$25 NLHE 6-max: Flopped nuts in multi-way pot.

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MaxiRodriguez

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 39/23/36

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $52.31
BB: $29.76
UTG: $39.24
MP: $25.35
CO: $13.55
Hero (BTN): $37.52

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has J♣ A♦

UTG calls $0.25, fold, CO raises to $1.10, Hero calls $1.10, fold, BB calls $0.85, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($4.50, 4 players) T♠ K♦ Q♥
BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, fold, UTG calls $1.00

Turn: ($7.50, 3 players) 7♣
UTG checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero ?

(BB is 22/15)

I was not 100% here on whether to continue slow-playing the hand, or to just attempt to get it in. With CO throwing out these small bets which I hadn't seem him do before possibly lead me to believe he had something pretty big.

Should I just start raising on the flop?
Or was I correct to slow play in order to allow villains to catch up?
 
No Brainer

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Is that a black diamond?
 
No Brainer

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With the rainbow flop it is fine to call the flop, especially with one left to act behind you. On the turn we need to start raising it up. CO is short stacked and this may be the reason he is betting small...

What sort of reads do we have on UTG? With the nuts I would really rather get his stack in than CO...
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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In a complicated situation, the first thing to do is to identify the facts that matter. Here's a good start:

1. You want to stack UTG. He's the guy with the big stack. CO's half stack would be nice, too, but should not be your primary target when you flop the nuts.
2. If a jack or an ace falls, you will either be splitting with someone else or will get very little extra value out of the hand.
3. By just calling the flop, your goal presumably is to keep UTG in the pot.

So far so good. Now that we can focus on UTG rather than CO, the question we need to ask ourselves is how we maximize value versus UTG. How does his range change when we call the flop versus raising it?

Any person's range can be divided into a short list of categories:
1. Air. Completely worthless. Only way to get value out of this part of anyone's range is to induce a bluff. E.g. 76s.
2. Weak made hands. Will call small bets, but nothing else. Won't stack off. Will never raise. E.g. Q8s.
3. Decent made hands. E.g. K8s. Will call larger bets. Probably won't stack off unless you convince him that you're bluffing and he makes a hero call.
4. Strong hands. E.g. two pairs on this board. Will stack off unless the board comes four to a straight.
5. Big hands. Bottom straights and sets.

Normally, I wouldn't separate 4 and 5 into two different groups, but in this hand they matter. The difference is how group 4 compare to group 5 when you raise; strong hands probably just flat (fearing they're up against an even stronger hand) whereas bottom straights and sets are more likely to reraise trying to get it in right away.

What can we say about the other groups?

1 is (almost) never coming along no matter what you do. People don't often try to bluff into multiway pots, especially not on broadway boards. This group is, in other words, not interesting to us.

2 will maybe overcall, but fold if we raise.

3 will definitely overcall, but might fold if we raise.

4 will probably reraise if we call, but just call if we raise.

5 will probably reraise no matter what we do.

And now we learn something useful: The groups we need to target are 3 and 4. Why? Because 1, 2 and 5 don't matter! 2 doesn't matter because we shouldn't be interested in tiny pots when we flop the nuts, and we can't win more. And 5 doesn't matter because we're getting it in regardless of what we do, so we don't have to care.

Normally, the next step in the analysis is to compare relative frequencies of the groups, but we don't have to: it's clear that we get the most value out of both 3 and 4 by just calling.

So we call the flop.

On the turn, you can do a similar analysis, except it's now out of the question that you're up against group 1, and it's unlikely that it's group 4 or 5, so you change your tactics accordingly: Maximize against group 2 and 3, and start eyeing CO's stack instead, because you're unlikely to get at UTG's.

I'll leave the turn decision as an exercise to the reader.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Oh yeah: Regarding slowplaying to let them "catch up": Ask yourself what hands you want to let "catch up", which card would have to fall on the turn for that to happen and how much you can expect to win versus those hands. What, for instance, would it mean for AT to catch up? How often is AT going to catch up?

Note that I'm in favor of calling the flop, but emphatically NOT because I'm hoping that someone will catch up.
 
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MaxiRodriguez

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Thanks for the in depth analysis FP, UTG was 31/12. I think seeing as he limped called pre, he could have a lot of suited connectors, one gappers and low pockets.

However his flop call I think eradicates the majority of the PPs despite the fact he's a 31/12 with the broadway flop I believe he would still fold. So leaving solely the suited connector type hands, and I believe he's the type of player that will call down to the river with any type of draw. The pot is far too small so I do like a raise on the turn.
 
bgomez89

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IMO, utg has a lot more than connectors and low pairs. A 31/12 could have a some kind of K, Q, or T and figures he's getting the right price to call.

