$25 NLHE 6-max: KJo bvb with nut straight but two pair on board

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $25.77
Hero (BB): $26.24
UTG: $25.35
CO: $16.22
BTN: $37.87

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K:club: J:heart:

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50, 2 players) 9:diamond: T:club: 9:spade:
SB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

Turn: ($3.50, 2 players) Q:diamond:
SB bets $2.25, Hero raises to $8.25, SB calls $6.00

River: ($20.00, 2 players) T:diamond:
SB checks, Hero

Over 126 hands SB is a 14/12/86, his SB steal is 57% (4/7) and f3bet is 100% (4/4)

Should I be checking river or can I make thin vbet say maybe <half pot?

um....merge shove?

baudib1 said:

um....merge shove?

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I don't see us getting called down with worse. I just think i would check the river.

i feel like he never has a boat here, so i think jamming might be good

vanquish said:

i feel like he never has a boat here, so i think jamming might be good

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I'm with vanquish. Plus blind vs. blind, people are going to bluff catch way more. So you're going to get more "****it, I don't believe you" calls.

Trips, J8, and maybe even AQ & overpairs could look you up, especially since they're pretty committed.

isn't his check river weak and just wanting to go ch/ch or ch/c to showdown? or could he be inducing a bet since we RR turn?

c9h13no3 said:

I'm with vanquish. Plus blind vs. blind, people are going to bluff catch way more. So you're going to get more "****it, I don't believe you" calls.

Trips, J8, and maybe even AQ & overpairs could look you up, especially since they're pretty committed.

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Trips are now a full house. I know people do dumb shit bvb but wouldnt someone with a clue just jam j8

He called the raise with something and a boat and a back door flush beats us here so check behind and see why he did that. I can't see many calling a bet with a less hand on this board texture.

There are much better spots IMO to bet for thin value.

Surely this is a check? He can realistically have like 3 hands we beat, AQ,KQ and QJ. He called your large raise on the turn so is unlikely to be floating with air, I think Tx/flush draw like JdXd is most likely and both got there on the river

mikejm said:

I don't see us getting called down with worse.

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check that river and make a note on him after you see what he was holding.

We can get called by J8/JJ/AQ/KK/AA and we can fold out a flush so I really like jamming.

ben_rhyno said:

I think Tx/flush draw like JdXd is most likely

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This is just flat our wrong, for several reasons, which I'll get to in a second...

Lets assume villain's calling range is: 99+, AQ, AT, AdKd, AdJd, KT+, QT+, JT, J9s, T9s

Now, lets assume he checks 100% of his range. Should we value bet?

46.221% { 99+, AdKd, AQs, AdJd, ATs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, ATo, KTo+, QJo, JTo }
53.779% { KJo }

Yes. Now also consider that when villain checks, his range becomes weaker, and he is less likely to have, say, QQ. Because of this, this becomes an even *better* value bet.

So why was Ben Rhyno wrong (not to pick on you)?

A) A flush is not the most likely hand for villain to have. In fact flushes make up only 3.5% of villain's river range. If you plug that range into poker razor, you get a range that looks like so:



B) We shouldn't consider "what is villain's most likely hand" we should consider his range. We try to figure out what range villain will call with and whether we have the equity to value bet against that range.

So yeah, according to poker razor, the break even point for this v-bet on the river is QJ. And I don't trust this guy to fold top pair or check a full house, so I'm firing away.

Or, in short, bet the river IMO.

EDIT - I left out J8 out of villain's range, since villain is pretty TAG.