$25 NLHE 6-max: JJ probably misplayed

J

js520

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/14/58

Really not sure on my play on every street besides pre.

888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $41.61 (VPIP: 17.96, PFR: 13.86, 3Bet Preflop: 5.80, hands: 173)
BTN: $35.87 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
SB: $32.08 (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 16.06, 3Bet Preflop: 2.80, Hands: 337)
BB: $30.00 (VPIP: 23.83, PFR: 14.84, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 263)
Hero (UTG): $33.60
MP: $3.15 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)

SB posts SB $0.15, BB posts BB $0.30

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.45) Hero has J:heart: J:diamond:

Hero raises to $0.90, fold, CO calls $0.90, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($2.25, 2 players) Q:spade: 2:club: 8:diamond:
Hero checks, CO bets $1.68, Hero calls $1.68

Turn: ($5.61, 2 players) 5:club:
Hero checks, CO bets $3.30, Hero calls $3.30

River: ($12.21, 2 players) J:club:
Hero checks, CO bets $6.10, Hero raises to $13.50, CO raises to $35.73, Hero calls $14.22

My thought process:
Flop - probably fold out everything we beat by cbetting so x/c seems to make most sense albeit it kind of turns my hand pretty face up?

Turn - thought when a 17/14 calls my utg raise his range is mainly PP's, some AQ,KQ aswell maybe. I think a lot of regs are just gonna fire 2 streets with there PP's thinking I will fold the exact type of hand I have as my hand does look quite face up. Maybe should have just folded turn?

River - Pretty sure the check/raise is the right play, right size though? Or would you lead? Wasn't thrilled when he shoved but didn't think I could fold now and he can't have many flushes
 
B

baudib1

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this is a pretty clear fire the flop/give up.
 
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baudib1

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C/F turn for sure, as played...meh...I am pretty sure he has AQcc but if he is shoving all combos of QQ/22/88 and AKcc and AQcc it's a call.
 
Deco

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I think bet/fold and check/call are both valid options vs this nit as he's not going to hold any 8x and will just have 12 combos of 99/TT for us to value town and 21 combos of {AQ,22,88, QQ} that beat us. However bet/folding protects our hand.

Turn is a fold, only reason I'm happy to take the C/C is because I don't think this nit is capable of exploiting such a line and barrelling multiple streets against our fairly transparent weak queen or strong underpair.

River I'm a bit torn between donking or a mincheckraise, I think I want to donk. I fear AQ may check back here whilst the checkraise doesn't net us much value unless AQ bet/calls as {QQ, AcKc, AcQc} makes up just one lss combo than 22/88 although I guess 55 could have bluffed the flop. Donking is completly unbalanced but again like the check/call I don't think we have to worry about balancing much vs this guy.

As played I think I fold. I'm not convinced weaker sets ship, {QQ, AcKc,AcQc is a super narrow range and we've amazing odds but it's a river 3bet, I just can;t see a weak set doing this on a flushed river.
 
vinnie

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Do you really think his range is this narrow on the river? We've done nothing to narrow his range through the hand. I think he's 3-betting AKs and QQ pre-flop (since his 3-bet is 5.8%). Even assuming he flats his entire range on the button (call it 24% because he has position and we can pretend he knows that more hands can be played there), I can see him getting to the river with a lot of hands.

Call it:
[22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo]

Then say he bets all pairs of 8s and up, all sets, Ace-high, and King-high hands to try and take it down on the flop. We don't know how often he bets when checked in position, but on this dry flop I think 81% is reasonable.

On the turn, he bets sets, top-pair or better, and picked up flush draws. That seems reasonable as a barrel-range for me. That's a low turn-barrel of 40%.

On the river, after this series of actions, we have 16 combinations of flushes. We also lose to 3 combinations of QQ. We beat 6 combinations of sets. We beat top-pair and over-pairs. But, the one-pair hands I don't see putting in a 3-bet. Anyway, I think there's more probability than we might normally assume for a flush on the end.

I guess it really depends on how often Villain will cold-call in position and if they're willing to barrel when they pick up a backdoor draw.

I might be totally off-base here. I just don't find it unreasonable to think Villain shows up with a flush here. And, once he shoves over a river-check-raise, I think it's nearly 100% certain he has the flush. Maybe his range really is narrow, I don't think it has to be, but I think he's got the flush here.
 
A

atownshend

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I think the mistake here was on the Flop, you should have bet to protect your hand and better define his. If he check-raised on the flop you should be confident he has a Q or a set. You allowed him to take the initiative, giving him more a larger range to proceed with.
 
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baudib1

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Do you really think his range is this narrow on the river? We've done nothing to narrow his range through the hand. I think he's 3-betting AKs and QQ pre-flop (since his 3-bet is 5.8%). Even assuming he flats his entire range on the button (call it 24% because he has position and we can pretend he knows that more hands can be played there), I can see him getting to the river with a lot of hands.

