$25 NLHE 6-max: KK folded on the turn

(Rob Nufc1892)

pokerstars Hand #115307590486: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25 USD) - 2014/04/25 19:30:58 ET
Table 'Anser IV' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Rob Nufc1892 ($33.42 in chips)
Seat 2: ghasem49 ($20.92 in chips)
Seat 4: robroy06 ($18.02 in chips)
Seat 5: diacg ($36.73 in chips)
Seat 6: Zonexin ($25.97 in chips)
Rob Nufc1892: posts small blind $0.10
ghasem49: posts big blind $0.25
MerfyGSXR: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rob Nufc1892 [Kc Kd]
robroy06: folds
diacg: folds
Zonexin: folds
Rob Nufc1892: raises $0.50 to $0.75
ghasem49: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [9d 6d Tc]
Rob Nufc1892: bets $0.84
ghasem49: raises $2.66 to $3.50
Rob Nufc1892: calls $2.66
*** TURN *** [9d 6d Tc] [Qd]
Rob Nufc1892: checks
ghasem49: bets $2.75
Rob Nufc1892: folds
Uncalled bet ($2.75) returned to ghasem49
ghasem49 collected $8.12 from pot

Thoughts?

How did you determine that you should fold the turn? How scary is the Qd? If it's right to fold now, how often was it right to call the flop raise?

I remember thinking about folding the flop raise, so often it means a set, but villains will do it with nut flush draws too, especially if they know you're tight and not a station, so chose to call. Q diamonds might have been the best card for me. He doesn't have AA, QQ has me beat, TT and 99 do too. Any flush. His bet is so small it just felt like a value bet to keep me in the hand. I don't even know what I'm realistically beating by the turn, even J8s or KJ have made it.

I think Im done on the flop.

Ill quote "Any flush. His bet is so small it just felt like a value bet to keep me in the hand."
-->> I think the amount of value bet is proportional at least to the strength of the hand.

Villain is at + - 80bb which leads me to automatically think he is gonna be bad in a general sense. So this means (w/o reads, in my world) he is playing face up. Fold OTF unless you have a reason not to. Any reads on him?

hffjd2000 said:

I think Im done on the flop.

I think the amount of value bet is proportional at least to the strength of the hand.

Click to expand...

His bet OTF vs the turn bet are so different, I agree that he looks like he is afraid of the Qd. We can jam, but we have to be very sure he bets big when ahead and small when a draw hits.

Can we do that here?

Fold OTF. Am I too nitty in saying that?

fletchdad said:

His bet OTF vs the turn bet are so different, I agree that he looks like he is afraid of the Qd. We can jam, but we have to be very sure he bets big when ahead and small when a draw hits.

Can we do that here?

Fold OTF. Am I too nitty in saying that?

Click to expand...

I think you're right, were still beat, but I think it's a set rather than a flush. He's making a defensive bet on the turn to see if I raise/jam the turn. Im not confident we can fold a set though. I nearly folded OTF, I rushed the decision to call though, if id taken a few more seconds to think about it and what cards might fall on the T and R, I think id have let it go.

I think folding in this spot is not a mistake and it is really good fold, especially when you face re raise on the flop. Well played i would say.

i think you played the hand pretty snug. I would have four bet the flop after he raised our flop bet and then bet the turn as well. He could have raised our flop bet holding any pair or a draw so i think raising the stakes (4bet) would have been a good idea. Try and be more aggressive atleast when you have such a monster hand.

suby_rafael said:

i think you played the hand pretty snug. I would have four bet the flop after he raised our flop bet and then bet the turn as well. He could have raised our flop bet holding any pair or a draw so i think raising the stakes (4bet) would have been a good idea. Try and be more aggressive atleast when you have such a monster hand.

Click to expand...

KK on this board is no longer a monster. I agree about maybe re-raising the flop but what will betting the turn achieve. Qd completes the draws

GET IT IN PRE FOP!!! lol nuf said

Based on the flop raise, it looks more like a set than a flush. I don't think youve considered your odds and outs though. You hold the King of diamonds, which means if another diamond comes your highly likely to take the hand, but also you have a gutshot straight draw for a Jack, also the 2 Kings may well be outs, but should maybe be counted as just one to be safe and factor the times a set of K's wont win. That gives you 9+3+1 = 13 outs = 25%, and your pot odds alone are 8.12/2.75 = 3/1. Id be calling that all day as your highly likely to take at least a few dollars off him on the river, if not his stack.

MAth in poker... I really need to get better at that. Thank GOD im going to college

darkassassin89 said:

MAth in poker... I really need to get better at that. Thank GOD im going to college

Click to expand...

Its very handy, I'm just finished college. Did a whole module on probability and statistics last year so I'm set up to analyse almost any situation.

But it takes a lot more learning to apply it to poker ranges etc!

akaRobbo said:

I remember thinking about folding the flop raise, so often it means a set, but villains will do it with nut flush draws too, especially if they know you're tight and not a station, so chose to call.

Click to expand...

The key question involves both what holdings he might have and the probability of each. So as a somewhat simplified example, if you think he'll raise a set every time and the nut flush draw half the time, when he does raise, the probability he has a set is higher than if he'd raise the nut flush every time.

There's also the matter of how often he'll have a set vs. an FD. If we assume he has say Ad 8d to Ad Qd in his pre-flop calling range, that's 5 combos. If we assume TT, 99 and 66 are all in that range, that's 9 combos.

But since we're assuming he'll only raise his FD half the time, that means his weighted range is 9 set combos plus 2.5 FD combos. You can fiddle the numbers I've used, but once he raises and you assume his range is sets plus FDs, you have to change them quite a bit to make calling look better than folding.

Arjonius said:

The key question involves both what holdings he might have and the probability of each. So as a somewhat simplified example, if you think he'll raise a set every time and the nut flush draw half the time, when he does raise, the probability he has a set is higher than if he'd raise the nut flush every time.

There's also the matter of how often he'll have a set vs. an FD. If we assume he has say Ad 8d to Ad Qd in his pre-flop calling range, that's 5 combos. If we assume TT, 99 and 66 are all in that range, that's 9 combos.

But since we're assuming he'll only raise his FD half the time, that means his weighted range is 9 set combos plus 2.5 FD combos. You can fiddle the numbers I've used, but once he raises and you assume his range is sets plus FDs, you have to change them quite a bit to make calling look better than folding.

Click to expand...

Woah, talk about deep thinking here. This is perfect!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I get RR post flop ill start considering how many hands beat me and what is possibly in villians range!

GENIOUS!!!!!!!

See posting hands is not just for the player who posted it. ITS FOR EVERYONE