$25 NLHE 6-max: AJ IP vs good reg BvB

pocketehs

pocketehs

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Pretty sure were bluff catching based on betsizing. river is really good for my range imo so i think we can raise and get a ton of folds but is that just wasting our SDV for the hands we do beat?

villain is a good reg and plays up to 50nl.




Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $25.00 (VPIP: 19.72, PFR: 11.27, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 145)
CO: $27.99 (VPIP: 19.28, PFR: 14.46, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 85)
BTN: $34.47 (VPIP: 19.31, PFR: 9.66, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 145)
SB: $27.75 (VPIP: 34.78, PFR: 34.78, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 23)
Hero (BB): $28.60
UTG: $25.00 (VPIP: 19.67, PFR: 11.48, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 61)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has J:club: A:club:

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50, 2 players) Q:heart: A:spade: 2:spade: SB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn%s: ($4.00, 2 players) 6:heart: SB bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75

River%s: ($9.50, 2 players) 3:spade: SB bets $4.75, Hero
 
Deco

Deco

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I'd have been happier seeing a larger bet to eliminate AQ and AK given the flop bet sizing AQ seems very likely.

This is close but I'm calling. We need to be good 25% of the time. Raising has a lot of appeal here but we've very little information on villain, it feels a bit high risk to me when AQ may not fold, flushes make up a decent chunk of his range, AK seems unlikely to make such a huge bet on an AQx flop and air we can call against easy enough.
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

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I'd have been happier seeing a larger bet to eliminate AQ and AK given the flop bet sizing AQ seems very likely.

This is close but I'm calling. We need to be good 25% of the time. Raising has a lot of appeal here but we've very little information on villain, it feels a bit high risk to me when AQ may not fold, flushes make up a decent chunk of his range, AK seems unlikely to make such a huge bet on an AQx flop and air we can call against easy enough.

I would fold, don't beat anything but a bluff and when the flush gets there he could be betting a flush draw and with no information on villain I wouldn't raise.

Fold>Raise>Call imo, I don't see villain betting a bluff here either tbh or anything worse.
 
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ScottishMatt

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Much like Yoshi I don't see villain's value range extending below AJ. He can certainly value hands that would fold to a raise and that's why I think it would be a good move if not for our lack of information on villain. I probably fold, don't think he is giving us these odds if he doesn't have us beat. With a little more information a raise could be the right move.
 
Aleksei

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Vs any non-straightforward player I peel down spots like this usually because air makes up most of their range.
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

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Vs any non-straightforward player I peel down spots like this usually because air makes up most of their range.

I have yet to find a player who barrels 3 streets OOP with air on an Ace high board. Usually people c-bet flop then give up or bet turn to get HERO off of pairs below an ace but hardly ever river imo.
 
Deco

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I have yet to find a player who barrels 3 streets OOP with air on an Ace high board. Usually people c-bet flop then give up or bet turn to get HERO off of pairs below an ace but hardly ever river imo.

There's a lot of busted heart draws that just picked up the perfect barrel card. The spades are negated a fair bit by the As being dead. Also we never hold AQ, AK, AA, 22, 66 so other than our non Ax flushes our range is super capped, as a villain with busted hearts or even a gutshot id love to barrel this.

All three options are reasonable to me 25% isn't asking much but its close when AQ is likely and villain may not triple his busted draws. Other than A6 this is the top of our non-flush range villain will be folding absolutly loads of Qx and Ax, xhxh with this bet.
 
pocketehs

pocketehs

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There's a lot of busted heart draws that just picked up the perfect barrel card. The spades are negated a fair bit by the As being dead. Also we never hold AQ, AK, AA, 22, 66 so other than our non Ax flushes our range is super capped, as a villain with busted hearts or even a gutshot id love to barrel this.

All three options are reasonable to me 25% isn't asking much but its close when AQ is likely and villain may not triple his busted draws. Other than A6 this is the top of our non-flush range villain will be folding absolutly loads of Qx and Ax, xhxh with this bet.

yeah i think i like just calling the most then Deco. I actually shipped it OTR expecting him to fold a lot. I think it really is bad though because i think he can snap off with AQ quite often

ty guys
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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agree with everything deco said.
 
John A

John A

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I would fold, don't beat anything but a bluff and when the flush gets there he could be betting a flush draw and with no information on villain I wouldn't raise.

Fold>Raise>Call imo, I don't see villain betting a bluff here either tbh or anything worse.

This isn't true though, you beat some worse hands that could easily be value betting in a BvB situation. A7-AT just to name a few. Especially with that kind of sizing. Add that in with some turned draws, KT, etc.. You don't have to be good very often for this to be +EV. Now is this a high margin +EV spot? No, but a call is the correct play imho. Not to even mention that SB looks like he could be a total spaz based on the small sample stats. I guess he's supposed to be a "good reg". Not sure what that means at this site and these limits.

I'd actually rank it the complete opposite. Call > Raise > Fold.
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

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For the record I have no reason to assume he's a good reg. I just assume he's capable of bluffing, and if you have air in your range and your value range is narrow, your air range is nearly always too wide.
 
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