$25 NLHE 6-max: calling 3bs OOP then c/r'ing almost any board
so after powergrinding for platinum star, ive found myself with a ton of hands on a lot of the regs. this has opened up a few doors for me as now some otherwise unusable stats have converged nicely and now likely more accurately reflect my opponents ranges.
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jchoop [7d 7h]
ghis001: raises $0.50 to $0.75
jchoop: calls $0.75
u3meha: raises $2.25 to $3
zbrojownia joins the table at seat #1
jchoop: calls $2.25
okay so i didnt copy over stack sizes by accident but w/e point is UTG opens and hes a nit and im thinking sweet, the whole tables deep, setmine time.
Guy in CO squeezes it. i check his stats as i now have 900 hands on him notice hes 3bing 7% from the CO, and hes 10% squeezy so not really much info there. were all deep so i opt for a call.
*** FLOP *** [6h Kd 3h]
u3meha: bets $5
i dont have notes on how he sizes bets in 3b pots, but i think most regs are smart enough to not bet 3/4, so this kinda gets me thinking hes FOS so i check his stats. his cbet in 3b pots is 80% so hes barrelling virtually everytime. Then i get back to thinking about his 7% 3b range. as far as i can tell, hes betting a merged range, including a lot of suited paint so im guessing it looks something like;
88-AA, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+ AQo+
If stick in a decent sized raise, he can only continue with KK, AA, AKo, KQs and the heart draw combos of KTs+ and QTs+. considering that he is squeezing also, i think its very likely that he tightens up a bit and consquently, lots of the lower-end suited paint drops out of his 3b range.
ill try not to lose you here...
so those combos and therefore the range of hands that can call me on that flop are like 2.7% of his 7% range, ie ~40% of the time im getting called, AND thats assuming all the suited paint stays in, if it doesnt im getting called a lot less. (say he tightens to only ATs+ KQs, for the suited stuff, then the hands that can call are 2.4% and hes only calling closer to only 33% of the time now).
jchoop: raises $11 to $16
Uncalled bet ($11) returned to jchoop
jchoop collected $16.24 from pot
so i just raise to $16, risking $16 for $11, so i only need it to work ~60% of the time to profit, and if im getting folds here 60% or more of the time its money in the bankroll..
is my logic correct? does this actually make sense? i made a few of these raises in 3b pots when i thought the board totally choked my opponents 3b range and it seemed to do well, just not sure if ive done the maths right here and therefore have actually just been getting lucky that theyve been folding to me