$25 NLHE 6-max: calling 3bs OOP then c/r'ing almost any board

JCgrind

JCgrind

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so after powergrinding for platinum star, ive found myself with a ton of hands on a lot of the regs. this has opened up a few doors for me as now some otherwise unusable stats have converged nicely and now likely more accurately reflect my opponents ranges.

EXAMPLE HAND:
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jchoop [7d 7h]
ghis001: raises $0.50 to $0.75
jchoop: calls $0.75
u3meha: raises $2.25 to $3
Ashenver: folds
ghis001: folds
zbrojownia joins the table at seat #1
jchoop: calls $2.25


okay so i didnt copy over stack sizes by accident but w/e point is UTG opens and hes a nit and im thinking sweet, the whole tables deep, setmine time.
Guy in CO squeezes it. i check his stats as i now have 900 hands on him notice hes 3bing 7% from the CO, and hes 10% squeezy so not really much info there. were all deep so i opt for a call.


*** FLOP *** [6h Kd 3h]
u3meha: bets $5


i dont have notes on how he sizes bets in 3b pots, but i think most regs are smart enough to not bet 3/4, so this kinda gets me thinking hes FOS so i check his stats. his cbet in 3b pots is 80% so hes barrelling virtually everytime. Then i get back to thinking about his 7% 3b range. as far as i can tell, hes betting a merged range, including a lot of suited paint so im guessing it looks something like;

88-AA, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+ AQo+

If stick in a decent sized raise, he can only continue with KK, AA, AKo, KQs and the heart draw combos of KTs+ and QTs+. considering that he is squeezing also, i think its very likely that he tightens up a bit and consquently, lots of the lower-end suited paint drops out of his 3b range.

ill try not to lose you here...

so those combos and therefore the range of hands that can call me on that flop are like 2.7% of his 7% range, ie ~40% of the time im getting called, AND thats assuming all the suited paint stays in, if it doesnt im getting called a lot less. (say he tightens to only ATs+ KQs, for the suited stuff, then the hands that can call are 2.4% and hes only calling closer to only 33% of the time now).

jchoop: raises $11 to $16
u3meha: folds
Uncalled bet ($11) returned to jchoop
jchoop collected $16.24 from pot


so i just raise to $16, risking $16 for $11, so i only need it to work ~60% of the time to profit, and if im getting folds here 60% or more of the time its money in the bankroll..


is my logic correct? does this actually make sense? i made a few of these raises in 3b pots when i thought the board totally choked my opponents 3b range and it seemed to do well, just not sure if ive done the maths right here and therefore have actually just been getting lucky that theyve been folding to me
 
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baudib1

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I don't like it. This is going to sound harsh but don't take it the wrong way.

For starters, a pretty fundamental issue: If he's 3-betting a merged range, then 4-bet. If he's 3-betting a polarized range, you should flat. If you take nothing else from this thread, remember that.

Second, if you're going to flat 3-bets OOP, there are plenty of hands that have terrific equity vs. his range and flop a hella lot better than 77. Give me KQs or 98s or QJs all day over 77. (Give you an example. Something like QJs has so much backdoor equity to make moves on a ton of boards. QJss on Ts2h4d. C-R that board! Any 8,9,J,Q,K,A or spade gives you a backdoor straight draw, backdoor flush draw or top pair. Compare that to 77. You have 2 outs.)

Third, your raise size is too big. I don't think you get anymore FE with $16 here than say, $11 or $12. It worked this time, but you had the best hand. A thinking player says you're not repping anything at all because no way in hell you flatted AA/KK/AK twice so your range is severely capped. (Although your betsizing doesn't leave much room for many hands to continue.)

I like the way you are thinking deeply about ranges, but some of your assumptions are off. I think you did a great job of using stats and reads to your advantage, however.
 
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-Phil Ivey27

-Phil Ivey27

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I like your play Jchoop, I really do. This is the kind of thinking it takes to be a postive winner in your game.

I like baudib's post better though. Every thing he said there is right.
I really don't think you're getting away with this 60% of the time, but in this particular case I think you had a read on his bet sizing.

And yes make it $13 to go, you're risking less and producing the same result.
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

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thanks for your feedback guys.
baudib, love it, cheers. also like how youre one of the few to give back full in depth responses
 
bgomez89

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Like baudib said, a thinking player would probably assume you're FOS because you're basically saying you have a set or bluffs because of the call/call line pre.
 
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BlueNowhere

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If UTG is a nit COs range should be tighter which you don't seem to have accounted for.
 
JCgrind

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Like baudib said, a thinking player would probably assume you're FOS because you're basically saying you have a set or bluffs because of the call/call line pre.

now that i think about it, if roles were reversed, i wouldve put me on a flush draw and stuck in it with any decent pair.... lol. having said that, this is still micros. i think there are very few opponents who once put in a spot to play for stacks are thinking about what kind of range id be doing that with, more if they think theyre ahead based on their cards and the board

If UTG is a nit COs range should be tighter which you don't seem to have accounted for.

this is true, and im usually all over that, cant believe i missed it! concentration slips at the end of a 24hr sesh lol

as a side note, my cards were irrelevant in this flop play. i had planned on it preflop should the texture allow it
 
bgomez89

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Flush draw? How...?


Probably a good thought though considering you were deep(im not used to deep stacked poker)
 
JCgrind

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Flush draw? How...?


