$25 NLHE 6-max: 5-bet shove range

loopmeister

loopmeister

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BTN and SB have full effective $25 stacks.

Folds to BTN, who raises to 0.75. BTN has been stealing from BTN often - 67% or so and has 99.

SB raises to $2.50. BB folds. SB has defended his blind about 1/3 time BTN tries to steal.

BTN reraises to $7.

SB shoves for $25.

What is SB's range here?

BTN folds, right?
 
bgomez89

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yes easy lay down. Most peoples 5bet shoving ranges arent FOS
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Easy lay down? Not really...

BTN has to call $18 to win $32.25, so we're getting pot odds of 1.79:1, which corresponds to ~36% equity required.

35.8% { 99 }
64.2% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

33.2% { 99 }
66.8% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

31.2% { 99 }
68.8% { TT+, AKs, AKo }

So yeah, its pretty close to a call, depending on how many pairs bigger than yours they stack.

However, if you're 4-betting 99, its because villain 3-bets a ton. And if they're 3-betting a ton of hands, you should probably be calling off the 5-bet. This is a solved spot preflop, so I'll refer you to this handy chart, which is available in the Hold'em Manager article "Facing a preflop 3-bet". If you haven't downloaded the trial of Hold'em Manager and read that article, you're seriously missing out.

Opponent's 3-bet Percentage Required to 4-bet/call off preflop for 100bb's.
* KK+: Good against any range
* QQ: vs 3% or higher
* JJ: vs 6.5% or higher
* TT: vs 8.5% or higher
* 99: vs 10.5% or higher
* 88: vs 12.5% or higher
* 77: vs 14% or higher
* AKs: vs 3% or higher
* AQs: vs 8% or higher
* AJs: vs 13% or higher
* AKo: vs 5% or higher
* AQo: vs 9% or higher

This chart makes it so you never even have to know what your opponent's 5-bet range is (because its really hard to figure that out). And you'll never make a super exploitable mistake by folding to a 5-bet with a hand that has decent equity.

Also this is why most people 4-bet smaller (2.5x). Because once you 4-bet to a pot sized amount, you're usually getting close pot odds to call it off with whatever hand you have, and 4-bet/folding becomes a mistake.
 
bgomez89

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i hate you c9 with your fancy numbers and doohickies
 
loopmeister

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Thanks C9, that's some useful stuff. It still looks like a fold at 25NL to me though.

I was actually SB in that hand and was pretty surprised when BTN called my shove w 99.

He had been stealing a ton and I'd been 3-betting his btn raises about 1/3 times. However, I had never called/raised a 4-bet.

Also, although i've only played a few thousand hands at 25NL, I've never seen worse than AKo being 5-bet shoved.

So although villain 4-bet me, I still put him on a fairly wide range (top 10%) or so and was close to certain I'd fold out everything but QQ+,AK with my shove, making it a profitable move with basically whatever I had.

As you say though, I might not have had quite as much fold equity as I'd thought, villain had the right read on me, or he was just ready to gamble.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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He had been stealing a ton and I'd been 3-betting his btn raises about 1/3 times.
* 77: vs 14% or higher

Notice, 77 is 14% or higher. If you were 3-betting truly 33% of the time, he could probably 4-bet/call off just about any hand profitably. You're defending your blind WAY WAY WAY too much if you're 3-betting that often.
 
loopmeister

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Of course, it was 33% of the times he raised from the btn when his range was very, very wide -- my 3-bet % was a bit higher than normal because of this, so around 6% overall maybe.
 
Stu_Ungar

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Of course, it was 33% of the times he raised from the btn when his range was very, very wide

Over what sample size?

How many times did he actually raise.

Over 200 hands he could easily have a 33% 3bet from the SB, but that dosent mean he has raised 66 times. Typically over 200 hands you will have been folded to 10 times on the BTN and that means that he has 3-bet about 3 times.

This really tells you nothing. He could have 3bet bluffed once and 3bet value betted twice.
 
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badaboombaa

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Why not just call the 3b? Not sure what the 4b accomplishes.
 
bgomez89

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setmining in 3bet pots is lolbad(when 100bb deep)
 
M

moneybagz718

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I WOULD LOVE TO UNDERSTAND WHAT YOUR TALKING ABOUT C9 BUT MY POKER SKILLS AINT THAT GREAT YET.....WILL STUDY MORE
 
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