$25 NLHE 6-max: Hard river lay down to unknown.

Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
I have only 7 hands on the villain

CO: $23.04 (92.2 bb) Villain
Hero (BTN): $26.75 (107 bb)
SB: $11.77 (47.1 bb)
BB: $9.25 (37 bb)
MP: $28.95 (115.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Kh Ks
MP folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, CO calls $0.75
Ok so he has something..limp called so initially I'm putting him on a small pair

Flop: ($2.35) 8c 4d 4c (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.75, CO calls $1.75
decent flop for kings, possible flush draw. not happy with his call here. Surely he would have raised pre with 77+, 44 is unlikely so 66 55 look fav or some sort of flush draw. I couldn't think what sort of flush draw he could have to call a 3 bet oop with. I suspect he has a pair and just puts me on AK so I'm barrelling most non club turns for value.

Turn: ($5.85) 6d (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.25, CO calls $4.25

River: ($14.35) 7s (2 players)
CO bets $11, not suprised really, i've telegraphed a big pair and a decent bluffing card arrives. He is oop so doesn't want to miss the chance to bet as I'm likely checking behind with what i've repped.
I guess he must have 55 66 or 77 in the hole all of which beat me.... any thoughts as to this laydown? I so wanted to call just to see what he had...
Hero folds

Results: $14.35 pot ($0.65 rake)
Final Board: 8c 4d 4c 6d 7s
CO mucked and won $13.70 ($6.70 net)
Hero mucked Kh Ks and lost (-$7 net)
 
Arjonius

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I guess he must have 55 66 or 77 in the hole all of which beat me.... any thoughts as to this laydown?
How unusual is it in your games at this level to see players open-limp then call an iso-raise with hands other than small pairs? Does this happen infrequently enough to narrow an unknown's range to just small pairs?

Also, it seems at least somewhat inconsistent to say he'd open-raise 77, then later that it's as likely as 55 or 66.

As for 55, while it's not an impossible holding, how likely is it that he called both your flop bet with a low second pair and then your turn bet with third pair plus a gutshot? 66 isn't an auto-call on the flop either.

I wonder what else he might play the same way. How about 98s or 87s? Or perhaps some modest 2-club hands?

IDK if I'd have called, but I think his range was more than just 55 to 77.
 
el_magiciann

el_magiciann

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Maybe you well beaten here, as you supposed. I rate this as good fold.
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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One of the reasons I struggled on this river is because I knew nothing about the villain, its the first hand ive seen him play. Personally I would fold 55 to the iso raise oop but I might call with 66 and 77 to a complete unknown. But what we do might be completely different to the villain.
Ok so what else might call 9c Tc. TJc JQc. If he is calling with a flush draw then at these staked most would fold to the poor odds offered to see the river. The flush arriving would be too obvious to assume any implied odds.
Imo this makes the low pair and gut shots a more likely hand. He makes the decision on the flop to call me down as I may be barrelling and then he hits a set or straight late in the hand. Im coming around to accepting this fold but I so wanted to call this one hoping to see a busted fishy flush.....
 
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hffjd2000

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70% of the time, I believe youre beat.
You will not believe if you call and see his powerful cards.
Most of the times, Im just like on your shoes.
Seen it.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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Imo this makes the low pair and gut shots a more likely hand.
What his most likely hands are isn't the only question. Another is whether other hands, while less likely, are still likely enough to consider when making your decision.
 
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What his most likely hands are isn't the only question. Another is whether other hands, while less likely, are still likely enough to consider when making your decision.

This is true, but - is this the first place to make your improvements?

I think that trying to improve this narrow call, which my be a thin +EV call, is going to frustrate more players than it will help them.

I imagine, looking at just the way the hand played out, that his range here is much much much wider on the river than you think.

A8s, QTc, JTc, K9c, 67, A2c (or any suited A, could even be like A9d that turned a flush draw). I think that there is a big range of hands that show up here and you beat. That being said, if this is a profitable call it is likely very very close. You are probably not making a big mistake by either folding or calling here - at least at 25nl.

EDIT- I would also not be surprised if this was a spazzy over pair as well. I have seen people limp in with TT-QQ and then call a raise OOP. So its a big range that potentially does this here.
 
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seymourflopsws3

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His range is all over the place, having no info on him I'd like to call here simply because of the possibility of missed flush draw with broadway cards, suited aces (A2-A9 I think are possible), suited connectors and I think even 1 or 2 gappers are a possibility to bluff the river.. There's enough bluffs in his range for me to call (I'm a bit of a station tbf) with but its not comfortable by any means.

I'm fine with calling or folding here, good fold.

Plus there is a definite possibility of a "spazzy over pair" and I would say there's some chance your up against AA, even though it seems unlikely AA wouldn't raise the turn.
 
Figaroo2

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As a percentage there are many more tight players than loose players at 25nl. I assume tight competant as the default position when playing a hand with an unknown. For this reason I would exclude a lot of suited hands other than the ones i mentioned originally plus i might add in Ax suited up to A8 anything above should be raising at a 5 handed table rather than limp. I Think you can exclude K9 suited or weaker two and three suited gappers in this instance. You dont see much limp calling with premium pairs. Limp raising yes but not limp calling.
 
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Ubercroz

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As a percentage there are many more tight players than loose players at 25nl. I assume tight competant as the default position when playing a hand with an unknown. For this reason I would exclude a lot of suited hands other than the ones i mentioned originally plus i might add in Ax suited up to A8 anything above should be raising at a 5 handed table rather than limp. I Think you can exclude K9 suited or weaker two and three suited gappers in this instance. You dont see much limp calling with premium pairs. Limp raising yes but not limp calling.

Get rid of that assumption when they limp.

They are not tight and competant if they limp/call.

If they are not tight and competant then their range is likely very wide.

If their range is likely very wide, then this is a very potential call - but maybe probably a fold.

Check some of those assumptions once someone clearly deviates from what basic poker thinking would dictate.
 
duggs

duggs

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fold on river looks good, I'm not thinking twice about it.

i personally love getting called on flop and turn, we are way ahead of his range, river would be a close check back if checked to.
 
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seymourflopsws3

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If their range is likely very wide, then this is a very potential call - but maybe probably a fold.
That's the worst thing about not having a read on players that limp call. I don't think you can exclude even K7s from his range. That makes it hard to get away from big pairs against them.
Tbf the board could not have ran out much worse against this opponent if it tried.
 
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