$25 NLHE 6-max: always fold flop?

N

nidal55

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/17/2

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 105.16 BB (VPIP: 23.60, PFR: 20.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.95, hands: 278)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (MP): 148.8 BB
CO: 71.44 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
BTN: 127.96 BB (VPIP: 23.50, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 3.61, Hands: 227)
SB: 80.88 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 136)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q:spade: Q:heart:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, BTN raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 9 BB, fold (Hero? hes 7% 3b but its all value i guess according to size but never fold at this spot standard flat right?)

Flop: (28.4 BB, 2 players) J:spade: K:spade: K:club:
Hero checks, BTN bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB (Hero? according to value ranges here i think i should fold but dont know how much hes squeezing in general. think bad call what do u think?)

Turn: (56.4 BB, 2 players) 8:heart:
Hero checks, BTN checks ( he always checks here only AA,JJ right?)

River: (56.4 BB, 2 players) 4:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets 34 BB, fold (guess AA spewed fine now i can fold:) )

BTN wins 53.88 BB
 
igySK

igySK

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i would be all that comfortable but I think you played it fine, if we were 100BB deep then I'd 4bet preflop. It depends if he can have Jx in his range but I think he'd make the thin value-bet smaller on river so c/f is pretty standard.
 
Blobweird123

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Calling the river and not folding flop.
 
JCgrind

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with QQ at these stakes, 4b pre makes no sense imo. reg villains never call worse so youre either crushed or flipping. for this reason, my preferred line OOP w QQ is to flat the 3b, then check/shove all non AK flops. if they then roll AA/KK, whatever, but at least now med overpairs 88-JJ will sometimes call, and youre way better off when they have AK (as that plays better over all streets than just the flop obviously)

i like the way this hands played, but im still calling river (villain knows you never have a king here because youd bet it on the river after he checks back the turn 100% of the time)
 
loafes

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Is making a blocking bet of like 20bbs on river a valid play? or is that line too fishy
 
Blobweird123

Blobweird123

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Is making a blocking bet of like 20bbs on river a valid play? or is that line too fishy

Nah I think x/c is better. Hes gonna fire Jx enough here.
 
Aces2w1n

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Bet like you have never spewed before! :)
 
John A

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I think you played it fine, until the river fold. If he's 3-betting 7% of hands, then he's likely at least 3-betting 10% or so from the button. So you're looking at a pretty wide range considering it's a prime squeeze spot. He's not very aggressive post flop, but 10% is something like this (this is actually 9.8%):

Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board: Js Ks Kc

equity Win Tie Hand Range
67.4968% 66.816% 0.6807% [ QsQh ]
32.5032% 31.8225% 0.6807% [ JJ+(100), A8s+(100), A8o+(100), KQs(100), As5s(100), As4s(100), As6s(100), As7s(100), Ts9s(100), 9s8s(100) ]

Pretty much all of those hands would c-bet this flop, check turn, and maybe take a desperate, but bad bluff attempt. You're getting 2.6:1, so it's a pretty easy call. You just need him to bluff 28% of the time or more for it to be a profitable call.
 
John A

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Nm, I think you meant 7% from button. I thought you meant 7% total. It's still a call, but it's much closer.
 
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baudib1

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I'd pretty much 4-bet this all the time pre. As played I think river is a fold as we block so so many possible big draws; but then many people flat monsters and 3-bet trash from the BTN at these stakes -- for someone with the stats of a meh-ordinary TAG, that's about as fancy as it gets at this level.
 
vinylspiros

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/17/2

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 105.16 BB (VPIP: 23.60, PFR: 20.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.95, Hands: 278)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (MP): 148.8 BB
CO: 71.44 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
BTN: 127.96 BB (VPIP: 23.50, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 3.61, Hands: 227)
SB: 80.88 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 136)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, BTN raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 9 BB, fold (Hero? hes 7% 3b but its all value i guess according to size but never fold at this spot standard flat right?)

Flop: (28.4 BB, 2 players) J K K
Hero checks, BTN bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB (Hero? according to value ranges here i think i should fold but dont know how much hes squeezing in general. think bad call what do u think?)

Turn: (56.4 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN checks ( he always checks here only AA,JJ right?)

River: (56.4 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 34 BB, fold (guess AA spewed fine now i can fold:) )

BTN wins 53.88 BB


^^^^^^^^^^^^^It looks like his 3bet is 3.6 and not 7 like you say which makes this a much easier fold i think.
 
pocketehs

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with QQ at these stakes, 4b pre makes no sense imo. reg villains never call worse so youre either crushed or flipping. for this reason, my preferred line OOP w QQ is to flat the 3b, then check/shove all non AK flops. if they then roll AA/KK, whatever, but at least now med overpairs 88-JJ will sometimes call, and youre way better off when they have AK (as that plays better over all streets than just the flop obviously)

i like the way this hands played, but im still calling river (villain knows you never have a king here because youd bet it on the river after he checks back the turn 100% of the time)

I really agree with this. I think in order for us to want to 4bet/GII here we want villain to be 5bet jamming like TT and JJ as well or else isn't it just increasing our variance? Vs a reg villain.

Does this change though vs fish? Ive got into the habit of thinking that the timer over the fish counts down over the number of hands we play which means less opportunity to bust him (got it from some vid). But I guess fish also have wider ranges..
 
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cpgd176

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You played the hand pretty good in my opinion. But i think if you are calling the flop, you have to be calling the river when the 4d peels. This card, and also the turn 8h almost never help villain's range and when he does pair these cards he is less likely to bluff as he now has show down value, especially when you check both streets. To fold the river you basically have to put villain on exactly AA. Any Kx hand I think would likely fire all 3 streets with turn and river being such blanks. Also JJ would always fire all 3 streets and try to build a pot thinking you can have QQ, Kx, AA, maybe even 1010. I don't think he ever bets Jx hands as again he does have great show down value with these hands and is not beat much that you can call the flop with. Overall, I think the river is a call.
 
JCgrind

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^ i really like/agree with the post above too


Is making a blocking bet of like 20bbs on river a valid play? or is that line too fishy

i think its too passive and loses value

^^^^^^^^^^^^^It looks like his 3bet is 3.6 and not 7 like you say which makes this a much easier fold i think.

no it isnt. his overall 3b is 3.6, but his positional 3b from the BTN is 7%. obv positional is much more relevant.

I really agree with this. I think in order for us to want to 4bet/GII here we want villain to be 5bet jamming like TT and JJ as well or else isn't it just increasing our variance? Vs a reg villain.

a little more variance i suppose ye, but its moreso just costing us money since vil is rarely calling off JJ, sometimes calling of AK, but always calling off AA/KK. we just make more money underrepping our range imo
(only times i ever see competent'ish villans calling off JJ pre at 10NL is BvB, esp ones with nit 3b stats like this guy)

im not gunna base getting it in pre just on whether someones fishy. when i 4b, i pretty much always make a small one like 2.2x the 3b, and dont 4b shove. people at this stake will flat IP way more than they should which will be epic for QQ, and more people will 5b spew. just vil dependent
 
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