$25 NLHE 6-max: kk vs passive cs

K

Kidsoldja

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2010
Total posts
46
Chips
0
$25 NL HE 6-max: kk vs passive cs

35/4/0.3 over 24
Got 2nd BD flush draw but I still don't see any way I can call this turn shove.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($17.60)
UTG+1 ($23.95)
MP1 ($59.15)
MP2 ($40.42)
CO ($25)
BTN ($24.65)
Hero ($31.19)
BB ($77.28)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) Hero is SB
kh.gif
kc.gif

2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.25
Flop:
3d.gif
qh.gif
5h.gif
($3.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP1 calls $2
Turn:
9h.gif
($7.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP1 goes all-in $55.65, Hero folds
 
X

Xavier

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 8, 2008
Total posts
437
Chips
0
Fold. He probably has a set or a flush.
Getting married to overpairs and never folding them is one of the mistakes people omake frequently in deeps stack cash game poker.
 
W

WillySmackYoAss

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 6, 2010
Total posts
152
Chips
0
I think preflop, this is an over bet, especially since the hand can be 3 way at most. I don't understand why you bet almost the same amount on the flop as you did preflop. If you bet so big preflop, why not bet big on the flop. These smaller bets probably smell like weakness to your opponent, and he's taking advantage of a scare card.

When you play your hand this strong preflop, no reason to slow it down on this kind of flop.
 
O

onemorechance

live free or die
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 19, 2010
Total posts
2,925
Chips
0
Bet bigger on flop and turn, but yeah I think this is a fold. I don't think he's ever doing this with Qx
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Bet bigger on flop and turn, but yeah I think this is a fold. I don't think he's ever doing this with Qx

Maybe AhQx but that's a small part of his range, the rest of which has you crushed. Not a fan of your turn bet sizing but when this guy raises you it's because he has a hand, not because he sensed weakness.

Fold.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
It's a cold day in hell before I fold an overpair + FD here to an almost unknown with stats like a complete fish.

Just sayin'.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Yeah, while this looks like an easy fold, my god I'd have a hell of a time making it. I try not to fold huge hands against fish. I'd be like "ehhh... its only 24 hands" and call.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
It's a cold day in hell before I fold an overpair + FD here to an almost unknown with stats like a complete fish.

Just sayin'.

This is almost never worse at micro FR.
 
Pascal-lf

Pascal-lf

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 26, 2010
Total posts
3,161
Awards
1
Chips
1
Had a similar hand on a board of J9AK with two diamonds on flop, he jammed turn. I called with KJ and he had QTo.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
This is almost never worse at micro FR.

Wait, "never worse" from a reg or "never worse" from anyone at all? Because the latter I'm having a hard time believing, given that I could only assume there is at least as many completely clueless people playing NL25FR as there are playing 400NL 6Max. I guess I'm at a loss as to why someone at micro FR would ever play any hand this way (except maybe 99). Why is he raising a set on the turn but not the flop? And then shove? Is he slowplaying the flop and panicking on the turn?

Let me put it differently: I don't think there's a single hand (barring 99) that I'd think is well played here, and that makes me wonder why we're putting him on a narrow range of hands that make sense only on the turn. Why are micro FR players always slowplaying their big hands on the flop but shoving them on the turn?

If someone feels they've seen a lot of showdowns in situations like this, I'd be interested in finding out what people show up with. Sort in HEM for bet/calling turn AND all-in on turn and look at like 30 hands where villain was unknown and/or seemingly bad and compile the results.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Wait, "never worse" from a reg or "never worse" from anyone at all? Because the latter I'm having a hard time believing, given that I could only assume there is at least as many completely clueless people playing NL25FR as there are playing 400NL 6Max. I guess I'm at a loss as to why someone at micro FR would ever play any hand this way (except maybe 99). Why is he raising a set on the turn but not the flop? And then shove? Is he slowplaying the flop and panicking on the turn?

Let me put it differently: I don't think there's a single hand (barring 99) that I'd think is well played here, and that makes me wonder why we're putting him on a narrow range of hands that make sense only on the turn. Why are micro FR players always slowplaying their big hands on the flop but shoving them on the turn?

