$25 NLHE 6-max: AK in 4-bet pot OOP: whiffs flop

$25 NL HE 6-max: AK in 4-bet pot OOP: whiffs flop

I admit I was somewhat lost here but felt like there was too much money to just give up. I really don't know what most people's 4-bet flatting range is but I suppose he can flat AK on occasion when he's IP with effective stacks this deep. Let's assume his flatting range is

AQs+, 88-QQ

That'snd 12 combos of A-high that he'll probably fold and 27 combos of pairs/boats he'll continue with. If he flats with a better hand, we have 25% equity vs. his continuing range, but let's say we can only make our hand on the turn and/or get to the river and make our hand 20% of the time (because sometimes if we check a blank turn he'll bet us off).

If villain can ever fold TT or 88 then a half-pot bet on the flop seems like it should be profitable for us, or is my math totally off?

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($34.13)
UTG+1 ($53.89)
CO ($25)
BTN ($40.13)
SB ($23.76)
BB ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG K:diamond: A:diamond:
Hero raises to $0.75, UTG+1 raises to $2.60, 4 folds, Hero raises to $8.15, UTG+1 calls $5.55

Flop: 3:diamond: 3:club: 9:heart: ($16.65, 2 players)
Hero bets $8.25, UTG+1 folds

Final Pot: $24.90

Hero wins $24.07 (net +$7.67)

UTG+1 lost $8.15

In my experience with the rare 4-bet flatting range, I think I've only seen like JJ/QQ ever shown but I think that AQs+ is definitely in his range (kinda hard to know cause its such a rare occurence).

As for combos, he only has 6 AQs+ combos so the majority of his range is going to be PPs and I just don't see them ever folding in such a big pot. It's such a gross spot here but without connecting on such a dry board you're only folding out AQ+ which is a pretty small chunk of his range.

I think you ran into the unpaired portion of his range but in the long run I don't think your cbet succeeds very often. Check/calling a tiny bet would be alright but I think you're drawing to 6 outs or less a lot of the time.

polakpoker4 said:

As for combos, he only has 6 AQs+ combos so the majority of his range is going to be PPs and I just don't see them ever folding in such a big pot. It's such a gross spot here but without connecting on such a dry board you're only folding out AQ+ which is a pretty small chunk of his range.

Click to expand...

Combos when we hold AdKd:

AQs - 3 combos
AKo - 6 combos
AKs - 3 combos

If we include AQo we have another 9 combos.

i dont know much of those terms, but i think to flat call ip with ak is a bad idea based on the hand range your playing against your opponent, the only good idea from it is to setup on hand which you need a great read on your opponent, or to avoid a missed flop and save some chips.

Well for the bluff to break even he's gonna need to fold about 33% of the time you put that bet out. Now if he does call and we're assuming he has TT-QQ then we still have about 13% chance of hitting our turn or river which we can factor in as implied odds. I assume tt-qq maybe ak because i think if he has aa-kk he pushes preflop with that everytime. But actually he isn't really in a good spot to set mine here because his implied odds aren't good enough so he would have to be pushing tt-qq preflop also imo. I think he has to have ak here.