$25 NLHE 6-max: folding set on turn .too tight?

vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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Gimme some insight you animals and tell me if anyones folding this turn with the action given?

pokerstars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

Hero (Button) ($34.78)
SB ($30.03)
BB ($27.16)
UTG ($25.71)
MP ($35.21)
CO ($15.83)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4
spade.gif
, 4
heart.gif

2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $1, 1 fold, CO calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.55) 10
heart.gif
, Q
club.gif
, 4
club.gif
(3 players)
SB checks, CO bets $0.25, Hero raises to $3.28, SB calls $3.28, 1 fold

Turn: ($10.36) 8
spade.gif
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.20, SB raises to $25.65 (All-In), Hero??????? edit: villains unknown but looks fishy.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Raise the flop bigger, and I just call it off on the turn. I can't fold sets to fish.
 
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DunningKruger

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Turn bet should be larger. Flop isn't bad but you'll get more than a half pot bet from him OTT once he cold calls your 2bet for close to pot. It also sets up stacks a lot better on the river and incidentally would've made your decision here a lot easier as well.

As played I'm probably calling. You'll be running into J9 a lot here, but I don't think it's going to be the ~80% of the time it would need to be to throw your hand away. Granted, because it's SB and not CO doing this I suppose something like TT is possible, and it's also Zoom so that doesn't help our case either, but yeah a fishy unknown is still getting looked up here.
 
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ksidrew

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Pretty much never folding this to a villain who looks to be fishy. You are getting 2:1 with a set on a board with lots of draws.
I wouldn't put a lot of J9 in his range because he flats your over 4x raise from the small blind. W QQ he is prob either 3betting preflop or raising you on this draw heavy flop, so I don't expect to really ever see that. I think a set of 10s would also raise this flop more often than not so I would discount that as well. I would expect to see a lot of Qx hands that have top pair and a gutshot, top two pair, 10x of clubs and big combo draws. So yes, IMO it is too tight to be folding in this spot.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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c9h13no3 said:
Raise the flop bigger, and I just call it off on the turn. I can't fold sets to fish.
Click to expand...

DunningKruger said:
Turn bet should be larger. Flop isn't bad but you'll get more than a half pot bet from him OTT once he cold calls your 2bet for close to pot. It also sets up stacks a lot better on the river and incidentally would've made your decision here a lot easier as well.



As played I'm probably calling. You'll be running into J9 a lot here, but I don't think it's going to be the ~80% of the time it would need to be to throw your hand away. Granted, because it's SB and not CO doing this I suppose something like TT is possible, and it's also Zoom so that doesn't help our case either, but yeah a fishy unknown is still getting looked up here.
Click to expand...



Why should turn bet be bigger? Im trying to get value here and not make him fold all his drawy hands that might not be willing to call like 8 or 9 bucks. My line here is mega strong and he goes over the top and just jamms all in. I really cant see a hand that i beat playing it this way and there arent too many people jamming turn with draws especially given the line ive taken. This smells like a higher set all day long.

Just saying. Name me a few combos that i beat that play this hand like this?
 
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DunningKruger

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I felt I was pretty clear when I explained why the turn bet was too small. It doesn't have to be 8 or 9 bucks or something crazy like that, but when sizing your bet you at least want to make sure his "drawy hands" aren't getting the correct odds to call. Can't remember offhand if you know your odds and outs etc but a quick calculation shows us here that any naked straight or flush draw has implied odds to call a half pot bet (granted, villain being first to act makes it trickier to extract that final bet).

For the second part about why call the shove, as expected everyone else appears to think it's more of a no brainer call than I do so I'll let them explain that one. Oversets aren't out of the question but it's an odd way to play one on such a flop at 25NL. Again, this doesn't need to be a fishy move from a fishy player with a fishy hand very often for you to be correct in calling it off (flopping sets is hard to do let alone 2 at the same time). Relevant would be how exactly the player in question seems fishy, but for a mostly unknown player I'm with everyone else on not throwing away sets.

It appears from the hand history that you folded here, which is pretty nitty. For what it's worth, it's a good thing that you're noticing when a weakish player (is that's indeed villain is) goes out of their way to tell you they have a very strong hand after you've made two prior raises, because that's usually exactly what they turn over. I actually just read a hand on this board from John A who folded the top of his perceived range to another fishy player taking a pretty strong line given the flop/runout even though there isn't much in the way of value combos to assign the guy. A big difference here is that whereas in that other hand John was only beating a bluff on the river, you have pretty good equity still vs turned straights and that it's hard to argue that villain would play a set like this but not something like top 2 pair.
 
