$25 NLHE 6-max: Am I assigning the proper range here? Bluff Catch spot.

IPlay

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PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 276.2 BB (VPIP: 35.19, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, hands: 55) AF: 6
SB: 69.28 BB (VPIP: 12.20, PFR: 7.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
Hero (BB): 106.8 BB
CO: 35.48 BB (VPIP: 32.20, PFR: 8.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9:heart: T:club:

fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond: T:spade: J:club:
Hero checks, BTN bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.4 BB, 2 players) 5:heart:
Hero checks, BTN bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (34.4 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets 26 BB, Hero calls 26 BB


Pre & flop is pretty standard.

Turn could be a fold but he could be barreling here with overs/straight draws and only real value hands he has is TPTK, J10, 33, 55, 1010+ but being btn vs blind his range should be pretty wide.

TT+,55,33,AJs+,KJs+,JTs,98s,AJo+,KJo+,JTo,98o 57%

10c9h 42.87%

I only need 29% to call turn so I think it's fine?

River is the interesting spot and I only need to be right about 30% here and his bet is pretty polarizing to overpairs+ and bluffs.

TT+,55,33,KQs,JTs,98s,KQo,JTo,98o 53.33%

10c9h 46.67%

I think he x/backs all A high hands on river and I think he bets smaller with TPTK so I discount those hands so is this a correct range for the river? Am I putting too many bluffs in villains range? Even if I take away half the bluff combos I hold 33% equity on river so I think its still a call?
 
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jsh169

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You broke down this hand quite a bit, I probably would of folded the turn, also not sure if it is a clear call preflop, don't hate it, but it should be near the bottom of the calling range anyhow. I really don't see this being a bluff hardly ever on the river, especially at these stakes.
 
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Preflop: You say that this is standard, but I actually prefer to fold here against a 3x raise because T9o plays poorly OOP and without the initiative. I know that this is short-handed (only 4 players) and you are forced to loosen your range up, combined with the fact that the BTN will already have a fairly loose range, but I still think that T9o is just a little too weak to be flat-calling here OOP, especially against a 3x raise (quite large for a BTN raise). And BTN is only a 35/19 over 55 hands, so it's not as if he's getting too out of line.

Flop: As played, flop is completely standard.

Turn: I think that the range you assigned the villain is too tight here. I think that there'll be some gutshots here like AQ, AK, K9, Q8, 97, A2, A4, although the probability that he barrels his gutshots is far less than 100%, so I think you need to discount some combos to make your equity calculations more reliable. I also honestly believe that the villain could have Tx here. Villains at this level are capable of barreling the turn with hands like QT, KT and AT to extract thin value off weaker pairs and straight draws. It's a close one between folding the turn and calling down. If I am going to call the turn, then I'll plan to get fairly sticky and check-call most river cards. Otherwise, I'll just fold the turn. To be honest, I'd probably just fold here, because so many river cards will cause you a nightmare (like any J, Q, K or A).

River: As played, I'd be check-calling this river too. The brick on the river changes nothing and there are plenty of busted draws straight draws here. I do not believe that Tx is ever betting this river, nor do I believe that hands like J8s are betting here, which polarises his value betting range to TPGK or better. It's tough to say whether Ace high is going to bet this river or check back. Although hands like AQ and AK have plenty of showdown value against your busted straight draws, I think that he might still bet the river to get you off hands like 66-99, Tx and even weak Jx hands, so I'd include some (but not all) combos of Ace high in his bluffing range. The bet sizing that he chose could be indicative of either a bluff or a value bet (no dead giveaway here), so after calling on the turn, given all the busted straight draws out there and the fact that a lot of his thin value betting range won't bet the river, I'd prefer to be sticky and call this river, as per the turn plan.
 
Figaroo2

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Whatever range you assign him the dominating stat in this hand is his AF of 6. To get this high in 50 odd hands means he's double/treble barreling every hand so we call him down with 2nd pair on the basis he is doing this with his entire range. Sometimes we are beat but if you don't call down with 2nd pair you are going to get steamrollered.
 
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Whatever range you assign him the dominating stat in this hand is his AF of 6. To get this high in 50 odd hands means he's double/treble barreling every hand so we call him down with 2nd pair on the basis he is doing this with his entire range. Sometimes we are beat but if you don't call down with 2nd pair you are going to get steamrollered.

So if his AF is 6, then that means he's going to be doing a lot of thin value betting, correct? And if he's doing a lot of thin value betting, then any A, K or Q on the river is going to be a nightmare for us. That's why I don't mind folding the turn. Besides, we're going to have Jx and stronger Tx hands a lot here, so let's bluff catch with them, not with a weak Tx hand.

Although, as I said, if I'm calling the turn, then I'm planning on getting sticky with most river cards. I don't want to check-call the turn and check-fold the river against an aggressive opponent.

EDIT: A different thing to note though is that the sample size is only 55 hands, so his VPIP/PFR is going to be far more accurate than his AF (since the VPIP/PFR converges faster than the AF and thus a lower sample size is required for accuracy). Judging by his VPIP/PFR, he seems somewhat aggressive, but not over the top aggressive, so I think that that's the information we should be relying upon.
 
