$25 NLHE 6-max: KK vs donk turn minraise

J

js520

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Villain is a donk, his stats are 66/3 with 43% Afq, 58% fold o flop cbet and 27% fold to turn cbet. His stats are over 482 hands and the only note I have on him is that he doesn't bluff missed draws.
So when he raises the turn does he always have a staight/2pair/set or do you think he can do this with a naked Q and whatever else? Do we just apply belugas theorem and fold?

888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $55.80
Hero (SB): $30.15
BB: $63.26
UTG: $47.54
CO: $30.78

Hero posts SB $0.15, BB posts BB $0.30

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.45) Hero has Kd Kc

fold, fold, BTN calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, BTN calls $1.20

Flop: ($3.30, 2 players) Qs 2c 9d
Hero bets $2.70, BTN calls $2.70

Turn: ($8.70, 2 players) 8c
Hero bets $7.50, BTN raises to $15.00, Hero?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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This is approaching baluga territory for me, and basically it comes down to history with the guy. You should have a pretty good feel for his showdown game after almost 500 hands. tbh I don't really pay attention to the aggression stats with these guys, instead just deferring to my history with them.

Has he minraised for a cheaper showdown in the past? Overvalue top pairs? Never raise without 2pair or an overpair? Completely retarded and turn 9T for pair+GS and flip his shit? etc.
 
D

DunningKruger

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This is JT a fair bit. Lame spot since these turn min raises often indicate the fishy player really likes his hand. If you feel you're going to have to call a sizable river bet than folding on the turn isn't bad, but as mentioned already past history helps a lot in spots like this.
 
forsakenone

forsakenone

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I am folding that unless I am tilting.
 
BLACKSTACK

BLACKSTACK

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Id say he is overbetting AQ or might of got his straight with J10,seems like he was chasing an 8 or K and when he got it didnt mind to raise it to $15, hes either got you beat or trying to defend his lousy Q.
 
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