$25 NLHE 6-max: JJ in squeezed 3 bet pot

IPlay

IPlay

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PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 107.92 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, hands: 12)
UTG: 142.36 BB (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 18)
Hero (MP): 113.68 BB
CO: 57.64 BB (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BTN: 195.2 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 99 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:spade: J:club:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 9 BB, fold

Flop: (27.4 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond: 7:heart: 6:club:
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (27.4 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond:
BB bets 16.2 BB, Hero calls 16.2 BB

River: (59.8 BB, 2 players) 3:club:
BB bets 40 BB, Hero ???

Villain had not shown down any hands previously, only reads are his stats. Seemed semi aggro but very small sample size.

Any merit to betting the flop here?
 
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MinhANguyen

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Probably calling down given his stats but pretty unhappy about it. Pretty bad runout to bluff at, and the only thing he is folding out from us are maybe missed broadways that got sticky for no good reason and A-high.

Not betting flop here. We want him to bluff with missed overs and maybe some pairs + draws/GSs/turned FDs. On this type of board, I think a competent player is balancing/pot controlling strong hands like AA/KK/QQ/JJ/1010 (not saying he's competent) as well as their air. On such a coordinated board we don't get value from his missed overs and air if we bet. They aren't going to continue here. And if we're already behind we're going to be drawing super thin. So checking IP imo is better than betting.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Given hes 3bet a 3rd of the pots if have to say diff and bet flop for value.

He seems to be 3betting often and generally squeezes r wider.

So he could be squeezing with pp here or really wide given a 3rd..

Id be in stackoff mode but given the board it seems a straight is out there and this jerk got there on river.


But i think u missed a good opp to shove jj pre
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Given hes 3bet a 3rd of the pots if have to say diff and bet flop for value.

He seems to be 3betting often and generally squeezes r wider.

So he could be squeezing with pp here or really wide given a 3rd..

Id be in stackoff mode but given the board it seems a straight is out there and this jerk got there on river.


But i think u missed a good opp to shove jj pre

I was going to say, if you want to bet flop for value should we 4 bet pre?(it crossed my mind)
 
bitowl

bitowl

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Can't fold that river once you play that way vs any reasonably aggro villian. Only reason to check flop is to induce him to try to barrel you off Ax that you check back on the flop.

I'm inclined to just bet the flop and let him try to win the pot by trying to float or x/r or whatever. We have a value hand and he'll have draws and bluff catchers. Lots of people peel A high on low coordinated boards. You don't really want to see any turns, A,K,Q,T,9,5,4 are pretty scary so either you lose or he gets scared and folds bluff catchers.

Play in a way where you're decisions are easy unless you have solid reads. Bet folding or bet calling based on the absolute value of your hand is so much easier than playing passively and then guessing on the river if you have 30% vs his range. It's more tilting to play passively too.

Getting it in preflop is also an option depending on how light he gets it in.
 
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MinhANguyen

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You can only really 4-bet JJ for value against a complete maniac. Flatting JJ allows you to keep in their bluff range and weaker PP that decided to squeeze pre instead of set-mine (99/1010 specifically). I'd rather 4-bet all my value hands and some bluffs like Axs/KQo than JJ. If you 4-bet JJ against a decent player who's not a maniac, you're folding all out his marginal holdings and isolating yourself against a stronger range. You're basically turning it into a bluff but you can't really make a better hand fold, except maybeeee QQ. And if you get 5-bet shoved on, calling/folding are both gross options. You're going to see a coin flip with AK like 60-70% of the and the other times be crushed by QQ-AA.

Think hand is well played.
 
PokerNinja91

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It's also worth noting that when the BB 3bets against a EP or MP raiser then his ranges are generally pretty stronger, given that he's getting a good price to just call with his speculative and Broadway hands. Had this been in the blinds then I might 4bet JJ but certainly not here. I think post flop was played well and the river is a fold imo. I know his hand doesn't make a great deal of sense given his check on the flop, but I still think his range is QQ,KK and AA almost always here. Even if he was 3betting light with some suited connectors, given that you have taken a passive approach post flop - he's likely to check river with any pairs that he might have hit in the hope that it is good at showdown, unless he has a boat or trips which he's obviously going to shove. I just don't think he's going to do this with AK, it wouldn't make a lot of sense imo. Not to say it isn't possible, but not likely enough to make it profitable. Without reads atleast.
 
bitowl

bitowl

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Just realizing now I misread the hand. Villian had the lead but checked. So he's basically polarized to premium pairs that wanted to x/r flop and absolute nothing (unless he turns Ax into a bluff to fold out mid pairs).

I think you have to click call because you're at the top of your range. What else do you check back flop, call turn and then call river with? You need to have calling hands in your range on this river unless you're okay with playing exploitative and have a solid read that villain never bluffs here. I think people bluff here all the time even with hands that have mediocre showdown value.

I think in another thread I pointed out your call 3b% from EP was kind of high and it might be a leak... might want to filter your db and see if you're leaking.
 
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