re: Poker & $25 NLHE 6-max: marginal flop decision in 3bpot
Originally Posted by Eatscake
That would be correct if diamonds were outs... He has 8 outs which he has to hit on the turn. So he'd need roughly 6:1 right? As you said hes only getting 4.26:1 so its not great to peal. Plus I think sometimes he has stuff like AXh which could be a reverse implied odds situation. Although I dont think peeling is bad I prefer to fold.
Ok, I think I need to provide a detailed explanation of my previous post.
His diamonds are his outs since they allow him to pick up a huge piece of equity on the turn.
Of course, they are not his direct outs for defining his final hand strength on the turn, but backdraw outs and that's obvious if we look at it from the all in equity perspective. Our overall (turn & river) all in equity on the flop would be something like 8 straight outs and 1 flush out (counted as a backdraw out).
So, it's roughly 9 outs by the river, but that's not what we should be discussing here.
But, if we look at it street by street (which is what we are discussing here in the first place), it becomes a completely different question, and since the OP asked whether he should call the flop to see only the turn card, that's is the only relevant question in this case.
So, when considering only our turn equity, we want to make sure to count all of our possible turn outs (in this case 16), which would give us more equity on the turn (flushdraw) or improve our hand to the best hand (made straight), and they are far more relevant FOR OUR TURN equity, and less relevant for our overall all in equity (Turn & River combined).
And since we only need about 19% equity (4.26 : 1) for the turn call to be profitable i think we have an easy decision with our 16 combined turn outs for one street. Of course, to accuratelly calculate all of this we have to take into account the % of the time when we improve to the best hand
on the turn and compare and add it to the % of the time when we just pick up an additional equity, i.e. flushdraw, while taking some additional factors into account as well, and draw our final conclusions and do the math from there. I can't be bothered to do the math right now, but you get the picture (I hope so).
But then again, even if we disregard all of this (which we shouldn't BTW), and rely on your judgment/estimation and only take into account 8 turn outs (straight outs), we still have the odds to call and you're wrong again. Odds/probability of making a straight from an open-ended straight draw on the turn card is 4.9 to 1 or 16.9% chance, not 6:1, and we are getting 4.26 to 1 direct odds on our money + even a minimal implied odds make this a super easy call and since our hand will be well disguised when we hit, our real implied odds are much much greater than minimum.
Also, I don't think we should worry too much about reverse implied odds in this particular case.
So, The flop decision is definitely an easy one imo, the real decision is on the turn when we often pick up our flush draw and will often be faced with almost a pot sized all in bet while holding a combo draw in our hands, which is a tricky spot. This is why we need reads and villain's tendencies to make a solid decision on the turn.