$25 NLHE 6-max: Folded AKo PF from EP?

$25 NL HE 6-max: Folded AKo PF from EP?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/10/1

Hello, first HA thread, I've read the guidelines but just in case I still get something wrong, I apologise in advance, anyway, here goes:

I'm rolled for 50NL and have taken a few shots, I've actually won about $100 at that level but I'm thinking that learning how to play more LAG/Brunson stylie is going to be helpful for beating 50NL+, so I've dropped down to 25NL to try to master this.

So I was at this table playing super aggressively, raising 3BBs if first in pre-flop, even from EP with things like SC, suited one-gappers, picture cards etc.

Had only 70-80 hands on villain and he was playing super tight, his 3bet% was 3%... So here's the hand:

full tilt poker Game #21324104116: Table Hess (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:23:20 ET - 2010/06/02
Seat 1: Pekospoika ($51.75)
Seat 2: VILLAIN ($26.11)
Seat 3: VVG123 ($25.10)
Seat 4: stanley644 ($25.67)
Seat 5: RDaddy8 ($21.08)
Seat 6: HERO ($43.51)
VVG123 posts the small blind of $0.10
stanley644 posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Kc Ad]
RDaddy8 folds
HERO raises to $0.75
Pekospoika folds
VILLAIN raises to $2.20
VVG123 folds
stanley644 folds
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO folds
Uncalled bet of $1.45 returned to VILLAIN
VILLAIN mucks
VILLAIN wins the pot ($1.85)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1.85 | Rake $0
Seat 1: Pekospoika didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: VILLAIN (button) collected ($1.85), mucked
Seat 3: VVG123 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: stanley644 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: RDaddy8 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: HERO folded before the Flop

My reasoning behind this: figured I was out of position, if I 4-bet here he might re-raise again and I won't know what I'm up against because he might just be doing it with TT+ because of how I'd been playing, but he could also be doing it with KK/AA. If I call, I have about a 2-1 chance of hitting the flop, and if I c-bet the flop without having hit, he's going to know I'm bluffing with a low-mid flop board and he'd be happy to raise me up with his pocket pair.

Just didn't seem worth the risk, considering I'd only put 3BBs in the pot at this time. Is this reasonable or not?

This spot is solved. The percentages on the right are their 3-bet percentage.

* KK+: Good against any range
* QQ: vs 3% or higher
* JJ: vs 6.5% or higher
* TT: vs 8.5% or higher
* 99: vs 10.5% or higher
* 88: vs 12.5% or higher
* 77: vs 14% or higher
* AKs: vs 3% or higher
* AQs: vs 8% or higher
* AJs: vs 13% or higher
* AKo: vs 5% or higher
* AQo: vs 9% or higher


For AKo to be a profitable 4-bet, villain needs to 3-bet 5% of the time. Good fold sir. Just be sure to check his button 3-bet rate, compared to his overall 3-bet rate. Sometimes they can be a lot higher.

Also, playing laggy isn't really that profitable. Almost all the biggest winners on PTR are tight preflop.

Ah thank you very much!

Am I wrong in thinking that you need more then just 70-80 hands on a player to trust the 3 bet stat? I usually like around 200 hands to draw conclusions from 3 bet stats.

brank said:

Am I wrong in thinking that you need more then just 70-80 hands on a player to trust the 3 bet stat? I usually like around 200 hands to draw conclusions from 3 bet stats.

Click to expand...

You go with the information you have. And after 80 hands, you can certainly tell he's not lagging it up and 3-betting 10%. Sure, his true 3-bet percentage might be 6% on the button, but even if it is, we're giving up a small edge here.

Everyone always squawks about sample size, but if you need 10K hands before the stats mean anything, the HUD is pointless. I, personally, think that even 20 hands is enough to get an idea of how someone plays preflop. At least as far as VPIP/PFR/Steal % goes. Sure, things might vary a bit, but after 20 hands you can typically lump people into categories fairly well.

Poker is a game of imperfect information. Just because your HUD stats are imperfect doesn't mean we're not using them.