$25 NLHE 6-max: Facing pot sized donk bet on the river with TPTK

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888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 21.04, PFR: 15.58, 3Bet Preflop: 4.64, hands: 395)
BB: 140 BB (VPIP: 87.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.38, PFR: 15.36, 3Bet Preflop: 6.32, Hands: 1,034)
MP: 365.2 BB (VPIP: 24.18, PFR: 19.78, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 189)
CO: 122.07 BB (VPIP: 20.39, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 310)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T:spade: A:club:

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.87 BB, Hero calls 2.87 BB, fold, BB calls 1.87 BB

Flop: (9.1 BB, 3 players) T:diamond: 4:spade: 3:spade:
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets 5.33 BB, BB calls 5.33 BB, CO calls 5.33 BB

Turn: (25.1 BB, 3 players) 3:heart:
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets 14 BB, BB calls 14 BB, fold

River: (53.1 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:
BB bets 53.1 BB, Hero ???

What should I do on the river? I didn't have any notes of that player. Do you call in this situation? What about other streets? Thank you guys ;)
 
Beanfacekilla

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888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 21.04, PFR: 15.58, 3Bet Preflop: 4.64, Hands: 395)
BB: 140 BB (VPIP: 87.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.38, PFR: 15.36, 3Bet Preflop: 6.32, Hands: 1,034)
MP: 365.2 BB (VPIP: 24.18, PFR: 19.78, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 189)
CO: 122.07 BB (VPIP: 20.39, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 310)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T<font color='black'>♠</font> A<font color='black'>♣</font>

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.87 BB, Hero calls 2.87 BB, fold, BB calls 1.87 BB

Flop: (9.1 BB, 3 players) T<font color='red'>♦</font> 4<font color='black'>♠</font> 3<font color='black'>♠</font>
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets 5.33 BB, BB calls 5.33 BB, CO calls 5.33 BB

Turn: (25.1 BB, 3 players) 3<font color='red'>♥</font>
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets 14 BB, BB calls 14 BB, fold

River: (53.1 BB, 2 players) 8<font color='red'>♦</font>
BB bets 53.1 BB, Hero ???

What should I do on the river? I didn't have any notes of that player. Do you call in this situation? What about other streets? Thank you guys ;)


Villain's bet stinks here.

Here is my mind breaking it down. I think CO (PFR) might have had a FD, or just overs. But he folded turn when board paired. He looks like a TAG from my extremely limited understanding of the stats.

Now, if BB is a thinking player at all, he must take you off JJ+, so if he does this, he thinks you might have missed. However, you have 8 hands with him, and he's played 7 of them. He seems loose, I know it's a tiny sample, but damn, 7 of 8 hands? Dude seems fishy already...

So, if he has something like 3x, why didn't he raise the turn? Even if he's going for strict value, why doesn't he bet less? So, IMO, he has either 10-8, 8-8, or you have him crushed, like he's bluffing, or he has an inferior 10x, or a goofy ass 3 that he played really passive. I really don't think he has 3x. Any huge hand he has here, we would expect a smaller bet OTR, to try and beg for a call.

So, I really think I'd look this dude up. It seems bluffy and less like value. He may even have 10x himself and he's a fish so he thinks you have AK and missed. Alot of fish do stupid ass things like bet when they should check. It's like they think betting is cool, so they bet. But if he has 10x, and thinks you missed, why give you a chance to play perfectly vs him? He should check. If he bet 1/2 pot here, I would feel more inclined to fold. So it seems like 10x maybe.

See I already kinda think he might be a fish, but not sure. But a fish may just bet 10x here, because he thinks he has best hand, even though he should probably check some K-10~9-10.

So yeah, the more I think about it, the more I feel we should call here. However, he could just be spazzing out to make sure he gets paid with a huge hand, like a boat. I still call though, because donk bets are almost always weak hands, IMO.

Call, and brush it off if dude has it.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Oh yeah, as for other streets, I think bet should be 7 BB OTF, and pot would be bigger OTT.

So then, if we get called in 2 spots, pot should be about 30 BB OTT.

