$25 NLHE 6-max: boat on the flop vs shove on the river

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micromoi

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BTN: $21.24 (VPIP: 14.16, PFR: 9.82, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, hands: 117)
SB: $45.56 (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: $65.10 (VPIP: 13.27, PFR: 9.91, 3Bet Preflop: 1.52, Hands: 546)
UTG: $25.00 (VPIP: 18.45, PFR: 15.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 348)
MP: $23.27 (VPIP: 25.47, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 106)
Hero (CO): $25.00

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 7:spade: 7:heart:

fold, MP raises to $0.67, Hero calls $0.67, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.69, 2 players) 9:spade: 9:club: 7:club:
MP checks, Hero bets $0.60, MP raises to $2.56, Hero calls $1.96

Turn: ($6.81, 2 players) 8:heart:
MP checks, Hero bets $3.80, MP calls $3.80

River: ($14.41, 2 players) K:diamond:
MP bets $16.24 and is all-in, Hero...
 
TimovieMan

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What plays like this, and what beats you?

The only 9x hands in his range are going to be 98s, T9s and A9s (possibly A9o).
His flop raise pretty much says "overpair", although his turn c/c points to a flop semi-bluff. Most likely hand for that is JT (which got there but is dead anyway).

So AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99 with more emphasis on QQ+, 99, A9, JT, T9s and 98s.
You're beat by 3 combos of KK 1 combo of 99 and 1 combo of 98s, and you beat pretty much everything else.

Easy call.

You can curse the heavens if he has you beat, but that won't be as often as you might think. More likely this is JT trying to extract value from trips (which is your most likely holding in his eyes).
 
Matt Vaughan

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We can't really say that his flop raise means "overpair" and then toss other stuff in OTT. I'm guessing what Tim meant was that the two different streets tend to point to different things, but all the hands he mentions are possible based on flop action.

I think it's conceivable that villain would take this flop line with all his 9x (99, T9s, 98s, A9s), all overpairs (TT+), JTs, and possibly some flush draws (especially the ones that have gutters or open-ended as well).

On the turn, he could decide to slow down with overpairs, or he could have improved to a nutted hand. I think he's way more likely to continue betting with straights than boats, because the straights are vulnerable with the board so wet. He could be worried about 9x with his overpairs and be slowing down - doesn't make a ton of sense but it's possible.

So if we're pulling JT out of his likely range OTT, and assuming he doesn't spazz his FD's on the river after x/c turn, I'm not really that pumped about his likely range.

On the river, I'm guessing he would play 1-2 combos of KK this way, maybe 0.5 combos of 99 this way. There's only 1 combo of 98s, but I think he likely always plays it this way. I just don't see him getting to this point with JT unless it's MAYBE JTcc.

I think Tim kind of ignored which hands would actually do this combination of actions on turn and river. There's no way that villain plays turn this way AND ships the river with TT-QQ, AA, A9,T9, JT. If he's x/r flop with the T9 and JT hands, he's just going to continue on the turn. If he's x/r overpairs and he's slowing down and x/c turn, he's not going to suddenly ship the river.

So unless we think he spazz bluffs the river with missed draws, we're looking at probably 2.5-3.5 combos of hands that beat us, and MAYBE like 0.5-1 combo of something we beat (JTcc?? - still unsure he would play it like this).

I'm probably not realistically capable of folding this in-game, but I think we're gonna get shown 99, 98, and KK almost all the time. Gross spot but it seems like a fold to me.
 
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Yeah I agree with Scourgge. It's very unlikely he has A9s/T9s/J10 because he'd just keep barreling those on the turn with the wet board texture. It's actually very conceivable he checks a full house/quads on the turn to induce or get you to hang yourself with an overpair that didn't 3-bet pre. Or he has KK some % of the time. We have to consider what his range is based on the actions he's taken on each continuing street. Sure, he could play his 9x that way on the flop. But I doubt he checks them OTT a high frequency or at all unless he has a boat.

Folding river or calling is fine, though imo I'd prefer a fold. We're basically hoping he decided to get really creative with worse value hands or is totally spazzing out. Fwiw x/r from PFR is generally pretty nutted/very strong. Also, don't bet so small on the flop.
 
c9h13no3

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Villain is too TAGgy to have 98, 97 in his MP range, and I don't think 88 checks the flop. We're looking at big clubs, overplayed overpairs, and 99 on the flop. There are 3 combos of KK, 1 of 99. If he plays AK or AQ flush draws like this, then you have yourself a call. A fold narrows his range down to 4 combos, I think you're leveling yourself if you're that certain.
 
Figaroo2

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I'd bet bigger on the flop $1.10-20 there are a ton of flush and straight draw combos that are calling this flop.
I don't mind the call on the flop, but if he hasn't 3bet in 100 hands he probably isn't that aggressive and because he doesn't raise much I think he probably has a strong draw here. I might even be tempted to click it back on the flop here and see if he wants to gii on the flop.
There are 4 JTs and all the high club combos which aren't being blocked here, id be more inclined to put him on those hands initially.
25/16 is wide enough for him to be opening 98s from MP especially with nits on the button and BB and the SB looking fishy.
So what shoves? 98 88 K9 KK in the hole makes the most sense to me but he might have been waiting to make sure the flush draw missed before trying to get value from his own JT hands.
Man this is a tough fold, its well known of course that players can't fold a flopped full house so I look forward to seeing the result of this hand.
 
Figaroo2

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To Original poster, as no one else has commented, what was the result of the hand? Thanks.
 
IPlay

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I think it is pretty obvious that villain is a bad reg. With that said a bad reg could play AK this way, especially AKcc and could overvalue his hand on river. He can have JTs that he played awfully and he could even have a hand like AQcc that he played poorly and thinks the K is a good scare card to bluff on river. Or he wants you to think he missed his draws and shoved AA on the river hoping you will hero call.

All in all I sigh call here and expect villain to show up with a poorly played hand pretty often.
 
payck007

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Bet the turn, as played call the river. He has KQ, hearts here often enough. You really think he ONLY has QQ, KK and 44 in his range? If he has KK he would have raised the flop some percentage of the time and definitely would have with 44. QQ makes some sense I guess but he has Ahxh, KQ more than enough times to call considering your bizarre line.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Bet the turn, as played call the river. He has KQ, hearts here often enough. You really think he ONLY has QQ, KK and 44 in his range? If he has KK he would have raised the flop some percentage of the time and definitely would have with 44. QQ makes some sense I guess but he has Ahxh, KQ more than enough times to call considering your bizarre line.

Are you looking at the same hand as the rest of us? :confused:
 
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