$25 NLHE 6-max: Analysis of this 25NL misplay

K

Knittle

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This is a hand that was posted on 2+2..

Just wanted to give my analysis with it and see others comments on my analysis.

Here is the hand (NOT PLAYED BY ME)



Vs aggro villain reg who 4bets alot. I definitly thought villain would be 4betting wider pre since I have been 3betting villain very often. Think calling might be better preflop since I have been 3betting quite high vs this guy and there is a fish in SB

poker stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2976304
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $64.42
SB: $41.65 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 18, 3B: 1, AF: 1.0, hands: 229
BB: $63.08 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 3.4, Hands: 192
UTG: $52.52 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 20, 3B: 11, AF: 3.9, Hands: 1041
MP: $359.96 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 548
CO: $50.81 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 8.5, Hands: 300

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with J T
1 fold, MP raises to $1.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.75, 2 folds, MP raises to $9.50, Hero calls $5.75

Flop: ($19.75) 3 T 4 (2 players)
MP bets $6.94, Hero calls $6.94

Turn: ($33.63) T (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($33.63) 8 (2 players)
MP bets $15.00, Hero raises to $47.98, MP calls $32.98

Spoiler: Show
Final Pot: $129.59
Hero shows J T
MP shows T A
MP wins $127.59
(Rake: $2.00)


HIS NOTES ARE INCLUDED UP TOP




My analysis​

Last hand seems to be highly misplayed..

Why are you even 3betting there unless it's a very TIGHT player who you can steal from..

You should snap fold and move on. You seem to be invested to much in "sexy" hands.. like J10S. Looks cool to play, but realistically you're crushed often.. especially in this spot.

His range on the 4bet really should be AKs and QQ+ most likely KK+ like a lot of regulars @25NL.

Call is speculative on flop, yes you flopped top pair.. but are you EVER good after he raises like that? Are you hoping he has AK??

Turn is just an amazing card for you.. You have to assess his range.. You got yourself in this sticky spot in the first place.. I wouldn't check back here ever.. I'd put a raise in (assuming we cap bottom of range at AK). Might get fold from AK, and that sucks for you but.. that is the bottom of his range. He doesn't put you on a 10 here (probably AK+ as well) so you need to fire a bet here, he will call with overpairs and you get value.

The fact you checked back forced him to bet on the river to try and cap his value, you should flat and move on. You have to put a 4bet/call range at AK+.. you got coolered in sorts.. but you deserved it because you shouldn't of been involved in the hand in the first place. You should of folded once he 4bet, and moved on.


sorry, this is my analysis of the situation. Prefer others comments.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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what goes check check on the turn and bets into you on the river. wait sounds like a joke lol
 
John A

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Yeah I mean, I'm not sure why you'd want to be 3-bet bluffing someone who 4-bet bluffs a lot w/ a marginal hand. Hid 4-bet bluffing range will still likely be stronger than JT. Doesn't make much sense, even in position. There's better ways to attack this kind of player.

That aside, calling the flop is fine. If you're not going to call there and at least evaluate what they are doing or if they are giving up, you shouldn't be calling the 4-bet period. Turn I'd just bet small and hope they jam. I don't mind the check, it would be better if flop and turn texture were listed to say if check or bet is stronger, but check is ok. And river is fine as well. Opponent could have JJ+ here and just played it weak on purpose, so might as well get value from those ranges. Worse Tx's are also in his range if he's 4-betting wide.

So really the only thing is pre-flop.
 
S

string

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3betting light IP is very effective against players that fold to 3bet too much. While this is definitely a common leak at these stakes, against an aggro reg who 4bets light, 3bet bluffing is not a good idea unless hero is prepared to 5bet jam bluff. JTs is a good hand for this kind of action, since it has plenty of equity against overcards (and a decent amount even against overpairs), but ultimately I think just flatting the original raise is a lot better and much lower variance here.

Postflop was played fine. When turn goes check-check, villain is betting overpairs on the river. It's very difficult to put villain on better than JT here, and raising for value is good because hero gets called by overpairs.

Doesn't excuse the preflop play though. Why inflate the pot with a marginal holding against someone unlikely to fold?
 
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