If someone feels they've seen a lot of showdowns in situations like this, I'd be interested in finding out what people show up with. Sort in HEM for bet/calling turn AND all-in on turn and look at like 30 hands where villain was unknown and/or seemingly bad and compile the results.

I'll look when I get home, but it sure seems like every time I call here I see a set (maybe it's just selective memory).

We need to be good here ~40% of the time to call and I can't come up with a loose-passive's turn shoving range that gets us anywhere close.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
I'll look when I get home, but it sure seems like every time I call here I see a set (maybe it's just selective memory).

We need to be good here ~40% of the time to call and I can't come up with a loose-passive's turn shoving range that gets us anywhere close.

I don't have nearly enough of a sample to make any assumptions. I have only 6 hands where I hold an overpair and get shoved on after betting the flop and turn. I am a slight loser in these hands (.87BB/100) fwiw. If I add TP hands to the mix the sample is only slightly larger as is the loss rate.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
I don't have nearly enough of a sample to make any assumptions. I have only 6 hands where I hold an overpair and get shoved on after betting the flop and turn. I am a slight loser in these hands (.87BB/100) fwiw. If I add TP hands to the mix the sample is only slightly larger as is the loss rate.

Ah, but you don't need to look for hands where you have top pair or an overpair. You can have a quads for all I care, what's interesting is what the other guy has. You have top set, you bet flop, bet turn, he shoves, you call, he shows... what? We're looking into the idea that the turn almost never gets shoved at 25NL FR with something that an overpair beats, but we don't have to have an overpair ourselves to find out if that's true.

As a sidenote, although it's tiny, your six hands seem to dictate a clear call. Yeah, you're losing .87B, but you're losing more than that if you're folding.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Ah, but you don't need to look for hands where you have top pair or an overpair. You can have a quads for all I care, what's interesting is what the other guy has. You have top set, you bet flop, bet turn, he shoves, you call, he shows... what? We're looking into the idea that the turn almost never gets shoved at 25NL FR with something that an overpair beats, but we don't have to have an overpair ourselves to find out if that's true.

As a sidenote, although it's tiny, your six hands seem to dictate a clear call. Yeah, you're losing .87B, but you're losing more than that if you're folding.

Good point. I'll adjust my filters and run it again tonight.

Side note: I don't fold here, I just advocate it for others. My fold button broke a long time ago.
 
LuckyChippy

LuckyChippy

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 28, 2009
Total posts
4,987
Chips
0
Just a thought. When passive calling stations make hands like a flush, they...call? So he doesn't have a flush or better here like ever. It looks like the standard I'll slowplay, shit the flush, all in to scare him away retardedness.

Of course we need to know if he thinks like this with sets/2 pairs only or Qx.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
Just to be super-clear on something: I don't necessarily make this call versus a good regular. But my rule of thumb when it comes to unknowns is "don't make big folds" and it's a specific variation of the more general rule: "Don't make big folds against bad players. And unknowns are to be presumed to be bad until proven otherwise." I've often been surprised by the stuff I get shown when I make calls, but I've definitely been profitable.

Fun exercise: How often would he have to spazz out with a weak top pair hand or second pair hand in order for us to be >50% (which is obviously more than we need to call)? Basically, sum up the combos of QJ-type hands he could have (A9, AQ, QT, you get the idea) and then compare that amount to the number of flushes, sets and two pairs. I'm guessing it's somewhere around 20% which is probably too high to hope for on average, but then again we're not drawing dead against Q9, sets or some of the flushes, and we don't need 50% equity to call.

The more I look at this, the less I like folding.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Just went through the 21 100bb or greater hands I have where I bet flop and turn then called a turn shove. In those hands my opponents held:

draws: 2
TP: 2
Overpair: 2
2pair+: 15

I'd say that's pretty heavily weighted toward hands that beat us here even though my sample size is really small.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
We need ~40% equity to call. Versus your given range (might be a small sample, but better than guessing blankly) we're... what, a 2:1 dog? So what we (well, no, let's be honest - me) are hoping for is that an unknown with fishy stats will do something silly a little more often than your average sample.

But I could be wrong about that, in which case this is probably a fold. I'd probably fix that by betting bigger on the flop and the turn and committing myself. :D
 
Top