Originally Posted by Deco
A nine or two isn't outthe question either maybe even an ace high flush draw which would be really shite.
This is 25nl and the guy seems loose.
I don't think this is a matter of him having turned TP or a set or the NFD that as a standard don't fold. He probably doesn't fold KTs or even something like QJs if the turn is an offsuit A.
I still think the turn shove is profitable in a vacuum, but....
Originally Posted by atlantafalcons0
Why call preflop in the first place?
This is a very valid question.
Why you're calling the flop even more so.
Villain is loose, aggressive, and probably bad. Solution: flat a marginal hand and float a super-low equity draw when villain is likely to draws himself that won't fold, is likely to barrel them and we want to jam blank
OP: you're looking at the turn shove in a vacuum, which is definitely +EV, but the problem here is that that's one of very few turns that help you, and your reasoning leading up to that point suggest some gaps in logic.
Vs aggressive-bad players we allow them to valuecut themselves and bluff too much by calling more with our marginal made hands, and getting aggressive with our strong draws because they will have so many dominated draws.