IPlay

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Some unknowns may have tried to trap here with AA, flatted KK pre or have AQ and jam like this because "board is getting scary" Can't really fold here.
 
vinylspiros

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DunningKruger said:
I felt I was pretty clear when I explained why the turn bet was too small. It doesn't have to be 8 or 9 bucks or something crazy like that, but when sizing your bet you at least want to make sure his "drawy hands" aren't getting the correct odds to call. Can't remember offhand if you know your odds and outs etc but a quick calculation shows us here that any naked straight or flush draw has implied odds to call a half pot bet (granted, villain being first to act makes it trickier to extract that final bet).

For the second part about why call the shove, as expected everyone else appears to think it's more of a no brainer call than I do so I'll let them explain that one. Oversets aren't out of the question but it's an odd way to play one on such a flop at 25NL. Again, this doesn't need to be a fishy move from a fishy player with a fishy hand very often for you to be correct in calling it off (flopping sets is hard to do let alone 2 at the same time). Relevant would be how exactly the player in question seems fishy, but for a mostly unknown player I'm with everyone else on not throwing away sets.

It appears from the hand history that you folded here, which is pretty nitty. For what it's worth, it's a good thing that you're noticing when a weakish player (is that's indeed villain is) goes out of their way to tell you they have a very strong hand after you've made two prior raises, because that's usually exactly what they turn over. I actually just read a hand on this board from John A who folded the top of his perceived range to another fishy player taking a pretty strong line given the flop/runout even though there isn't much in the way of value combos to assign the guy. A big difference here is that whereas in that other hand John was only beating a bluff on the river, you have pretty good equity still vs turned straights and that it's hard to argue that villain would play a set like this but not something like top 2 pair.
Click to expand...


thanks for the analysis and sharing your thoughts. I actually did fold (which i rarely do in such cases). There was something i didnt like about calling in this spot. I rarely fold sets but in very few situations i do and this is one of them. Was so gross that i had to post it and see if i can get anyone to agree with the fold but apparently i prolly made a bad choice here.


I will keep this info in mind. Esp the bit where you mention how hard it is for 2 people to hit sets at the same time.(although we should always have it in the back of our head).


thanks again krugger
 
vinylspiros

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IPlay said:
Some unknowns may have tried to trap here with AA, flatted KK pre or have AQ and jam like this because "board is getting scary" Can't really fold here.
Click to expand...


thought about this too but, NAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. even if they did have the aformentioned hands, they gotta be top aggrotards to play them this way. Not saying that it doesnt happen but not many of those fish around nowadays.
 
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Mitchel Cornodelli

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not squeezing without info, just limp and try and set mine cheaply
 
WVHillbilly

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vinylspiros said:
Just saying. Name me a few combos that i beat that play this hand like this?
Click to expand...

What combos don't you beat? TT maybe. That's about it. Fishy villains will show up with KJ, FD, 2pair, poorly played overpairs, and TPTK. You're crushing his range.
 
IPlay

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vinylspiros said:
thought about this too but, NAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. even if they did have the aformentioned hands, they gotta be top aggrotards to play them this way. Not saying that it doesnt happen but not many of those fish around nowadays.
Click to expand...

You said he is unknown and fishy though. Many fish would take this line with AA and KK
 
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beastisdabest

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Call all day. worst case you lose a lil cash, and gain major info on his play for the rest of the game.
 
Thinker_145

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Never folding this. If he really played J9 like this then so be it I am paying off.

vinylspiros said:
I will keep this info in mind. Esp the bit where you mention how hard it is for 2 people to hit sets at the same time.(although we should always have it in the back of our head).


thanks again krugger
Click to expand...
Well actually no with 125BB there is almost never a reason to worry about bigger sets. They are just the mother of all cooler hands and you can't do anything about it.

It's a pretty big deal to know that set vs set happens very rarely. Why do you think a set is worth so much? If set vs set was common in Holdem then it basically changes everything. As long as there is no straight or flush on the board you should never be worried having bottom set even against nits.
 
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