Originally Posted by IPlay
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 (http://www.pokertracker.com)
BTN: 276.2 BB (VPIP: 35.19, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 55) AF: 6
SB: 69.28 BB (VPIP: 12.20, PFR: 7.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
Hero (BB): 106.8 BB
CO: 35.48 BB (VPIP: 32.20, PFR: 8.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♥ T♣
fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 3♦ T♠ J♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB
Turn: (14.4 BB, 2 players) 5♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB
River: (34.4 BB, 2 players) 5♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 26 BB, Hero calls 26 BB
Pre & flop is pretty standard.
Turn could be a fold but he could be barreling here with overs/straight draws and only real value hands he has is TPTK, J10, 33, 55, 1010+ but being btn vs blind his range should be pretty wide.
I only need 29% to call turn so I think it's fine?
River is the interesting spot and I only need to be right about 30% here and his bet is pretty polarizing to overpairs+ and bluffs.
I think he x/backs all A high hands on river and I think he bets smaller with TPTK so I discount those hands so is this a correct range for the river? Am I putting too many bluffs in villains range? Even if I take away half the bluff combos I hold 33% equity on river so I think its still a call?
Good job breaking down your hand. This is how you post a hand. Well done.
I wouldn't say pre-flop is standard against someone that is probably too aggressive post flop. Even 4 handed, there's better adjustment strategies than trying to call and then have hands like this play out where you small samples you're really guessing his bluffing frequencies. Instead of flatting his opens when you're OOP, open more when you have position on him. Ideally if he was to your right, then you could also 3-bet him more when he's opening first.
Any ways, I don't hate the pre-flop call, but part of what you need to answer for yourself before you call is, if I flop 2nd or 3rd pair, will I call down versus someone like this? You have to be comfortable w/ that before you even call.
As far as your range, you have to also include some strong second pair hands like AT, KT. I think someone like this will have some strong 2nd pair value hands. It is 25nl, so maybe I just put at least AT in there as a balancing point. Higher stakes probably a few more in there 4 handed.
So the question in these spots is always how often is he barrelling his missed draws? Because of course for the pricing you're getting it will be a profitable river call if we include all of those hands 100% of the time. I tend to think of it like this... the more aggro someone is, and the more competent I think they are (meaning they are aware of how others perceive them in this case), the more I discount a 3 barrel busted draw. If it's not a draw heavy board, I don't consider that as much. Because the most obvious thing that anyone semi-competent knows that is aggressive, is that they will be called down lighter on draw heavy boards.
I don't know how confident you are in a read on your opponent. But regardless, I'd tend to discount some busted draws. I'd include them all, but not 100% of the time. My range would look something more like this, which would make the river a fold:
Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator (http://acepokerdrills.com)
Board: Ts Jc 3d 5h 5d
Equity Win Tie Hand Range
26.9793% 26.9793% 0% [ 9hTc ]
73.0207% 73.0207% 0% [ TT+(100), 33(100), AKs(100), ATs-AJs(100), ATo-AJo(100), KJs+(100), KJo(100), QJo(100), 98s(100), JTs(100), JTo(100),55(40),KQo(75), 98o(75) ]
So I think it's close, and less aggressive opponents will check the turn a large % of the time if you call that flop. So when you call the turn, you have to have clear in your mind that you're confident he's still barrelling draws almost always, and you're prepared to call blank rivers.