$25 NLHE 6-max: Flop top set, do I ever fold the turn?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)

Villain is almost unknown (13 hands: 69/15/3)

UTG ($25)
MP ($29.15)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($53.78)
SB ($23.45)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10 , 10
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.10, Button calls $1.10, SB calls $1, 1 fold, MP calls $0.85

Flop: ($4.65) 4 , 3 , 10 (4 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $3, 2 folds, MP calls $3

Turn: ($10.65) 7 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $9.97, MP raises $25.05 (All-In), Hero ... ???


Was my bet on the flop too small? I figured at $3, the money's all in on the river no matter how it plays out. I guess I simply want to know if anyone here would seriously find a fold in this spot... and if so, why?

Looking at it some more, haven't I almost got pot odds to call even if he's ahead? 10 to win 40 = 25%. 10 outs ~ 20%. And if we take into account his possible 2P & FDs, then surely it's always a call?

I dont know how anyone could ever find a fold here, it would be stupid. Theres 1 hand that beats us and villain could be a fish. By the time you get raised you have like $10 left to call to win like 50, even if you knew he'd only reraise here with sets and 56 it'd still be profitable, factor that in with the fact the guy looks fishy and most fish are happy to stack with tptk, or maybe a two pair like 34 which is in his range... well played

I would be to bet the flop higher but with those stats I would not call the shove. He sounds too passive for a bluff c/r shove in that turn. You had 10 outs that would beat him if he has the straight so maybe it's ok to call but I haven't check the math.

acky100 said:

even if you knew he'd only reraise here with sets and 56 it'd still be profitable

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True, I didn't consider his possible sets (and since he limp/called then a lot of his range could be composed of sPPs). Factoring those in along with all the other crap we have crushed, his possible FD, and the single hand we lose to, it's gotta always be a call hasn't it.

@RVladimiro: his stats over 13 hands show aggression = 3. PF he seems passive, but postflop not necessarily so. But really, with 13 hands, villain = unknown.

You are right, I only considered PFR.

Your wanting to fold this is really results oriented. His stats may not be very reliable but it doesn't really take that big a sample to recognize a spewy player. Such a player can do this with any T, and smaller sets, and Ah4h or Ah3h, and probably worse.

BigThingWithHolesInIt said:

Your wanting to fold this is really results oriented.

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TBH I wouldn't have even thought about folding here... EVER. I just wanted to know if that was correct. Losing this hand made me question it, but now I've had some input and thought about it some more, I'm still NEVER folding here

Correct. Flop bet was OK. Villain stats are not reliable at 13 hands, but he is obv. spewing... if he's regularly calling PF raises with 56o then GL to him, he will be felted in no time. Overall u r crushing his range... this was just a bad beat IMO...

Snap/fist pump

bgomez89 said:

Snap/fist pump

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lol

This is how the action actually went down.

Snap/fist-pump/eh?/oh...

Easy call even though sample size on villian is small most of the time someone that is running 70/15 even after 15 hands is going to turn out bad most of the time. His stats pretty much show he is limping any two cards for the most part.

classic baluga right? if you have AT you fold because he has a set, so here you fist pump because you have top set??

Like others said this is a totally standard snap/fistpump situation. No other way to play it.
I know you said it was still all going in , but in the same situation maybe bet $7-7.50 on the turn and a straight draw/flush draw would probably call with slightly incorrect odds, and other hands like 55-99 probably won't fold either, so you can get another street of value from these types of hands.
So maybe like $1.10 pre--> $3--->$7.50----> $13.40 which is more likely to be called by weaker hands than $1.10 pre--> $3--->$10---> $10.90.
That's just me nitpicking though because the way you played makes it easier to stack off on the turn if raised or on the river IF villain is strong enough to call the large turn bet.

Another thing, against a total fish/spewtard you may be able to get called with a bigger bet on the turn even if they have draws/ weaker pairs, so it's really situation and player dependent. As I said though, you played it well and got coolered.

Cafeman31 said:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)

Villain is almost unknown (13 hands: 69/15/3)

UTG ($25)
MP ($29.15)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($53.78)
SB ($23.45)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10

, 10

1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.10, Button calls $1.10, SB calls $1, 1 fold, MP calls $0.85

Flop: ($4.65) 4

, 3

, 10

(4 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $3, 2 folds, MP calls $3

Turn: ($10.65) 7

(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $9.97, MP raises $25.05 (All-In), Hero ... ???

Spoiler

Hero calls $10.93 (All-In)

River: ($52.45) J

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $52.45

Results:
MP had 6

, 5

(straight, seven high).
Hero had 10

, 10

(three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: MP won $53.60

Was my bet on the flop too small? I figured at $3, the money's all in on the river no matter how it plays out. I guess I simply want to know if anyone here would seriously find a fold in this spot... and if so, why?

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Snap call? And raise more pre, this guy is a fish (65% even of 13 hands is a lot).