$25 NLHE 6-max: Flop stabbing on button when checked MW

Cafeman

Cafeman

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No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)

MP ($25.60)
CO ($45.65) - 21/16/2, 1.6k hands.
Hero (Button) ($25.35)
SB ($24.75)
BB ($27.56)
UTG ($26.90) - 27/21/2, cbet = 60%, Fcbet=33%, 560 hands.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4
spade.gif
, 4
club.gif

UTG bets $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.60) 3
diamond.gif
, 7
club.gif
, 8
spade.gif
(3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero ?

I'm stabbing here (with most likely the best hand) 100% of the time, however, I wonder how much I should bet?

Also I'm not too concerned about CO calling, but what if UTG planned to c/c (with 22,55,66, and overs most likely), which cards would I be looking for on the turn to double barrel? Anything up to a T? Everything?
 
bgomez89

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I'd probably throw out 2
 
Cafeman

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give up if called.
What is UTG's c/c range apart from some sort of float? In this case they both folded to $1.80 but still, when I made the bet I decided I was going to barrel most turns.
 
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baudib1

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What was your plan preflop? Was it to set mine vs. an UTG raiser? If so your odds just went out the window because you barreled off 1/4 of your stack with third pair.
 
Cafeman

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What was your plan preflop? Was it to set mine vs. an UTG raiser?
With his stats, no.

So what do you think his c/c range might be, and given that, why wouldn't we barrel the turn? (ignore my hand)
 
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baudib1

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Overcards, sets, stuff like 55-66, 7x/8x that he might not feel confident in leading as an UTG raiser into 2.

I'd barrel air, overcards and straight draws that have some semblance of equity vs. the hands that beat us but not a 2-outer.

Another way to look at it is, how much better A7 would be than your hand here. You still are behind overpairs, 8x, but you block a few combos of hands he might slowplay and have most of his overcard range reverse dominated.

Board: 8s 7c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.914% 73.29% 01.62% 126252 2794.50 { A7s }
Hand 1: 25.086% 23.46% 01.62% 40419 2794.50 { 88-33, AJs+, A7s, KQs, AQo+ }

Board: 8s 7c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.861% 48.09% 00.77% 185682 2970.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 51.139% 50.37% 00.77% 194478 2970.00 { 88-33, AJs+, A7s, KQs, AQo+ }
 
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Cafeman

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Overcards, sets, stuff like 55-66, 7x/8x that he might not feel confident in leading as an UTG raiser into 2.
Mostly agreed, although I would say a set would bet out on the flop. Which leaves him with a weak c/c range but not something I want to check to showdown vs (obviously). He either has me beat or can hit his 6 outer on the river to beat me. That's why I like a bet on the turn, because I can fold out better and not give him a free 6 outer.
 
Cafeman

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Another way to look at it is, how much better A7 would be than your hand here.
I think we're looking at this from different pov. I'm trying to attack his range. At this moment I don't want a showdown, and I believe I could get a fold on the turn. Hence my thoughts about double barrelling.

The way it looks to me, up until the point of the Turn we are playing this hand more or less the same way, except you are giving up and I'm wondering if I can still win the pot.
 
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baudib1

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Well that changes the odds you had for calling to set mine, doesn't it?

There's pretty much zero value in betting the turn if called. If we're still ahead on the turn, he's got 14%. If we're behind, we've got 4.5%. That's the definition of WA/WB.

All you're doing is making the pot big enough to make it worth bluffing at on the river.
 
Cafeman

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Well that changes the odds you had for calling to set mine, doesn't it?
I thought I'd already dealt with this.
What was your plan preflop? Was it to set mine vs. an UTG raiser?
With his stats, no.
Against a villain who is running over the table from any position, I am not simply calling on the button to setmine. It's not profitable on its own since he is opening so wide, even from UTG. Against a nit, I'm setmining and done 100%.

There's pretty much zero value in betting the turn if called.
Agreed. What I'm trying to say is, I'm betting to get a fold. I'm bluffing. That's what I meant above when I said I wanted to fold out better. Call it a second stab if you will. So many players will call a flop bet and hope you don't bet the turn and fold when you do. So many. Including me sometimes :facepalm:
 
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baudib1

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27/21 is running over the table?

