two overcard hearts, in which case he probably has slightly more equity than you and is slightly favored to win. Or he could've flatted with 9Ts and hit top two, but either way I think this is a bad spot to get all your money in. This would be an insta shove against a fish who will spazz out with AT but against a decent player this is clearly a fold.

I think a fold also. however I feel that more information is probably necessary, it's a tricky spot.
wish I knew how to read those stats.

I think since he has such a high FT 3bet% and that he isn't an obvious fish that the only hand your ahead of here is JJ, shoving before an overcard or flush hits. I think he is more likely to show up with OE FD r FD and 2 overs like AKs, overpair or set here more than anything else and he will be ahead nearly every time. Sucks folding overpair but I think it was a good fold

I have encountered this a lot lately at 20nl and 30nl on 888. I think this is AA or KK well played in position.

if he 4bets you he exposes the strength of his hand, but if he calls he will get a cbet from you every time plus you might even stack of lighter on flop then you might preflop. hence why you are contemplating a call here with QQ when it is in fact an easy fold.

and lets not forget you cbet really big on flop, which shows a lot of strength but yet he shoves over the top, I see no way in which you are good here.

forsakenone said:

I have encountered this a lot lately at 20nl and 30nl on 888.

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Forsakenone you play on 888 then do you? 6max of FR? Whats your name on their?

And thanks for all the replies guys, I agree now given your feedback that this spot is a fold

penny4mysoul is my nick on 888. you play there as well?

forsakenone said:

penny4mysoul is my nick on 888. you play there as well?

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Yea my name is the same as on here. I'm usually playing 30nl 6max. What do u play?

js520 said:

Yea my name is the same as on here. I'm usually playing 30nl 6max. What do u play?

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20nl and 30nl currently on 888. played yesterday but didn't see you at the tables.

btw do you only play 30nl? because it would look like it might be a hard time finding 4-6 tables that are not shark infested. or do you mix the 30nl tables with some 20nl or perhaps 50nl?

forsakenone said:

20nl and 30nl currently on 888. played yesterday but didn't see you at the tables.

btw do you only play 30nl? because it would look like it might be a hard time finding 4-6 tables that are not shark infested. or do you mix the 30nl tables with some 20nl or perhaps 50nl?

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Yea I mainly just play 30nl, usually on 6 tables. Occasionly i do have some 20nl tables and tried going up to 50 a while back but it didn't go so well. I find there are some tables that are literally all sharks but not that often.
There's usually either multiple fish or one massive donk that everyone just profiting off. Plus most of the regs on there I would say aren't really that good. Guess it depeneds what sort of times u play aswell