$25 NLHE 6-max: Nut flush draw oop in 3bet pot

This is $30 NLHE

Villain is pretty much unknown, his stats over 62 hands were 13/12 and i hadn't noted anything from him. When he cold calls preflop i'm thinking his range is probably 88-QQ, maybe AQ+. Obviously don't know much about him though.

888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: $35.96
CO: $51.98
BTN: $39.45
Hero (SB): $40.01
BB: $30.00

Hero posts SB $0.15, BB posts BB $0.30

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.45) Hero has Ac Kc

fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $2.40, BB calls $2.10, BTN calls $1.80

Flop: ($7.20, 3 players) 9c 8c 2d
Hero bets $3.60, BB calls $3.60, fold

Turn: ($14.40, 2 players) 9d
Hero?

Fwiw, I would probably c/f turn. However, villain likely on a draw. J-10 is what I am leaning towards. If he flopped a set or top pair, I would think he would raise flop bet instead of flatting.

You could try betting again on turn, but unlikely villain will believe you hit the flop. And if he calls, you are probably in deep trouble.

Just too tough OOP in this spot.

Unlikely he has a 9, only 9 I can think of is A/9. If he has a full house then so be it. Bet turn, You have nut flush draw and two overcards.

Bet/call.

WVHillbilly said:

Bet/call.

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I'm pretty much seeing his range on the turn as 88-QQ, against 88 and 99 we are dead and TT-QQ we have roughly 30% equity and probably not a lot of fold equity. U reckon that range is about right?

How much would u bet and if he calls and the river blanks r u check/folding?

I'd bet turn like 8.20 and jam any river that's a club/J/Q/, and am torn on whether to thin value bet an A/K or just jam it with the rest of the range.depends on my view of villain, but v a villain lk this I really don't mind jamming river with complete blanks either.
He's obv a nit and is going to find it extremely hard to call off with any overpair to its pp on river unless he's hit a set, trips being unlikely.
So yeah tonnes of FE so I'd prob just pretty much jam any river

Urrgh a nit has cold called our 3bet. I thin his range is a fair bit tighter than you give him credit for on average. I also see nits flat KK+ here as they don't have a cold 4bet range for fear of scaring people off.

This is the most passive thing I'll ever suggest but I'm going to check/call or check/fold every street till I hit one of my 15outs. I just don't see villain having any worse hands for us to fold out. If he did have a worse hand in his range it would fold so we lose nothing by letting it bet at us I can't see a nit Cold calling AQ then double barreling it.

Sure we don;t have many hands but a 13vpip is damned tight, I can;t see him ever being over 20. As played I check/call or check/fold based on his bet sizing. If us having neglibile fold equity based on villains preflop actions alone applied on the flop now he's called it counts even more so. Him not raising doesn't even confine him to just TT-QQ as he could well have flatted a big hand to keep the other player in.

There's my 2cents before you post the results that he had 5c6c

Maybe the best thing to do is bet one more time to make marginal hands fold like 10s or jacks. U have backup equity so double barreling here must me the best move. If u dont hit u know the guy is pot commited with his decision to follow so c/f.

lol at deco calling someone a nit

but I do agree, we have no FE here so betting is spew since we never get folds on this board from TT+.

$6 and thin value rivers when we hit? probably more on clubs and smaller on A/K given the range we're trying to get value from.

At the time of the hand I agreed with Deco and 9K, thinking that I didn't have much FE, so I checked and he bets $9. How much equity do we think we have and therefore should we call?

We're getting roughly 2.5/1 on a call and it would leave effective stacks on river at $15

Id hate check calling here and I don't think he bets after you check. I would either bet or check fold - but that is just me.

Fold, the board has paired our flush outs may not even be good now.

Oh come on. I don't mind c/f because villain will rarely bet this turn but he NEVER has a boat here.

If our flush outs were completly clean we'd need to make $13 on the river when we hit to breakeven. There is only $15 behind.

88/99 is fairly unlikely given villains nittyness and his cold call but it is feasible and when he has it we not only don't make the $13 we need we lose $13.

Whilst our overcard outs looks incresingly precarious when the 9 doesn't slow villain down at all the weaker overpairs wouldn't be feeling to great at this point.

I think that taking a passive line here and c/f with 15 outs cant be a great one. You say there is no FE here but have u ever got 3bet with 10s or jacks and faced a second barrel? Dont u hate it and sometimes fold(He may also think we know hes a nit and trying to extract value from his marginal hand)? If he doesnt set mine its a very hard spot for him with great backup equity for us imo.

nidal55 said:

I think that taking a passive line here and c/f with 15 outs cant be a great one. You say there is no FE here but have u ever got 3bet with 10s or jacks and faced a second barrel? Dont u hate it and sometimes fold

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Not on this board.

ch/c looks good. A and K are gonna be good a lot of the time too and he's gonna have the same hand sometimes.

Bet out seems good to me, like $8-9. I would put him on a draw of some kind, maybe a flush draw with Q high or something, or a straight draw (maybe both). With the action so far, I wouldn't be convinced he had better than a draw, doubtful he'd be slowplaying a monster like 888 or 999. I like the bet on the turn for info, if he raises... well, that would be more convincing that he's got better than a draw.

what was the result?

hotace256 said:

Bet out seems good to me, like $8-9. I would put him on a draw of some kind, maybe a flush draw with Q high or something, or a straight draw (maybe both). With the action so far, I wouldn't be convinced he had better than a draw, doubtful he'd be slowplaying a monster like 888 or 999. I like the bet on the turn for info, if he raises... well, that would be more convincing that he's got better than a draw.

what was the result?

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If we think he has a Q high draw why would we ever bet and let him play perfectly by folding?

hotace256 said:

Bet out seems good to me, like $8-9. I would put him on a draw of some kind, maybe a flush draw with Q high or something, or a straight draw (maybe both). With the action so far, I wouldn't be convinced he had better than a draw, doubtful he'd be slowplaying a monster like 888 or 999. I like the bet on the turn for info, if he raises... well, that would be more convincing that he's got better than a draw.

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You're saying that a seemingly tight player flats our preflop 3 bet with suited connectors? Most of the time I think he folds those preflop, even though we don't have a good read. I think a lot of the time this is AA/KK, even though there are fewer combos since we have some, and maybe QQ, simply because our range might be slightly wider because the OR is a fish. If the tight player read is correct, he's flatted our 3 bet preflop with a monster to keep the fish in the hand.

62 hands = tons of junk in his range. Not enough to narrow it to JJ+ imo. It's also a minraised pot preflop which widens both of villain's ranges significantly.

I bet/bet this as a standard, c/folding bad rivers.

As it happens I tank called the $9 turn bet, the river blanked, I checked and he checked back with AKo

Good call on the turn, js520.
What would you have done on the river if he bet? I think you'd pretty much have to call, but that'd be a harder one to make.