So then, OTT, we bet 25 BB +/-, and if someone ships, we probably think about folding, but I don't know if we can....

Bet bigger OTF, 7BB.

Go for around 75 or 80% pot on turn, or pot if you think these fools will hang on with draws and inferior hands. Edit: we also get a bit more FE if we bet bigger OTT. This is where I really like to clamp down on draws, the turn.
 
c9h13no3

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Call that drooler on the river. This sort of desperation bluff is pretty common for more aggressive fish.
 
IPlay

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Snap call river and idk how I feel about the flat pre. I mean it's not bad but I think I prefer a 3bet. Especially against what seems to be a reg.
 
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I like the flat pre since there is a huge fish in the BB who calls almost ATC. A10o also has decent equity against CO's opening range, and we have position. I prefer flatting over 3-betting with the fish, but 3-betting without the BB fish. Plus it's not even a 3x raise.

River is probably close to EV with each other, especially with no reads other than he's a fish. If we had AF or AFq stats, it'd be helpful to know his tendencies. Fish can do this with busted draws like missed spades and 65s/65o, some 3s that don't want you to check back, 108s/108o. You only need 33% equity to call though. I suppose calling or folding are both fine.
 
Figaroo2

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A fish calls two streets on a board with obvious draws and then pots it with a brick on the end and we have TPTK = call.
If he has a 3 it's just a temporary loan and we have valuable information as to how he plays.
I might have checked the turn having been called by 2 players and not wanting to bloat it with a medium hand like this.
On bricks I can then pick off another bet from bluffs and 99 77 66 etc which might think they are good.
But betting is ok, giving free cards and is dangerous and our hand is vulnerable to overcards, your sizing on the flop and turn is fine, you should still get a call from most draws.
 
TimovieMan

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Snap-call and win most of the time. This is gonna be a pure bluff very often.

If he has 88, so be it.
 
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thank you guys! So I think my call was pretty standard then. He showed me 36o and took the pot down..But at this moment i was also thinking that this is a pretty easy call.
 
Delvuter

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Aplly Baluga Theorem here.

"You should strongly re-evaluate the strength of one-pair hands in the face of a raise on the turn.”

In this case the river. Fold.

As usual, one pair hands being over valued. Shoulda went for pot control the second you decided to call with a horrible ATo hand. Catching an A on flop sucks cause we have a kicker problem, catching the T sucks cause we never know where we are at. Folding pre here is prolly the optimal thing to do.
 
Delvuter

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Just read the reply's, I like the 3-bet pre idea. Either fold pre or 3-bet pre, calling a bet even in position with ATo is a leak.
 
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Thanks Delvuter. I agree, ATo is maybe not a standard call pre. I did so, because I wanted to give the (probably) weaker player behind me a chance to play a pot with me. I don't know if this decision was correct, but I will definitely watch out for a 3bet spot next time.

And I would have foldet to a turn/river raise for sure. However it wasn't a raise. It was a donk bet. And it was especially a donk bet on a board where the major draws missed (looks a bit fishy). So I think the "Baluga Theorem" is not applicable in that case..
 
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Calling with ATo in position against a 87 VPIP BB fish and doing alright equity-wise against an ~ 20-22% CO opening is totally standard.... I thought I was a nit at times, but Devulter you seem to want to fold everything except the nuts. Based off your post and previous posts, I'm not sure if you're actually serious or trolling, as others have pointed out. And Baluga Theroem does not apply here... We are facing a polarizing river donk of nuts or air.
 
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Delvuter

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I am sorry, I don't think ATo is a very good hand to call. I think Baluga totally applies, we know nothing about the V, only 8 hands played and he makes a huge bet on the river, that is the definition of Baluga theorem. And I said 3-bet would have been a good idea, not to many nits 3-betting ATo. I just think fold or 3-bet, not call.
 
Delvuter

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…and anyways, I am just trying to learn. I never ever claimed to be a professional. I have applied a ton of what you guys have said about the things that are wrong with my advice.
 
