$25 NLHE 6-max: massive overbet on river (RUSH)/what's my range/what's your calling range

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baudib1

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$25 NL HE 6-max: massive overbet on river (RUSH)/what's my range/what's your calling range

HH with hole cards hidden

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($42.88)
UTG+1 ($36.35)
CO ($29.04)
BTN ($45.20)
SB ($9.96)
BB ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG X,X
Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: J:heart: 7:heart: 10:diamond: ($1.85, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

Turn: J:diamond: ($4.35, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

River: K:spade: ($7.35, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $39.38, BTN calls $39.38
 
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baudib1

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Wanted to prompt some discussion because this was an interesting hand.

1. Estimate my range preflop, on the flop, on the turn, and finally, the river. There's one street that I'm more curious to hear about than any other, and I'll explain why later.

2. What's villain's calling range on the flop and on the turn.

3. What's your calling range on the river?

4. Discuss whether or not my shove is good or bad based on what you perceive my range to be as well as villain's calling range.
 
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TorreyB

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My first guesses for hero's preflop range is AK/AQ/JJ+, with the river shoves it looked like the hero is holding KK and villian has AJ/KJ/JT/TT/77.

If the hero is holding KK I'd say it was a excellent choice for a shove, because the villian will have a hard time getting away from his big holding.
 
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baudib1

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I was just wondering if the overbet shove is really optimal here.

Here's my thinking:

Flop:
We would expect button can call this flop fairly wide, and it hits their range extremely hard. They can easily expect UTG to bet its whole range here, which includes some sets and overpairs, but also a lot of AK/KQ/AQ type hands

So button's calling range is something like Jx, Tx...some nutlike hands should raise but not always, so sets, 2 pair and straights are possible. But there are also many, many combos of 1-pair + SD hands, AK/AQ/KQ hands as well as FDs.

Because of the texture of this flop, I believe I made a mistake in betting so little. Closer to pot or overbetting the pot is preferable I believe.

The turn:
I have the nuts!

I elect to check, which I sorta regretted right away, since draws that brick the river can check behind.

On the other hand:
A. If he has Jx/77/TT/89, the action on the turn is almost irrelevant. They're paying off most rivers anyway.
B. Button can call wider on a lot of rivers, as my range now looks a lot like 1 pair hands that don't like the board pairing or the whiffed overcards.

The River:
Even though I don't have the nuts, this really looks like a bingo card to me.

Villain's ranges:
Jx is still trips, even though I now lose to KJ. Full houses are still paying off, and 98 is probably still calling.
AQ made broadway.
AK might make a crying call of a big bet.

I don't think I am ever bluffing here, but balancing seems really unimportant as this is RUSH. It could also look like I am spazzing out with AK.

thoughts?
 
cjatud2012

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HH with hole cards hidden

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($42.88)
UTG+1 ($36.35)
CO ($29.04)
BTN ($45.20)
SB ($9.96)
BB ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG X,X
Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: J<font color='red'>♥</font> 7<font color='red'>♥</font> 10<font color='red'>♦</font> ($1.85, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

Turn: J<font color='red'>♦</font> ($4.35, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

River: K<font color='black'>♠</font> ($7.35, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $39.38, BTN calls $39.38

pre your range is kinda tight since you're UTG, but it's different since we're 6-handed. So 22+, AJs+, AQo+ probably isn't an awful place to start at.

On the flop, we're c-betting most of our range I'd assume, obv QQ+, 77 TT & JJ, AJs, maybe 88 99 AQ & AK, could even fire the smaller pairs.

We're probably checking those smaller pairs now on the turn, our overcards, flush draws, etc. so villain probably figures he can bet you off most of the time. When we call, our range has a lot of draws, but we could still have an overpair that's worried about trips and now wants a cheap showdown. If I were villain I wouldn't put us on trips too often.

When we shove river, I don't know how often villain calls, so based on the way the hand played out this might be a good spot for us to bluff. However we have a great hand obviously so I think a more straight-forward value bet would be better.

Really interesting exercise, obv I'm not very good at this :( but hopefully I bumped this thread and more people take notice of it.
 
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