re: Poker & $25 NLHE 6-max: Overpair on wet board vs reg
Thanks for posting this hand. I think this is a tough spot and would like to hear more.
I find that shove hard to interpret. Is it:
1. He has a good pocket pair like 99-QQ (I know you already have 2 Q so less likely but possible) and wants to push you out from possible flush. Maybe protecting the set of 10s or 9s? Hmm. He folds to 3-bet 3/4 of the time. Would he call with a moderate pocket pair? He would kinda be set mining at that point, and was getting bad odds
for that. I think he would have folded those.
2. He has the flush draw himself, or is open-ended with a hand like JQ (or both with JhQh) and this is a semi-bluff raise. This feels very possible. He called your three bet from position. On the one hand, if he only calls 3-bet 25% of the time, is he inspired to do that with JhQh?? Maybe. I think calling the 3-bet with suited connectors is in many ways better than calling with 9/9. If he did have the combo straight and flush draw, I think it is aggressive but not crazy to get them all in. He would have 15 outs with 2 cards to come and no need to worry about future bets. He actually would have more equity than your made hand!
3. He's on a super premium pair - KK or AA. I think less likely, as no 4-bet. Once you got the pre-flop pot up to $6.75 = 22bb, he should probably not try to use deception with AA or KK and should've grabbed that pot with a 4 bet.
So, I put him on the combo draw > set > bigger pocket pair than yours >> less.
I would fold.