Beanfacekilla

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…and anyways, I am just trying to learn. I never ever claimed to be a professional. I have applied a ton of what you guys have said about the things that are wrong with my advice.


Yo, dont take it personal. I don't think anyone means to be disrespectful. People just disuss poker. They don't sugar coat things. On forums, sometimes we need thick skin.
 
Figaroo2

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There is no need to criticise the well meaning advice of other players in a thread. Just give your opinion on how you would play it and why and let the OP decide on what if any advice he wants to take.
 
IPlay

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…and anyways, I am just trying to learn. I never ever claimed to be a professional. I have applied a ton of what you guys have said about the things that are wrong with my advice.

I think it is your approach and how you kind of flame opinions that you do not agree with.

Also, even though I prefer 3 betting I don't think it is a 3 bet or fold spot. I think there is +EV in calling and 3 betting but I also think there is more EV in 3 betting because A10o is pretty meh to play multiway. If it was suited I'd lean more towards flatting.
 
Figaroo2

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I don't think its a known theory but Blackrain talks about the 'unknown factor' in his books, Basically your first big bluff on a table is more likely to get a fold simply because you are unknown and players don't know your tendencies and will give you the benefit of the doubt on the first occasion if they are holding a medium to lower strength hand.
Clearly there is a suspicion that you will be bluffing, just like in this hand here but the size of the bet means calling will be painful if you are wrong.
You see this sort of behaviour on Bovada and in zoom/fast poker where the players have fewer hands on each other/unknown and its creeping into preflop play as well. This is partly what makes this hand a call for me, if he was seriously looking for a call then why bet so big.

Just going back to the hand, I didn't comment on preflop but flat calling against tags who are going to barrel is usually burning money even in position. In this situation we have a weaker player in the blinds that we definitely want in the hand. The reg will be sandwiched and forced to play more honestly with three players in the hand.
If there is no weaker player in the blinds then 3bet or fold, here a call is fine imo
 
Delvuter

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I have tried to change my approach. I will try harder, I am sorry.
 
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You see this sort of behaviour on Bovada and in zoom/fast poker where the players have fewer hands on each other/unknown and its creeping into preflop play as well. This is partly what makes this hand a call for me, if he was seriously looking for a call then why bet so big.

This is why the overbet for value or betting big to look bluffy gets paid off more than it should. It creates a leveling war of whether or not you have it, and some people try to find reasons to hero call. And this is how I make money off people who play their hands face-up.

For example, if someone bets really big on a wet board and I have a set, I just overbet ship the flop and pretty much always get called by TPTK/overpair. The other day someone bets 5bb+ in a 7.15bb pot on J65dd as PFR from UTG. Can he play anymore face-up? His range almost never has air, and I doubt he has any combo draws. Even if he did, I'm okay flipping for stacks the rare time he does. I don't think people would really put you on a set. They'd think "why would he overbet jam the flop if he wanted a call? He must be spazzing out with a flush draw or combo draw. CALL." Imo varying your bet sizes like that is not good against a thinking player. It also loses value against BDFD and A high floats that would peel a normal c-bet sizing.

Or if someone 3-bets me huge when I have AA, especially OOP. I just ship it in. A lot of times it's AK/KK/QQ, and sometimes JJ calls off too. It looks like you're on tilting and are just spazzing out. It's also good to overbet rivers with nutted hands where you can't really rep anything and you look FOS, like rivering the wheel while all the other draws on the board missed.
 
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Delvuter

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The way I see it is it's a bluff maybe 10% of the time, and the other 90% he has it. I don't like those odds. He isn't doing that unless it's pure bluff or a hand that smashes us. He isn't doing it with something we beat like 9's.
 
Figaroo2

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This is why the overbet for value or betting big to look bluffy gets paid off more than it should. It creates a leveling war of whether or not you have it, and some people try to find reasons to hero call. Imo varying your bet sizes like that is not good against a thinking player.

I largely agree with what you are saying but in this hand this guy is just a fish often doing what he thinks is his best chance of winning the pot having missed his draws.
And I agree this is not baluga, that relates to raises on the turn.
 
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