Originally Posted by bitowl
This is such a common spot and wondering what you guys do. You 3bet AK/AQ/AJ/AT and the flop has 2 broadway cards so you have a gutshot. ie AQ on KTx. You cbet half pot and get minraised.
Do you guys think the overcard + gutshot is enough equity to peel? When there are flush draws on the flop ie KT2ddc how much does this alter your play, assuming we have no flush draw. Is jamming ever +EV here if we're in aggressive enough games?
It depends. Are we IP, OOP?
What is villain's image? What are stack sizes (need to know how much we can win dude).
If the board comes say Qd-10h-4d, and we have As-Ks, no, we generally don't want to call. We have only 3 clean outs now, instead of 4. And if we hit TP, like an ace, K-J just got there. If we hit the king, J-9 just got there. I'm not saying they have it for sure, but we open the door to a reverse implied odds
fiasco. How good will you feel against aggression with these turn cards? And furthermore, if we pair up, someone easily made 2p.
It all comes down to implied odds, villain tendencies, and what we think villain actually has. Is he going broke if we hit this gutter? That is the real question.
And when we have A-K, flop no pair and a gutter, and get raised, our opponent hit the board. Broadway cards are in everyone's wheel house.
You're kind of asking for cookie cutter advice. There are so many dynamics involved in a poker decision, it just depends on the spot.
In general, we will only call with a gutter on the flop if we think villain is going broke, and we are trying to rip the stone nuts. We don't want to have to worry about hitting broadway, but a flush is also possible. No.
Edit: Since the pot odds
you are getting laid to see one card are never going to be that good, we must also factor in how much we can win if we smash the nuts on the turn.
Seeing one card at a time, we are like 9% to rip the gutter on the turn. We'd need 10:1 pot odds to even be break evenish. Even if we get it in, and need to hit a gutter to win, we'd need 4:1ish to call, and that's seeing both turn and river. About 19% maybe?? 20%? I don't feel like using a calculator right now.