re: Poker & $25 NLHE 6-max: massive overbet on river (RUSH)/what's my range/what's your calling range
I was just wondering if the overbet shove is really optimal here.
Here's my thinking:
We would expect button can call this flop fairly wide, and it hits their range extremely hard. They can easily expect UTG to bet its whole range here, which includes some sets and overpairs, but also a lot of AK/KQ/AQ type hands
So button's calling range is something like Jx, Tx...some nutlike hands should raise but not always, so sets, 2 pair and straights are possible. But there are also many, many combos of 1-pair + SD hands, AK/AQ/KQ hands as well as FDs.
Because of the texture of this flop, I believe I made a mistake in betting so little. Closer to pot or overbetting the pot is preferable I believe.
I have the nuts!
I elect to check, which I sorta regretted right away, since draws that brick the river can check behind.
On the other hand:
A. If he has Jx/77/TT/89, the action on the turn is almost irrelevant. They're paying off most rivers anyway.
B. Button can call wider on a lot of rivers, as my range now looks a lot like 1 pair hands that don't like the board pairing or the whiffed overcards.
Even though I don't have the nuts, this really looks like a bingo card to me.
Jx is still trips, even though I now lose to KJ. Full houses are still paying off, and 98 is probably still calling.
AQ made broadway.
AK might make a crying call of a big bet.
I don't think I am ever bluffing
here, but balancing seems really unimportant as this is RUSH. It could also look like I am spazzing out with AK.