$25 NLHE 6-max: AA facing turn check-minraise, paired double flushdraw board

mrmonkey

mrmonkey

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Afq 71% over 41 hands

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL RUSH (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $58.24
BB: $27.34
UTG: $94.30
MP: $25.00
Hero (CO): $25.50
BTN: $46.40

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has A:spade: A:diamond:

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60, 2 players) 3:club: 3:spade: 4:club:
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB raises to $3.00, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($7.60, 2 players) T:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets $5.00, BB raises to $10.00, Hero ???
 
KardKlub

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2 raises? pretty easy fold. I dont mind the turn bet to get his draws to pay to see the river but its a fold.
 
jbbb

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2 raises? pretty easy fold. I dont mind the turn bet to get his draws to pay to see the river but its a fold.
really? c/ring a dry flop like this is pretty standard (probably especially in rush) and he could even have an overpair to the board. So why not re-raise on flop because 3x isn't a lot of his range?
 
ben_rhyno

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I hardly see any 3-x's in opponents pre-flop calling range. Could easily be AXs in spades or 56s or a middle pair 55-99. That said the double c/r puts you in awkward spot and I might fold the turn with just top pair.
 
acky100

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Definitely Re-raising the flop looks the best to me, charging him for his draws plus he seems aggressive enough to be doing this with bluffs and obviously pocket pairs that make overpairs.

What were his Vpip and PFR btw? Not sure what i would do on the turn though, just cant see a lot of 3's in his range. maybe he has something like 88-QQ a lot here all depends on the player i suppose though

am i right in saying there's only 4 combinations of A3 he could have? if he's even calling with that in the blinds?
 
KardKlub

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There are 4 suited a3 and 12 offsuit a3 in total.
 
mrmonkey

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I think the villain stats form on these hand analysis threads is broken -- the stats don't show up anywhere when you put them in.

Villain is 32/22 over 41 hands, raise flop at the time 0/4. The raise flop stat made me pretty suspicious, but I still though he might have had a solid cointoss draw or small over 55-TT.

Since this is BvB and I have a somewhat high steal attempt percentage, I'd say that A3s,32s,34s are likely in his range, as are 33,44 and overs from 55-TT. Draws like A2s, 56s, A5s are also probably there, but imo the turn raise makes these combos much less likely. JJ+ I'm sure 3bets me pre.

So let's say we 3bet the flop to what... $9 and fold to shove? If we get called, we are committed on the turn though if blank falls?
 
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acky100

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There are 4 suited a3 and 12 offsuit a3 in total.

How do you get to this, ive only started learning combinations but i thought all we did was times the 2 remaining aces by the 2 remaining 3's to get 4 combinations?

edit: ahh think you meant preflop, okay... get ya. So arent we meant to count combinations after the flop as there surely is only 4 different A3's he could have? and compare that to other shoving combos?
 
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acky100

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raise flop to 9 looks good but why are we folding to a shove? I mean folding to the shove is fine if you dont think villain could be shoving with draws or overpairs, but if he can shove his draws and overpairs then i think a call would be the right move, especially with the odds the pot will be giving if you've already put like 10 dollars or so in
 
mrmonkey

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in my experience at 25nl @ FTP (which I admit is limited to only about 15,000 hands or so), low overpairs 55-TT from a villain like this aren't 4-bet shoving in this spot. That narrows the 4-bet shoving range to something like A3,23,33,34,35,44, or some sort of straight+flushdraw (56c, 67c, A2c, A5c). Agaisnt this range we are way behind.

If we include overpairs like 88-TT into the mix, then the equity gap evens up and it's probably worth calling a shove. I think at 10nl I call it all day, but 25nl not so much because there seem to be fewer spewtards at 25nl.

I don't know though, I had such a horrible downswing at this time. I kept getting dealt huge suckouts and coolers, losing every coin toss, and my made monsters were never getting action. It's possible that I just ran into extremely bad luck at 25nl, and that the level of play is not as good as I think... and that it isn't so different from 10nl?

Anyone else with 25nl experience at FT that has seen what seem like reasonably competent stats shove in this spot with low overpairs?
 
mrmonkey

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Oh yes, what do we think about checking back the turn? I know it gives villain a free draw, but is it reasonable to play a smaller pot and just call off any type of below-pot-size river bet since we have decent showdown value basically with any river that comes?

While typing this it sounds incredibly weak-passive, but with a villain with plenty of 3's in his range and not showing all that much postflop aggression beyond cbets, is it not a sound move to go this route?
 
cardriverx

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I'm not folding turn. Re-raising flop and then prob jamming turn
 
B

BigThingWithHolesInIt

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I can't not like my rockets here...get it in, imo.

First off, 33/44/43 don't raise otf surely? It would be idiotic to deny you the chance to catch up or barrel again on the turn. I would deem these hands extremely unlikely, which reduces the amount of 3s in his range significantly.

The double c/r is puzzling, especially since the one on the turn is actually weaker. Could be TT building a pot, 6s5s having just received new outs or 3x or JJ-AA taking a clumsy line... could also be actual weakness, not knowing what to do with 22, 55-99, club FD... anything that looked prettier otf.

On this flop I'd happily get it in so I would definitely re-raise there and call
a shove.
 
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