$25 NLHE 6-max: nut straight 3bet pot but potential flush

bitowl

bitowl

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100bb effective stacks

I open 3bb JTss in the hijack, cutoff 3bets small ~8bb, button and big blind flat, I call given the small 3bet and extra $ in pot from cold callers

flop: 678 two clubs so flush draw is out, it checks all the way through

turn: 9, third club so potential flush, checks to me, I bet about half pot, original 3better calls, everyone else folds

river: 2, I jam

Think there is any merit to being scared of the flush or do you think it's an obvious value bet vs Tx?? It's bovada so it's pretty fishy.
 
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MinhANguyen

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Check/decide. The value jam is a little thin. There aren't that many 10's in his 3-betting range CO vs MP. And you having a ten reduces the number of light 3-bet hands that have a 10 in it, and of course 1010 drastically.

It's pretty reasonable for him to have a flush here a decent amount of the time. I think most opponents would almost always bet QQ-AA, some JJ otf. But 4-way they'd check back their A high draws and hands like KQcc/KJcc. And calling the turn with a flush is pretty mandatory.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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I'm sure we are ahead a lot of river but what do you think is calling an overbet jam? I think even 1010 may find a fold to a bet like that so it really is a "never getting called by worse" spot unless you know villain is a major station.

As a standard we can bet/fold 40% pot. Check/decide is going to allow villain to check back too many hands that we can get value from and we are never check/folding river. There is a argument that we can open up his bluffing range by checking because villain should have overs with a single club but I think most A high hands just check river hoping they are good at these stakes(they never are)
 
bitowl

bitowl

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I'm sure we are ahead a lot of river but what do you think is calling an overbet jam?

It wasn't an overbet. I don't have the hand history but it was at most a pot sized bet. I think I may have bet more like 2/3 on the turn so the pot would be like 82bbs and we'd have 67bbs on the river.
 
IPlay

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It wasn't an overbet. I don't have the hand history but it was at most a pot sized bet. I think I may have bet more like 2/3 on the turn so the pot would be like 82bbs and we'd have 67bbs on the river.

Well, getting this stuff right when posting a hand is pretty crucial. The way you worded it we have 75bb behind and the pot is 67bbs on river.

67bbs behind with an 82bb pot is going to be played differently then a 67bb pot with 75bbs behind.

Do we have any reads on CO?
 
bitowl

bitowl

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Check/decide. The value jam is a little thin. There aren't that many 10's in his 3-betting range CO vs MP. And you having a ten reduces the number of light 3-bet hands that have a 10 in it, and of course 1010 drastically.

It's pretty reasonable for him to have a flush here a decent amount of the time. I think most opponents would almost always bet QQ-AA, some JJ otf. But 4-way they'd check back their A high draws and hands like KQcc/KJcc. And calling the turn with a flush is pretty mandatory.

I've been playing around with ranges. If his range is nothing but AK,AQ flushes and TT we have 50% equity so it's a neutral jam. When widening the range to TT,JTs,T9s,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc we have 49.5% equity. Obviously from there whether we add in more broadway or more suited aces we either gain or lose. It's not hard at all to come up with a 3betting range that has us crushed on the river (like all suited aces, no suited connectors or broadways).

I'm not really sure what to think... I still kind of think it's a +EV because of the tard factor on bovada. I wouldn't have been the least bit surprised if he called with any 2pair,set,AA,A5suited etc.

But I probably shouldn't have been so quick to shovel the money in. Maybe keep betting 1/3 pot and fold to a raise would have been ideal.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Yeah I for sure like the idea of betting smaller on turn when the flush and straight gets there to leave us room to get away on river.(When we bet turn there is still 4 players in the hand so there is plenty of flush combos to be wary of)

In all honesty in the 25Z pool on Bovada I don't mind shoving this for value. People will show up with all kinds of strange 10x and two pairs that they fall in love with.
 
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