$25 NLHE 6-max: 3handed 300bb effective vs nit on river, whats our action?

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RamdeeBen

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In a 100bb game this seems like a standard shove on the river and in general a standard VB on the river I think but because we're deep and villain is really tight when he flats hands pre and x/c 2 streets I'm really not entirely sure if we're betting for value incorrectly on the river here? Like I feel he has like AK minimum when he x/c the flop and turn or could I be mistaken?

Also don't like my turn sizing, should of made it bigger.

Villian is 15/12 - fold to 3B 90%. Folds to CB 100%.

I've been running 27/20.

I really not sure if we should bet fold river, check call river or just check and hope he checks back or does this seem like an easy bet/fold spot? Obviously Bet/call is out of the question I'd imagine but I'd be interested in your thoughts on this.
PokerStars - $0.25 Ante $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $155.73
BTN: $83.12 (VPIP: 15.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 42)
SB: $62.65 (VPIP: 36.93, PFR: 30.66, 3Bet Preflop: 16.42, Hands: 296)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25, 3 players post ante of $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.50) Hero has K:heart: A:heart:

BTN raises to $0.75, fold, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25, 2 players) 9:spade: 5:diamond: A:diamond:
Hero bets $3.75, BTN calls $3.75

Turn: ($12.75, 2 players) 5:spade:
Hero bets $6.75, BTN calls $6.75

River: ($26.25, 2 players) 4:heart:
Hero ??
 
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swingro

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So he is folding to 3 bet a lot of times and a lot of times to cbet. None of these happened this hand. But if you had a large sample of hands on him like 500+ i think on the turn you should had stoped already. As you only have 42 hnds you can bet/fold the river like 1/2 of the pot.Actually you can bet a lilttle higher. A lot of AQ could be in his range You have only a general guidline about his postflop play .
 
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RamdeeBen

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Yeah, well - I just feel there might be times he's calling worse Ax hands like AJ/AQ and we're just 3 handed and I've been running quite aggressive and we're really deep.. Not sure if giving up on the turn though I should be stopping given there are still some hands we beat and that just seems way to passive. You might well be right though..
 
duggs

duggs

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I mean nothing wrong with b/f. Often id be c/c turn but not here
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I mean nothing wrong with b/f
Nope. If he's folding a lot to 3-bets, he won't have many draws we can extract a bluff from.

This is probably a chop with AK, but certainly worth a bet. I might consider shoving if the history between us was right.
 
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tomnovember

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Just bet the river. There are no draws on the flop and the villain obviously do not have an A. So bet - fold is just a good option.
 
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swingro

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Just bet the river. There are no draws on the flop and the villain obviously do not have an A. So bet - fold is just a good option.
I think you assumed wrong. Why bet if does not have an A? If he has something else we are crushed. We bet to get value from an worse A and if he reraises we know that we are behind most likely.
 
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tomnovember

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I think you assumed wrong. Why bet if does not have an A? If he has something else we are crushed. We bet to get value from an worse A and if he reraises we know that we are behind most likely.

Sry for my typo. Actually I mean the villain may have an A, but KK-JJ are also in his range. So bet here may just be a good option.
 
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