Originally Posted by Lemlywinks
I'm always hesitant to question any move made by FP, but I kinda side with Deco here. Fish that you have will call off lots of 3bets with garbage at 25nl from my experience this month. I don't have those stats (co-pilot beta version) but I still feel like less hero calls will be made < more spew postflop
It's of course fine to disagree with me.
Now, just to point out something here: You're saying that the 3-bet (squeeze) is for value, which is why we don't want to shove. And the reason it's for value is that we will get action postflop from weaker hands. So far, it's all good.
The problem lies in the assumption that postflop, their hands will on average be weaker than ours. I'm not at all convinced that that's true. I mean, 2/3rds of the time on the flop, we'll have ace-high. If they call preflop with KQ, we're not getting much value out of c-bet unless they peel with king high, or unless they paired their queen. Of course, we could fall back on a strategy where we don't c-bet unless we pair up, but I don't think that's a good idea and I don't think you think so either. In order to show a profit postflop, we need our opponent(s) to fold small pocket pairs on scary boards. We need the postflop fold equity to make this profitable.
... and here is the crux of the matter. We 3-bet because we think we have postflop value, but we also need them to fold postflop. Or differently put, we're counting on our opponents to be tight with the hands that beat ours but loose with the hands that we beat.
Now, having said all that, it's really, really hard to guess how postflop will work out, which is why I think situations like these are best worked out looking at (large:ish) samples of actual situations and try to draw some conclusions from that. Personally, I'm still leaning towards us not being profitable with AK out of position in a big pot once we see the flop, but I can be persuaded otherwise if anyone has data proving me wrong.