Call it:
[22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo]

Then say he bets all pairs of 8s and up, all sets, Ace-high, and King-high hands to try and take it down on the flop. We don't know how often he bets when checked in position, but on this dry flop I think 81% is reasonable.

On the turn, he bets sets, top-pair or better, and picked up flush draws. That seems reasonable as a barrel-range for me. That's a low turn-barrel of 40%.

On the river, after this series of actions, we have 16 combinations of flushes. We also lose to 3 combinations of QQ. We beat 6 combinations of sets. We beat top-pair and over-pairs. But, the one-pair hands I don't see putting in a 3-bet. Anyway, I think there's more probability than we might normally assume for a flush on the end.

I guess it really depends on how often Villain will cold-call in position and if they're willing to barrel when they pick up a backdoor draw.

I might be totally off-base here. I just don't find it unreasonable to think Villain shows up with a flush here. And, once he shoves over a river-check-raise, I think it's nearly 100% certain he has the flush. Maybe his range really is narrow, I don't think it has to be, but I think he's got the flush here.

yes his range is that narrow, your range is just pure fantasy. He doesn't have half the hands you give him based on preflop.
 
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swingro

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Only 22-99 , maybe some suited connectors up to KQ. He 3-bets the rest. I'm preety sure he has a set 95% of the time.It would be interesting to find that he had xy suited of clubs :D. The only hand that makes sense other than a set.Although I do not think a player with this stats is starting to bet a pair with a backdraw flush or a gutshot with a backdraw flush. He is too nitty for a play like that. I think he has his set and is pumping it up to get the money in the middle.
.
 
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baudib1

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AQcc makes perfect sense on all streets.
 
vinnie

vinnie

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yes his range is that narrow, your range is just pure fantasy. He doesn't have half the hands you give him based on preflop.

I admit my range is insanely wide. But, I don't think he's often got AQs here. This guy 3-bets 5.8% of the time. It's against an UTG raise, but you still don't think he's going to be 3-betting [QQ+, AQs+, AKo]? I guess there's a small chance that he flats the buttons with those hands.

I guess the point is moot. We both agree that it's a very high possibility that he's backed into a flush on this river. It may not make up a huge portion of his pre-flop range, but his river actions really define his hand as one that beats a set of jacks nearly all the time.
 
Deco

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I admit my range is insanely wide. But, I don't think he's often got AQs here. This guy 3-bets 5.8% of the time. It's against an UTG raise, but you still don't think he's going to be 3-betting [QQ+, AQs+, AKo]? I guess there's a small chance that he flats the buttons with those hands.

I 3bet 10% of the time but I flat these hands here vs villains with high F3Bs and no metagame.
Nits often do this as standard vs anyone, heck I used to :p
 
J

js520

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I 3bet 10% of the time but I flat these hands here vs villains with high F3Bs and no metagame.
Nits often do this as standard vs anyone, heck I used to :p

ditto, and i have quite a high fold to 3bet stat (albeit he might not know this yet) so I wouldn't expect villain to 3bet much.
Deco u said u don't mind check/calling this flop as you don't expect villain to exploit us and bluff as off our hand on later streets, so against a competent reg are you always cbetting this flop? I guess the alternative is to balance by occasionly taking a check/call line witth AQ,QQ+ on this board so that we don't always have the type of hand we have here when we check/call?
 
Deco

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ditto, and i have quite a high fold to 3bet stat (albeit he might not know this yet) so I wouldn't expect villain to 3bet much.
Deco u said u don't mind check/calling this flop as you don't expect villain to exploit us and bluff as off our hand on later streets, so against a competent reg are you always cbetting this flop?

With JJ yes. Although I wouldn't set that in stone as the right thing to do, I recall a few months back both hackmeplz and my coach telling me separately that I'm batshit paranoid if I think most 100NL regs are doing this. I'd imagine this would apply even more so to 30NL regs. It would be a nice spot to have a check/calling range as this is a spot I'm not c-betting very often. So ye I'm really unsure which is best.

If this was Q8xss I defo bet though, check/calling with the intention of folding the turn isn't an option when there are flush draws guaranteed to double barrel and fairly likely to triple, I guess we could call 2streets but we could still get bluffed off the 3rd and provide villains more numerous Qx hands with more value.

I guess the alternative is to balance by occasionly taking a check/call line witth AQ,QQ+ on this board so that we don't always have the type of hand we have here when we check/call?

When I do take check/call lines against regs I keep them unbalanced & exploitable until villain has shown me sufficent evidence that he attacks my check/calling range with triple barrels. Mostly because even most competant regs aren't going to do it. QQ would be a fine hand to test their tendencies to exploit out seeing as we block their calling range so hard.
 
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micromoi

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u hit the jack on the river u had 4% to do, so that means nothing.
if your willing to call a bet why not betting it your self and kepp control of the hand. he played right having a queen or notand he lost the pot, you played wrong but won the pot.
for me its a cbet, i will bet the turn also the onty 2hand a will worry of are QJ, KQ.
 
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