IPlay

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Fwiw, Jx/10x is pretty much the same hand here as in bluff catchers(AJ/KJ maybe chopping)

I did plan on folding any Broadway rivers and I pretty much agree with almost all that you guys said and pre could be a gold against the right opponents but being 4 handed against a lagish player I think it's fine.
 
TimovieMan

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Nh, imo. And you broke it down pretty well too.
 
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Whatever range you assign him the dominating stat in this hand is his AF of 6. To get this high in 50 odd hands means he's double/treble barreling every hand so we call him down with 2nd pair on the basis he is doing this with his entire range. Sometimes we are beat but if you don't call down with 2nd pair you are going to get steamrollered.


You can not get anything off of AF off of 50 hands, this stat is meaningless with this sample size.
 
IPlay

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Do you guys think I should run AfQ(or whatever it is) instead of AF? It's rare that I ever get a sample of over 50 on Bovada.
 
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It's rare that I ever get a sample of over 50 on Bovada.

I was so confused about this... I knew you were from the US and I knew you played on Bovada, yet this hand history said it came from pokerstars, so I thought maybe you moved to a different country haha.
 
Figaroo2

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John A advocates use of agg% it normalizes much quicker than AF, I have it in my hud and find it a reliable indicator even at small samples

yeah 50 hands isn't enough for a reliable read on AF but to use Vinyl's infamous quote "we all know where its heading"
 
c9h13no3

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4-handed against a LAG I suppose this is okay. It's a losing play, but maybe loses less than -100 bb/100 hands.

I assume villain doesn't fold well to 3-bets?
 
Aceplayer55

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Do you guys think I should run AfQ(or whatever it is) instead of AF? It's rare that I ever get a sample of over 50 on Bovada.

AFq takes folds into account. AF cant give you a number if he never calls.

I can write Custom Stats in PT4. If you let me know what you would like to measure, I'll code it.
 
John A

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PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 276.2 BB (VPIP: 35.19, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 55) AF: 6
SB: 69.28 BB (VPIP: 12.20, PFR: 7.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
Hero (BB): 106.8 BB
CO: 35.48 BB (VPIP: 32.20, PFR: 8.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9 T

fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 3 T J
Hero checks, BTN bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.4 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (34.4 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 26 BB, Hero calls 26 BB


Pre & flop is pretty standard.

Turn could be a fold but he could be barreling here with overs/straight draws and only real value hands he has is TPTK, J10, 33, 55, 1010+ but being btn vs blind his range should be pretty wide.

TT+,55,33,AJs+,KJs+,JTs,98s,AJo+,KJo+,JTo,98o 57%

10c9h 42.87%

I only need 29% to call turn so I think it's fine?

River is the interesting spot and I only need to be right about 30% here and his bet is pretty polarizing to overpairs+ and bluffs.

TT+,55,33,KQs,JTs,98s,KQo,JTo,98o 53.33%

10c9h 46.67%

I think he x/backs all A high hands on river and I think he bets smaller with TPTK so I discount those hands so is this a correct range for the river? Am I putting too many bluffs in villains range? Even if I take away half the bluff combos I hold 33% equity on river so I think its still a call?

Good job breaking down your hand. This is how you post a hand. :) Well done.

I wouldn't say pre-flop is standard against someone that is probably too aggressive post flop. Even 4 handed, there's better adjustment strategies than trying to call and then have hands like this play out where you small samples you're really guessing his bluffing frequencies. Instead of flatting his opens when you're OOP, open more when you have position on him. Ideally if he was to your right, then you could also 3-bet him more when he's opening first.

Any ways, I don't hate the pre-flop call, but part of what you need to answer for yourself before you call is, if I flop 2nd or 3rd pair, will I call down versus someone like this? You have to be comfortable w/ that before you even call.

As far as your range, you have to also include some strong second pair hands like AT, KT. I think someone like this will have some strong 2nd pair value hands. It is 25nl, so maybe I just put at least AT in there as a balancing point. Higher stakes probably a few more in there 4 handed.

So the question in these spots is always how often is he barrelling his missed draws? Because of course for the pricing you're getting it will be a profitable river call if we include all of those hands 100% of the time. I tend to think of it like this... the more aggro someone is, and the more competent I think they are (meaning they are aware of how others perceive them in this case), the more I discount a 3 barrel busted draw. If it's not a draw heavy board, I don't consider that as much. Because the most obvious thing that anyone semi-competent knows that is aggressive, is that they will be called down lighter on draw heavy boards.

I don't know how confident you are in a read on your opponent. But regardless, I'd tend to discount some busted draws. I'd include them all, but not 100% of the time. My range would look something more like this, which would make the river a fold:

Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board: Ts Jc 3d 5h 5d

Equity Win Tie Hand Range
26.9793% 26.9793% 0% [ 9hTc ]
73.0207% 73.0207% 0% [ TT+(100), 33(100), AKs(100), ATs-AJs(100), ATo-AJo(100), KJs+(100), KJo(100), QJo(100), 98s(100), JTs(100), JTo(100),55(40),KQo(75), 98o(75) ]

So I think it's close, and less aggressive opponents will check the turn a large % of the time if you call that flop. So when you call the turn, you have to have clear in your mind that you're confident he's still barrelling draws almost always, and you're prepared to call blank rivers.
 
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