$25 NLHE 6-max: caught 4b bluffing w/ 8 high. pot committed?

JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
vil position relative 3b 33% in 210 hands, 4b 25% (5% range)

pokerstars Hand #84595057918: Hold'em No Limit (€0.10/€0.25 EUR) - 2012/08/12 7:53:47 AEST [2012/08/11 17:53:47 ET]
Table 'Pulcherrima III' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: A$ik Pl (€39.61 in chips)
Seat 2: PAHAN_13_666 (€10 in chips)
Seat 3: h3ll1982 (€30.27 in chips)
Seat 4: jostermd (€46.91 in chips)
Seat 5: jchoop (€25.91 in chips)
Seat 6: tette27 (€24.48 in chips)
jostermd: posts small blind €0.10
jchoop: posts big blind €0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jchoop [6h 7h]
tette27: folds
A$ik Pl: raises €0.50 to €0.75
PAHAN_13_666: folds
h3ll1982: raises €2.25 to €3
jostermd: folds
jchoop: raises €4 to €7
A$ik Pl: folds
h3ll1982: raises €23.27 to €30.27 and is all-in
jchoop: ?


EDIT: lol gotta stop posting while multitabling.. *7 high
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
It's a fold unless he 5-bet bluffs a ton of Ax hands.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
This is a fold even if villain 5bet bluffs every single Axs hand. If this was the case we should never be 4bet bluffing anyway.


Hand 0: 35.027% { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 64.973% { JJ+, A2s+, AKo }


Villains stats are relevant when making a 4bet bluff , fish have a habit of calling thinking they have odds. I'd also like a Kx/Ax blocker to knock down the number of KK+/AK combos I have to come up against.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
yeah it's a fold but it's closer if he doesn't jam 77-99 hands and instead has a huge bluffing range. but it's not that huge.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
if hes 3bing 33% of hands OTB, he has to be 5b shoving pretty wide if hes doing it 25% of the time hes 4b.... right?

This is going to be 1/3 or 2/6 imo. Not evidence he is 3betting 33% of the time and certainly not something we can use to deduce his 5betting range.
Assuming his 3bet% is high and he doesn't have a 0% F3B with a couple of samples I like 4bet folding Ax/Kx here.
 
M

Morracey

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2012
Total posts
9
Chips
0
Your mind should have been made up before you made the move! If you're gonna 4bet bluff with sc's you've got to be prepared to go all the way with these stacks! That said I would fold but then I wouldn't 4 bet with 67 suited cos it puts you in this sort of position where the odds are almost there, but do you really want to put an entire bi in with 7 high? especially as at best your probably a 2-1 dog!
 
acky100

acky100

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Total posts
3,523
Chips
0
Sample size :/

Also probably don't wanna open 67s if he's 3betting 33% of the time, in a steal spot like this?
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
Well morracy I totally disagree. At best I'm a 60:40 flip, with 1/3 of my stack already committed. And FYI yes I did stack here, so ye i didnt love it, but was willing
If this is a 60:40 spot obv calling is correct. If he has an overpair though I'm in bad shape

@deco, when I said he's 3bing 33% of hands I meant 33% of the time sorry lol. Over 210 hands that's a lot of semibluffs/ATC vs a tight vs 3b player. I guessed he was weak too because like I said it was just such a textbook squeeze play w/ powition that's he'd made countless times

I didn't mention this initially for integrity of analysis, but I had noticed him ~ min 5b about 3 rotations ago and this was the only time he had 5b without shoving, that time he has aces. Safe to say, when he 5b shoed I was pretty sure that I was up against AK. Whether that means I should risk calling here is a different story though but ye just though. I'd add
 
Last edited:
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
Sample size :/

Also probably don't wanna open 67s if he's 3betting 33% of the time, in a steal spot like this?

I agree about opening tighter for this reason, but I didn't open. I noticed him 3b'ing way to much with guaranteed position so I 4b w/ no pot committment.
(opener was opening wide and folding to 85% of 3bs so wasn't worried about him).

tbh i dont even mind 4b/folding here just on a pure bluff level. i only need folds like 60% of the time to make this a profitable play assuming he never calls, which imo im getting easily
 
Last edited:
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
This is a fold even if villain 5bet bluffs every single Axs hand. If this was the case we should never be 4bet bluffing anyway.


Hand 0: 35.027% { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 64.973% { JJ+, A2s+, AKo }


Villains stats are relevant when making a 4bet bluff , fish have a habit of calling thinking they have odds. I'd also like a Kx/Ax blocker to knock down the number of KK+/AK combos I have to come up against.

I have more than 1/3 of my stack in there and am winning at SD more than 1/3 of the time so if range was true this is a call isn't it? Also fairly certain JJ isnt in any micro players 5b shove range

EDIT: wow ignore this post I just reread and realised how much sense it doesn't make lol. fixing my post....
$18.91 to win $37.01 (total $55.92) gives me 36% pot odds does it not? surely this is much closer than a total write-off?
 