As a general rule, respect UTG even if a loose player raises there and especially if a fish opens.

I just don't see bluffing without outs AND with decentish showdown value as being very profitable. It's just a weird spot to turn into a bluff. Bluff with QJ or something here.
 
Cafeman

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As a general rule, respect UTG even if a loose player raises there and especially if a fish opens.
I always consult the pop-up for positional stats. TBH I find that a player like that could raise from UTG ~ 20%. Not ideal for setmining only.
 
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baudib1

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In a hypothetical situation where he c/c as pfr it'd be really weird. It's weird that he doesn't cbet any air on the flop and if he continues without betting himself I wouldn't know what to make of it. His cbet % isn't that high.
 
JOEBOB69

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Yeah i see nothing wrong with $1.50 after the missed C-bet.Check check turn\river,or check\fold if he fires turn or river.Most people are not going to float oop.
Edit: if he raises UTG 20% and does not c-bet a lot obv why not fold or ISO?
 
Cafeman

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In a hypothetical situation where he c/c as pfr it'd be really weird. It's weird that he doesn't cbet any air on the flop and if he continues without betting himself I wouldn't know what to make of it.
This almost precisely summarises why I posted this hand. Before I bet I have to consider him calling (folding and raising are easier to deal with) and what I will do. So I wanted other opinions on his line/range and how I should deal with the turn given that he calls my flop bet. I had it in mind to double barrel. I guess giving up is also fine, but I feel as though I won't win as often by doing that.

Most people are not going to float oop.
BUT now if he doesn't want to get blown off his float? ;) (j/k)

Sure, he bets into me on the turn I'm folding. I just thought that check/check is what he would want on the turn, and we don't want to do what he wants.

if he raises UTG 20% and does not c-bet a lot obv why not fold or ISO?
His PFR is 21% and cbet is 60%. Is that low? I mean, it's not 100%, but it's still more than his fair share, especially given that he's not shy when it comes to raising pre.

Fold?! :eek:

ISO: you mean 3bet? I could have, although if he doesn't fold pre, it might take a double barrel post looking at his Fcbet... but yeah I don't hate 3betting there, especially with the CO money.

However, something I'm discovering at the looser tables is that I don't like inflating pots pre unless I have a premium hand. Maybe it has more to do with my playing style than anything, but it just feels more correct for me to play postflop with more money behind to work with.
 
JOEBOB69

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This almost precisely summarises why I posted this hand. Before I bet I have to consider him calling (folding and raising are easier to deal with) and what I will do. So I wanted other opinions on his line/range and how I should deal with the turn given that he calls my flop bet. I had it in mind to double barrel. I guess giving up is also fine, but I feel as though I won't win as often by doing that.


BUT now if he doesn't want to get blown off his float? ;) (j/k)

Sure, he bets into me on the turn I'm folding. I just thought that check/check is what he would want on the turn, and we don't want to do what he wants.


His PFR is 21% and cbet is 60%. Is that low? I mean, it's not 100%, but it's still more than his fair share, especially given that he's not shy when it comes to raising pre.
Yes 60% c-bet is low for 6 max.

Fold?! :eek:
You your self said this is not idea for set minning.Yes you have position but he can raise 20% of all hands UTG and only c-bet 60% of the time.I don't see set minning being profitable here.

ISO: you mean 3bet? I could have, although if he doesn't fold pre, it might take a double barrel post looking at his Fcbet... but yeah I don't hate 3betting there, especially with the CO money.
It's the play i would lean towards.

However, something I'm discovering at the looser tables is that I don't like inflating pots pre unless I have a premium hand. Maybe it has more to do with my playing style than anything, but it just feels more correct for me to play postflop with more money behind to work with.
To each his own.I my self do not like playing a villain that i don't think i'll get paid if i hit a set on the flop.So your playing 44 like it is KK, above his range and therefore you don't want to run him out of the pot and give him the lead in the hand?
 
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baudib1

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I know what you're saying, and we shouldn't let people trying to pot control to pot control when they want to. But in this case we should be happy to take a free SD.
 
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