I think if we call the flop, then we should probably call the turn too. A 7 falling on the turn doesn't improve anyone else and our perceived range(not that these guys are thinking about that), so everything that wouldn't call a raise on the flop, isn't calling a raise on the turn.

I know we should focus on getting utg all-in but i think his hand is pretty weak and we won't be able to do this unless he hits some kind of set or trips or hits a straight(which we're prob splitting with). I think we should have made a small raise on the flop because this flop hits COs range and he'll probably call with worse. Paulson said we shouldn't focus on the CO but i think this is the only person we can stack in this situation unless some kind of miracle hits the river and UTG hits a set or something.

Please correct me if you feel I'm wrong in my thinking
 
F Paulsson

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At what point in the hand did you start thinking that UTG doesn't have much and CO is the only one we can stack?
 
bgomez89

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For utg: preflop when he limp/called, the flop when he check/calls, and the turn when he checks. Just seems like a really weak line

I think we can stack the CO because he raised pre so this flop is likely to hit him and since he's short stacked he's probably not giving up TP or even MP and maybe draws
 
F Paulsson

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For utg: preflop when he limp/called, the flop when he check/calls, and the turn when he checks. Just seems like a really weak line

I think we can stack the CO because he raised pre so this flop is likely to hit him and since he's short stacked he's probably not giving up TP or even MP and maybe draws

Yes, but see: You want to raise the flop because you want to stack CO. And you want to stack CO because you think UTG is weak. And you think UTG is weak because he check/called. There's a problem with the timeline here. You want to use the information before you have it.
 
bgomez89

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I see what you're saying now.

However now that we can tell that most likely he's weak and is probably folding to a raise are you raising the turn? Like I said before if i want to keep UTG in i think we should just call here because if we raise I think only CO is calling
 
F Paulsson

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Yeah, raise turn. If CO is bad (which he probably is since he's playing half-stacked) then raise whatever amount you think he'll call with a gutshot draw (or a hand like QJ). Which is probably "a lot." If against all odds he's good, make a smaller raise so that he incorrectly thinks he has the odds to call or that he has fold equity if he shoves. The smaller raise if he's good will still give you plenty of room to shove the river and still make it near-impossible for him to fold a decent hand because of pot odds.
 
WVHillbilly

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Don't play 6-max so maybe my ranges are way off but doesn't UTG's preflop limp/call put him exclusively in the small pp camp? So we're just calling the flop to hope he can catch 1 of 2 outs?

I could be WAY off (and since I'm going to argue against Fredrik it's likely) but I think we can all but eliminate UTG having any type of hand after his action preflop and just focus on getting the smaller stack in right from the flop.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Don't play 6-max so maybe my ranges are way off but doesn't UTG's preflop limp/call put him exclusively in the small pp camp?

A 31/12 has a lot more than small pp in his limp-calling range.

Also, very nice posts, FP.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Normally, the next step in the analysis is to compare relative frequencies of the groups, but we don't have to: it's clear that we get the most value out of both 3 and 4 by just calling.

So we call the flop.

I disagree. The fact the cbet is so small - less than 1/4 of the pot - is going to severely impair our ability to build a big pot if we just call. You are missing a ton of value against category 3 with the TP and OESD type hands. Plus if you make UTG put more money in he will feel more pot committed, which is important because when CO bets small on the turn as well and you want to raise, these hands might as well fold, since UTG hasn't invested much at all and won't feel pot committed.

And we still get value from category 4 by raising which you yourself say will stack off, so category 4 doesn't matter either, only cat. 3 does.

Why is everyone so quick to let one street go? We all know in general people call a lot more on the flop than on the turn, I think we are missing out huge by flatting.
 
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MaxiRodriguez

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thought i'd post the results to this hands as they were quite amusing imo.

CO, had KK, UTG had J9o. It all went in on the turn, Q on the river lolz.
 
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thought i'd post the results to this hands as they were quite amusing imo.

CO, had KK, UTG had J9o. It all went in on the turn, Q on the river lolz.

And those hands get it in on the flop as well once you raise, which is what you want. So they don't matter as FP pointed out.

What you're missing value from is their straight draws, top pairs, mid pairs + gutshot and even 2 pairs if a 9, J, A comes or the board pairs not filling their boat.
 
bgomez89

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thought i'd post the results to this hands as they were quite amusing imo.

CO, had KK, UTG had J9o. It all went in on the turn, Q on the river lolz.

make note on the CO that says "will bet streets small with a huge hand" unless he always did that
 
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