$25 NLHE 6-max: Hit wheel on turn, how much to raise on river?

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $16.39
Hero (BB): $26.19
UTG: $32.19
MP: $38.48
CO: $25.13
BTN: $25.00

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 4:club: 4:spade:

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.00, 2 players) 3:club: A:club: 2:heart:
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.00, 2 players) 5:diamond:
SB bets $0.75, Hero raises to $3.00, SB calls $2.25

River: ($8.00, 2 players) 2:club:
SB bets $0.75, Hero raises to ???

no reads on villain as I only have 14 hands on him(43/14/60). My question is how much should I raise on the river? I know he's calling any raise with an ace but those donk bets seem like blockers for middle pairs or hell even over cards to see a cheap showdown and I want to keep them in.

I would raise a small amount on the river so he can call with a bad hand like a weak A or a 5, or maybe a medium pocket pair. I would make it 3$.

am I crazy for wanting to fold the flop?

No i think that's definitely a good play but his .50 bet seemed weak and i was just hoping he'd c/f turn + i had a gut shot

If you think he calls any Ace it's an easy shove. He's not calling any river raise with unpaired hands so we ignore those. There are tons more Ax hands in his range that there are pocket pairs unless you think he ONLY donks small with less than TP.

he's not donk betting though, he's just betting small every street but i've seen, and heard from my coach, when people make the same size bets down every street that their hand is often weak which is why i think he could have more PPs than you think

Even if he has 66-KK all in his range for playing that way that's only 48 combos. If he also plays AK/AQ/AJ/AT the same way, that's 48 combos.

So if he calls a shove with those Aces and folds his pairs (ignore hands that beat you unless you plan to raise/fold) the EV of shoving is $14.50. That means he needs to call a raise to $5.25 100% of the time for the smaller bet to be equal to shoving. If you want it to be better than shoving he obviously needs to call an even bigger raise.

Add more Ax hands to his shove calling range and he needs to call an even bigger raise still.

Shove!

baudib1 said:

am I crazy for wanting to fold the flop?

Click to expand...

Isn't this a good spot to float? Lots of players will give up on an A-high board after they take one stab at it.

That makes sense WVH but i highly doubt he plays his strong aces like this

Ok so if he's got A9/A8/A7/A6 that he calls the shove with then. I mean if you think his range is basically no Aces obviously shoving is wrong.

I'd be more inclinded to put him on a medium PP. Flop bet looks like a probe bet to see if you've got an ace. If he had an ace he'd probably play it stronger (especially on the turn) because not a lot beats him apart from a 4 or stronger ace. So i'd raise to about $2.50 - $3 on the river so he can call with a med PP. Any more and he's possibly folding.