$25 NLHE 6-max: 3handed 300bb effective vs nit on river, whats our action?
In a 100bb game this seems like a standard shove on the river and in general a standard VB on the river I think but because we're deep and villain is really tight when he flats hands pre and x/c 2 streets I'm really not entirely sure if we're betting for value incorrectly on the river here? Like I feel he has like AK minimum when he x/c the flop and turn or could I be mistaken?
Also don't like my turn sizing, should of made it bigger.
Villian is 15/12 - fold to 3B 90%. Folds to CB 100%.
I've been running 27/20.
I really not sure if we should bet fold river, check call river or just check and hope he checks back or does this seem like an easy bet/fold spot? Obviously Bet/call is out of the question I'd imagine but I'd be interested in your thoughts on this.
PokerStars - $0.25 Ante $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BB): $155.73
BTN: $83.12 (VPIP: 15.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 42)
SB: $62.65 (VPIP: 36.93, PFR: 30.66, 3Bet Preflop: 16.42, Hands: 296)
SB posts SB $0.10, Hero
posts BB $0.25, 3 players post ante of $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.50) Hero
BTN raises to $0.75
, Hero raises to $2.50
, BTN calls $1.75
Flop: ($5.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $3.75
, BTN calls $3.75
Turn: ($12.75, 2 players)
Hero bets $6.75
, BTN calls $6.75
River: ($26.25, 2 players)