Probably a good thought though considering you were deep(im not used to deep stacked poker)

What do you mean how? I meant that if he was thinking about my line not knowing my cards it's a set or a FD
 
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BlueNowhere

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Presuming he views you as a competant reg what FD combos can you be holding?
 
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BlueNowhere

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That's like 2 combos and villain has blockers a lot to those combos.
 
JCgrind

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I can imagine AQh/AKh, anything else would be a little loose

I think I can get away with just about any suited ace or 2 paint IMO. I only flatter UTG raise and I'm like 25/19, and I generally don't fold to 3bs (40%, usually never calling OOP though but he doesn't know that). He can easily narrow me down to a set also as my stats very much indicate that I setmine- which my line also seems like pre.
If I was playing like 18/16 it would be much easier to discount FDs

Also, chances are because I was mass multitabling, he views me as a fit or fold type guy when I don't have the initiative
 
-Phil Ivey27

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OOP a call with any suited Ace or King is very loose to an over-sized raise.

I could give you KQs and AJs but that's about it. 25% isn't loose enough to include all suited Aces.

And not saying there's a read on your bet sizing, and not sure how much you started hand with, but to me it looks like a FD type raise. If you started the hand with $35 or so then you're left with $15 after popping it to $16, committing yourself. I imagine a set raises to $11 or $12 for some reason, as if they can still fold if shoved over top.

This needs to work 65% of the time right? Not so sure if it would but like I said I like your play, your forcing him to ship it if he wants to call you out on a move.
 
JCgrind

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OOP a call with any suited Ace or King is very loose to an over-sized raise.

I could give you KQs and AJs but that's about it. 25% isn't loose enough to include all suited Aces.

And not saying there's a read on your bet sizing, and not sure how much you started hand with, but to me it looks like a FD type raise. If you started the hand with $35 or so then you're left with $15 after popping it to $16, committing yourself. I imagine a set raises to $11 or $12 for some reason, as if they can still fold if shoved over top.

This needs to work 65% of the time right? Not so sure if it would but like I said I like your play, your forcing him to ship it if he wants to call you out on a move.

I agree suited ace calls are loose, bad even, but it's still real standard at 25nl, and I believe with my stats its something I can have him believe.
The reason I bet so much was because he 100% can't call like you said. He has to shove. If he's really been watching me, he'll know I flat 3bs with hands like KK AA so these are in my range here (if he'd picked up that I don't always 3b AA/KK when not in blinds, I doubt he's noticed I always do when a nit opens UTG), and the more I look at it, the more my sizing just screams nuts or air, but like noone has the balls to make these moves in 3b pots so villains think I have a set here much more than they should IMO.

Villain might've even had the FD and simply was just unwilling to stack (I think ESS was $42 pre), as he's not calling flop to Bink and fold if he misses.

I believe it had to work 60% of the time, less obv the smaller I make the raise
 
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baudib1

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If villain thinks you're competent, then he would never put you on a set here. Your range would be pretty much 99% draws. K2o is the nuts on the flop.
 
-Phil Ivey27

-Phil Ivey27

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If villain thinks you're competent, then he would never put you on a set here. Your range would be pretty much 99% draws. K2o is the nuts on the flop.

+1
 
bgomez89

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Why wouldn't villain put us on a set here if he thinks we're competent? I realize we don't know the stack sizes but assuming we're pretty deep, couldn't 66/33 play it this way?
 
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baudib1

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We don't flat 66/33 to UTG raise and 3-bet.
 
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BlueNowhere

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Yea surely sets are the largest part of our value range? If our range is something like 66/33/AQhh/AKhh it's 75% sets. The average population rarely has bluffs here so surely only those 8 combos make sense from our perspective.

Edit: Even though we're very deep?
 
bgomez89

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@baudib Because the squeezers range isnt strong enough to stack or something postflop if he doesn't hit crazy hard? Or just because if he's 3betting a utg nit, 33/66 should fold because the squeezers range is really strong?
 
JCgrind

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i dont know why you assume that he thinks i fold 33/66 pre. when deep im ALWAYS calling a UTGs open with 22-77

on top of that, lets be honest, whether its right or wrong, i probably dont because his range is super strong and were deep (let alone the fact that i did call w/ 77, even though it wasnt to set mine).

the general rule is you cant call to set mine here pre because you cant win enough long term. that theory is only true imo if you play fit or fold OTF- i dont.

EDIT: shouldnt really call it a theory, that rule.
 
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baudib1

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-- Don't know how deep you are here because you don't give stack sizes, but set-mining in 3-bet pots under 180-200 BBs is going to be baddish. If his 3-bet range is super retarded strong like KK+ it'd be OK but otherwise, no.
-- In general trying to outplay people HU OOP, especially with hands like 33, 66, 77, is going to be terrible.
-- If you have an aggressive squeezer on your left, change tables.
 
JCgrind

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i think ESS was $42, so ye, ~170BBs

his 3b range was 7%, but considering he 3b an UTG open from out of the blinds, AND it was a squeeze which wasnt something he was big on, i think we can assume that his range here was pretty damn strong.

i know i see flops with the intention to outplay wayy too often lol. i cant help it, i love it lol. but seriously, am trying to work on stopping that. im real bad with the whole, 'ugh hes making my life hard by 3bing me a ton pre, fine let him 3b, see how he likes playing for stacks post'
 
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