Originally Posted by MinhANguyen
Check/decide. The value jam is a little thin. There aren't that many 10's in his 3-betting range CO vs MP. And you having a ten reduces the number of light 3-bet hands that have a 10 in it, and of course 1010 drastically.
It's pretty reasonable for him to have a flush here a decent amount of the time. I think most opponents would almost always bet QQ-AA, some JJ otf. But 4-way they'd check back their A high draws and hands like KQcc/KJcc. And calling the turn with a flush is pretty mandatory.
I've been playing around with ranges. If his range is nothing but AK,AQ flushes and TT we have 50% equity so it's a neutral jam. When widening the range to TT,JTs,T9s,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc we have 49.5% equity. Obviously from there whether we add in more broadway or more suited aces we either gain or lose. It's not hard at all to come up with a 3betting range that has us crushed on the river (like all suited aces, no suited connectors or broadways).
I'm not really sure what to think... I still kind of think it's a +EV because of the tard factor on bovada. I wouldn't have been the least bit surprised if he called with any 2pair,set,AA,A5suited etc.
But I probably shouldn't have been so quick to shovel the money in. Maybe keep betting 1/3 pot and fold to a raise would have been ideal.