$25 NLHE 6-max: Are my kings still good here?

Not many hands on villain (74) - he is 20/12, 3% 3bet, 37% AfQ

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($53.97)
CO ($28.74)
Button ($25)
SB ($25.51)
BB ($25)
UTG ($31.72)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K , K
1 fold, Hero bets $0.75, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 6 , 8 , 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.14, BB calls $1.14

Turn: ($3.88) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.78, BB raises to $7.25, Hero calls $4.47

River: ($18.38) 10 (2 players)
BB bets $15.86 (All-In), Hero ???

I ship the turn.
6x is unlikely to flat OOP unless we're up against someone very loose which it doesn't appear we are. He's simply repping too little, 66/88 for 4 combos, maybe 44 if he sucks.

Having said he isn't loose enough to hold 6x I do think we're unlikely to be facing a nitty 22+/AJ/AQ range seeing as villain has flatted 40% of his hands so far. People go crazy on paired boards, lets hope this guys one of them.

As played I call. If I was going to fold it would be on the turn.

Would you rather ship the turn, or call/call. I'm not sure how many draws villain has, same with weak overpairs. I think I like a shove, just can't decide how many bluffs villain could have. I'm leaning towards not very many though.

Why is folding the turn too nitty? We're against a weak reg with a low AFq who just c/rd us. I guess he can still have some bluffs(most 6s raise the flop and he doesn't have many of these) but idk. I always am never sure what to do when villain's range looks like either bullshit or the nuts

AFq means nothing after 70 hands.

Whether to call/call or shove depends on the proportion of draws to air in villains range. We don't have many hands so we'd need an extreme figure to tell us something but a very low FCB would tempt me to call/call as he's more likely to make a stupid call with over cards.

If in doubt I shove as folding spade or ace rivers to air or letting flush draws legitimately catch up is a fairly high likelihood. I'm not to keen on seeing those rivers with the limited information we have.

What do you mean it means nothing after 70 hands?

Ya hes repping a super tiny value range, but how much bluffs are in his range? The 4 isn't a great card for us to be barreling our air and he seems like a passive reg

I call.

Almost no way he has the straight. Could have tried to get cute and slowplayed QQ+ but thats unlikely as most pairs 88+ would 3bet. A6 is definitely in his range. Its possible 1010 called pre then called the flop and raised the turn and nailed the river but even that makes less sense since he'd want to protect his hand on the flop. Its been said to me a million times that fish get agro on the river. Just like everyone has said, its a super narrow range that beats you. I'm happy to get the money. I bet he shows up with something really silly like Q5s. I think He's just hoping you lay down your unpaired ace.

yeah I probably would've shipped after the turn, but regardless i still think the kings are good. they could have pocket 4s? pocket tens? theres no way they are calling preflop raises with 57. i would think so, but...

maybe they have A8, A4 suited, maybe they picked up a gutshot straight draw with a flush draw as well on the turn? i'm not sure...but I think you would be good.
of course easy for me to say, it wouldn't be my money going into the middle

I'd probably call. Maybe A6 and tried to milk it. He was BB afterall and it still amazes me how many people feel pressure to call because they started off putting the most in. Maybe possible Straight but the Flush draw was there too. It seems to me he had an 8 or a 10 and was figuring you for a busted flush draw. Not necessarily a bluff from him since 10s over 6s would beat a missed flush. You did bet a decent amount and just called once he raises. so his POV says you don't have a 6.

IDK for sure but I'd say its 2 pair vs 2 pair and KK is probably good.

This screams suited a6, k6, q6 to me.

bgomez89 said:

What do you mean it means nothing after 70 hands?

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It hasn't come remotly close to converging. Find a few samples within your database where you have played less than 100 hands and look at your AFq. It will be utterly random.

It converges much faster than AF but I'd still not expect it to be at all meaningful till at least 500 hands. At which point we'd likely have more use from more specific aggression stats such as street by street c-bet stats or raise c-bet stats depending on the scenario we face.

AF and AFq are overused crappy stats.

That and 37% isn't a low AFq.

He could be going crazy with 99/TT. Ship turn. As played, call.

Thanks for the feedback.

Agree shipping the turn would have been good.

Anyone else think his river shove looks suspicious? If it were me and I had a monster (TT, 88 or A6) I might bet less for value, like $10-12, not wanting overpairs and hands like AT to fold. Then again, I've been caught out before thinking big river bets look like bs and they have a monster (as villain intended I would imagine).

Interesting about AfQ not converging quickly, never really thought about that before.

Anyway, I called and he had As5s

micromachine said:

Thanks for the feedback.

Agree shipping the turn would have been good.

Anyone else think his river shove looks suspicious? If it were me and I had a monster (TT, 88 or A6) I might bet less for value, like $10-12, not wanting overpairs and hands like AT to fold. Then again, I've been caught out before thinking big river bets look like bs and they have a monster (as villain intended I would imagine).

Interesting about AfQ not converging quickly, never really thought about that before.

Anyway, I called and he had As5s

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NEVER EVER EVER bet less than a shove on that river with a monster! A shove is less than pot for him. Betting less is lighting $$s on fire!!!