Originally Posted by Xmaster
888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 (http://www.pokertracker.com)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 21.04, PFR: 15.58, 3Bet Preflop: 4.64, Hands: 395)
BB: 140 BB (VPIP: 87.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.38, PFR: 15.36, 3Bet Preflop: 6.32, Hands: 1,034)
MP: 365.2 BB (VPIP: 24.18, PFR: 19.78, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 189)
CO: 122.07 BB (VPIP: 20.39, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 310)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♠ A♣
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.87 BB, Hero calls 2.87 BB, fold, BB calls 1.87 BB
Flop: (9.1 BB, 3 players) T♦ 4♠ 3♠
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets 5.33 BB, BB calls 5.33 BB, CO calls 5.33 BB
Turn: (25.1 BB, 3 players) 3♥
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets 14 BB, BB calls 14 BB, fold
River: (53.1 BB, 2 players) 8♦
BB bets 53.1 BB, Hero ???
What should I do on the river? I didn't have any notes of that player. Do you call in this situation? What about other streets? Thank you guys
Villain's bet stinks here.
Here is my mind breaking it down. I think CO (PFR) might have had a FD, or just overs. But he folded turn when board paired. He looks like a TAG from my extremely limited understanding of the stats.
Now, if BB is a thinking player at all, he must take you off JJ+, so if he does this, he thinks you might have missed. However, you have 8 hands with him, and he's played 7 of them. He seems loose, I know it's a tiny sample, but damn, 7 of 8 hands? Dude seems fishy already...
So, if he has something like 3x, why didn't he raise the turn? Even if he's going for strict value, why doesn't he bet less? So, IMO, he has either 10-8, 8-8, or you have him crushed, like he's bluffing
, or he has an inferior 10x, or a goofy ass 3 that he played really passive. I really don't think he has 3x. Any huge hand he has here, we would expect a smaller bet OTR, to try and beg for a call.
So, I really think I'd look this dude up. It seems bluffy and less like value. He may even have 10x himself and he's a fish so he thinks you have AK and missed. Alot of fish do stupid ass things like bet when they should check. It's like they think betting is cool, so they bet. But if he has 10x, and thinks you missed, why give you a chance to play perfectly vs him? He should check. If he bet 1/2 pot here, I would feel more inclined to fold. So it seems like 10x maybe.
See I already kinda think he might be a fish, but not sure. But a fish may just bet 10x here, because he thinks he has best hand, even though he should probably check some K-10~9-10.
So yeah, the more I think about it, the more I feel we should call here. However, he could just be spazzing out to make sure he gets paid with a huge hand, like a boat. I still call though, because donk bets are almost always weak hands, IMO.
Call, and brush it off if dude has it.