Last edited:
acky100

acky100

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Total posts
3,523
Chips
0
Sorry i misread the hand. But your maths seems way off for the profitability of a 4bet bluff.. 33% you sure?
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
Sorry i misread the hand. But your maths seems way off for the profitability of a 4bet bluff.. 33% you sure?

nah i meant call less than 33% of the time lol i edited instantly, my bad. need folds at least ~60% of the time (still think im getting that, general concensus at 25NL is people wont stack w/o AK, AA, KK and sometimes QQ too)
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
You need to call €23 to win €38, you're getting about 1.6:1 to call which mean you have to win this matchup about 2 out of every 3 times you run it to show a profit. I ran the matchup in PokerStove ond you're about a 2:1 dog when we run his most likely range which IMO is TT-AA and AK, AQ. The only way you make this profitable is if his 5 bet shove range consist's of unpaired low cards less than 8.

I think I played with this guy the other night.:drunken_s
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
$18.91 to win $37.01 (total $55.92) gives me 36% pot odds does it not?

Yep

surely this is much closer than a total write-off?

No this was a really extreme range just to showcase how much of a fold this is. Villain is not 5betting all Axs. We don't even know he 5bet bluffs at all. The idea of someone 5betbluffing all Axs and not 5betting 99/TT is also very extreme.

I would much rather assume villains range to be {QQ+, AK} than {A2s+ , QQ+, AK}. In reality it may have a few bluffs but not be this heavily made up of them. 56s is never under any circumstances going to be a call here and if it even comes close (it doesn't) we should not be 4betting in the first place.
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
You need to call €23 to win €38, you're getting about 1.6:1 to call which mean you have to win this matchup about 2 out of every 3 times you run it to show a profit. I ran the matchup in PokerStove ond you're about a 2:1 dog when we run his most likely range which IMO is TT-AA and AK, AQ. The only way you make this profitable is if his 5 bet shove range consist's of unpaired low cards less than 8.

I think I played with this guy the other night.:drunken_s

nah man its ~ €18 to win €37 cos of ESS. and calling isnt about being profitable, the 4b is the profitable move imo cos of how often im getting folds (hes FOS here lots), its just when he 5b ships i need to pick the best option to mitigate my long term losses.

Yep



No this was a really extreme range just to showcase how much of a fold this is. Villain is not 5betting all Axs. We don't even know he 5bet bluffs at all. The idea of someone 5betbluffing all Axs and not 5betting 99/TT is also very extreme.

I would much rather assume villains range to be {QQ+, AK} than {A2s+ , QQ+, AK}. In reality it may have a few bluffs but not be this heavily made up of them. 56s is never under any circumstances going to be a call here and if it even comes close (it doesn't) we should not be 4betting in the first place.

even vs QQ+ AK only im 31%....

also, you completely hate it as a 4b/fold every now and again considering villains position 3b stats and the math i posted before on how often i need a fold assuming he always folds or shoves?

i get that as soon as he 5b shoves either folding or calling is immediately unprofitable, im just not sure which way mitigates my longterm overall loss better. i really do think its close? however i have no idea in how to proceed working it out...
 
M

Morracey

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2012
Total posts
9
Chips
0
Okay as you have prob already guessed my maths isn't as good as it could be but does this not sort of make sense?

The pot is 52.67 if you call(your original stack of 25.91 x 2 = 51.82, plus 0.75 from original raise and 0.10 from small blind) Being careful not to double count bets as they go in from jchoop and villain.

If you call you will lose 25.91 60% of the time(going by your estimate of best chance), so 1554.6 over 100 runs, you will win 33.76 40% of the time which is 1350.4 so a net loss of 204.2 over 100 runs as opposed to 700 if you just fold to the bet.

If you're 2-1 dog then you lose about 600 so still better than just folding and losing the 7 everytime!
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
also, you completely hate it as a 4b/fold every now and again considering villains position 3b stats and the math i posted before on how often i need a fold assuming he always folds or shoves?

I don't hate a 4bet/fold I hate a 4bet/call.
A 4bet/fold is fine but I'd much rather do it with Ax/Kx hands especially if villain is either going to shove or fold.

50% less KK or AA, 75% less AK.
It cuts down on villains 5bet range considerably. Heck even if he 5bet bluffs Axs we even cut down on his bluffing range.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Just noticed this is a HJ vs Btn Cold 4bet. (missed it last time as the hand isn't converted).
Not liking 4bet/folding either anymore seeing as its based on a dodgy positional 3bet% sample.
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
Okay as you have prob already guessed my maths isn't as good as it could be but does this not sort of make sense?

The pot is 52.67 if you call(your original stack of 25.91 x 2 = 51.82, plus 0.75 from original raise and 0.10 from small blind) Being careful not to double count bets as they go in from jchoop and villain.

If you call you will lose 25.91 60% of the time(going by your estimate of best chance), so 1554.6 over 100 runs, you will win 33.76 40% of the time which is 1350.4 so a net loss of 204.2 over 100 runs as opposed to 700 if you just fold to the bet.

If you're 2-1 dog then you lose about 600 so still better than just folding and losing the 7 everytime!

I'm confused... Assuming your math is correct then whether I'm a 30% or 40% favourite it appears to me that I'm losing less by calling ?
Have you changed your mind and now agree with me? Lol
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
Just noticed this is a HJ vs Btn Cold 4bet. (missed it last time as the hand isn't converted).
Not liking 4bet/folding either anymore seeing as its based on a dodgy positional 3bet% sample.

Ye BTN is going crazy 3bing on the button, ESP vs that one particular opener.

It's an example of "don't isolate weak players too often, because other players will notice when you're doing and iso you".
I really don't think 200 hands+ is a small/dodgy sample. I like 4bing here even if the only good reason is to make him think twice about iso 3bing the initial opener
 
Top