$25 NLHE 6-max: after 14 hands kinda maniaceeee, 3bet of 50

$25 NL HE 6-max: after 14 hands kinda maniaceeee, 3bet of 50

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 43/29/6

so no true reads other than a high 3bet with takes forever to truly converge....he could have just been on a heater, or super aggro maniac. VPIP/pfr/af is not really out of line with only 14 hands.

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HAND #1
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Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
Hero (BB): $26.09 (104.4 bb)
UTG: $22.75 (91 bb)
MP: $26.07 (104.3 bb)
CO: $29.77 (119.1 bb)
BTN: $45.90 (183.6 bb)
SB: $44 (176 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with K♣ A♦
UTG folds, MP calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $1, MP calls $0.75, SB folds
Flop: ($2.25) 8♠ 7♥ A♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, MP calls $1.75
Turn: ($5.75) 9♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, MP raises to $23.32 and is all-in,
Hero questions what value villian could really be going for when he shoves on turn, then decides...........

We do not have enough hands/reads on him to deduce this is a bluff. The fact he limped means its very unlikely this is AQ or AJ. I fold this in a heartbeat.

I expect him to have a set a flush A7-9 or maybe 77-99, . Most likely the flush.

In general when a guy who raises alot limps his hand is a prospective hand. When they go apeshit with this prospective hand it usually means their 22 has hit a set or their A5s has made its flush. They'll next to never have a mere top pair.

Deco said:

We do not have enough hands/reads on him to deduce this is a bluff. The fact he limped means its very unlikely this is AQ or AJ. I fold this in a heartbeat.

I expect him to have a set a flush A7-9 or maybe 77-99, . Most likely the flush.

In general when a guy who raises alot limps his hand is a prospective hand. When they go apeshit with this prospective hand it usually means their 22 has hit a set or their A5s has made its flush. They'll next to never have a mere top pair.

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Ditto .

This is almost allways A7-A9,77-99,67 ect, i guess he *could* do this with AT or 9T but thats just a small part of his range.

Fold, everything got there on the turn.

Ok, here is part of my thinking here.....IF he had a decent hand, whats the point of shoving on the turn? Every fish in the world will soothe me into the hand, let me bet myself into their trap and raise me on the river.....wouldn't a modest raise on the turn do the trick as well? Why shove???...Is there enough metagame psychology in him to think, If he has High Ace, he will think I have two pair+ and fold?....I really doubt it,....Im sorry, but I think I'm almost always ahead when they just dump it in.....Keep in mind he limp called....and he has raised a lot of hands so far.... I will give him some credit for Ace and and board card sometimes 79's etc....but not a set. Maybe a flush, but fish really dont act like this with monster hands....especially when being shown aggression. Sure it is 14 hands in.....I think when they shove like this, they are bluffing.....Standard raise, I'm behind.....If this was a known tag or a nit btw, I'm folding for sure. So basically what I am saying is, being that he shoved, I call it a bluff. If he had raised me something he wants me to call, I think im dead in the water. And yes, there are probably better spots to get it in, so why not wait for it.

dcor said:

Ok, here is part of my thinking here.....IF he had a decent hand, whats the point of shoving on the turn?

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To make money.

dcor said:

Why shove???...

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Because he has the best hand

dcor said:

Is there enough metagame psychology in him to think, If he has High Ace, he will think I have two pair+ and fold?....I really doubt it

Click to expand...

I couldn't have said it better myself.

dcor said:

I think when they shove like this, they are bluffing.....Standard raise, I'm behind....

Click to expand...

Type Beluga Theorem into google

At 25NL, I think a massive overshove is the nuts almost always. He has a flush here most of the time and the overshove is going to be for value. If you had more hands on him and have a solid read on his bluffing tendencies, you could make a marginal case for calling here. Villain's reasoning for the shove is that he expects you to put him on a bluff.

In the end, I always fold here. You're only ahead of pair+straightdraw and weak aces (if he spazzes with weak aces, he'll probably do it on the flop because its so draw heavy)