$25 NLHE 6-max: 3bet bluff vs steal flops middle pair

IPlay

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Villains steal was 4/7(57%) AF1.5 AFq ~50%

iPoker - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $24.95 (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 9)
BTN: $25.93 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
SB: $25.00 (VPIP: 29.49, PFR: 21.79, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 78)
Hero (BB): $48.21
UTG: $24.79 (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: $19.84 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 22)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 7:heart: 9:heart:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.75, fold, Hero raises to $2.60, BTN calls $1.85

Flop: ($5.30, 2 players) 9:club: K:diamond: 3:club:
Hero bets $2.90, BTN calls $2.90

Turn: ($11.10, 2 players) 2:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.05, Hero calls $5.05

River: ($21.20, 2 players) J:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets $15.38, fold,

I like the 3 bet pre and prefer just calling with more premium connectors like J10s, 98s etc...

Flop is interesting and it is a flop that is going to give villain a lot of potential float hands. With that said what is better here? x/call or bet?

Turn I think I played the worst. I think my hand should be betting again to fold out potential 1010-QQ and charge draws. I also think if I bet turn he isn't bluffing many blank rivers if checked too while when I check/call turn he is going to bet his entire range on river except hands that beat me like KQ random suited Jx etc. My turn play set me up in a pretty bad spot here.

River looks pretty bluffy from villain even though I folded and I think it is always a fold. Turn sizing indicates he is probably betting for value. He does seem to be repping pretty thin but even a lot of his floats got there with back door diamonds and the J. He could also have KJs, Slow played AK, Qd10d Qc10c, JJ. I really don't think KQs is jamming river but maybe. If he has Axcc that decided to bet 45% pot on turn and jam river then hats off to him.

Can anyone make a case for a hero call on the river? What if the river was a total blank like 2c. Probably a call then IMO. Thought this hand was pretty interesting all the way through and there is many options on each and every street and would love to hear some thoughts on it.
 
IPlay

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Thinking about pre and maybe we shouldn't 3bet? When someone is stealing this often they are probably defending wider against resteals and that is going to make postflop harder. Flatting just seems so meh though.
 
Aces2w1n

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fold pre... unless he folds to 3bet a lot.

i think after the call our play is finished and we giveup... we make the money from preflop folds not post play
 
IPlay

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fold pre... unless he folds to 3bet a lot.

i think after the call our play is finished and we giveup... we make the money from preflop folds not post play

He had not been 3bet yet up to this point so no reads on that.

I think folding pre has it's merit but he is approaching 60% steal and I have folded every time so I think just continuing to fold is too weak and I need to start defending sometime, right? I'm not 100% sure though and could be wrong and could have made the wrong adjustment.

I agree once we are called on flop we should give up OR semibluff turn and I for sure made a mistake check/calling on turn. The price he laid out helped me make that decision in real time but I think even with that price check/calling is wrong.
 
c9h13no3

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Thinking about pre and maybe we shouldn't 3bet? When someone is stealing this often they are probably defending wider against resteals and that is going to make postflop harder. Flatting just seems so meh though.
Did your own analysis for folding pre.

In limit hold'em, the BB & SB need to defend a combined 43% (21.5% each) to prevent the button from having a profitable steal. The number is hard to calculate, but would certainly be smaller for NLHE. So you can still avoid being exploitable without getting nutty with 97s.
 
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John A

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The standard thing I teach students of mine is, and I've said this for a lot of years, don't 3-bet re-steal with this or even SC's OOP. There's just no real reason to do it at these stakes. For balancing purposes at higher stakes, doing it sometimes is fine.

It's one of my top 10 don't do's. And I'm not saying never do it, but don't make it a default play like I see a lot of people do.
 
c9h13no3

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The standard thing I teach students of mine is, and I've said this for a lot of years, don't 3-bet re-steal with this or even SC's OOP. There's just no real reason to do it at these stakes. For balancing purposes at higher stakes, doing it sometimes is fine.

It's one of my top 10 don't do's. And I'm not saying never do it, but don't make it a default play like I see a lot of people do.
As a "poker coach" you think your reputation carries a lot of weight. But here, we'd prefer you explain your advice, rather than just dispensing platitudes.
 
IPlay

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As a "poker coach" you think your reputation carries a lot of weight. But here, we'd prefer you explain your advice, rather than just dispensing platitudes.

Why be a jerk? John gives great advice and of course he is going to sprinkle in a little plug every now and then. Its well earned and smart business

/derail

I'll have an actual response later, thanks for the replies guys.
 
Aces2w1n

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i do find it entertaining when things get heated up betweeb c9 and iplay ;) breaks things up hah
 
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As a "poker coach" you think your reputation carries a lot of weight. But here, we'd prefer you explain your advice, rather than just dispensing platitudes.

Tbf, this is one of the few times that John hasn't explained the justification for an action.
 
Sil3ntness

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I agree with the others; it strongly depends on how often button is folding to 3 bets. If the button is a solid player you'll be playing a bloated pot out of position. As played I'd say definitely fold the river.

However you put yourself in a tough spot when you do the "one and done" betting line.
 
C

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Bit of controversy you've caused here! My thoughts:

Pre-flop: I actually agree with 'John A' here. I'm not getting involved in the dispute, but in poker terms, I agree. I very rarely 3-bet bluff with SCs or 1-gappers simply because there are better hands to 3-bet bluff, and although it does start to become useful at 25NL, it's not something we need to be doing a lot. I'd much rather use hands like small Axs, because then we also have a blocker to Ax, which means we're less likely to get called when we attempt this re-steal. I don't think what you've done here is the a bad play necessarily, but personally I'd wait for a better spot. I'd also feel better about it if we had more precise reads on BTN. At 25NL, I would 3-bet very wide in this spot but mostly for value.
Sizing is fine, but villain can still call you with a wide range here I'd imagine. At its widest, his range can be 22-QQ, ATo-AQo, A2s-AQs, KJo+, K6s+, QJo, Q9s+, J8s+, 54s+ and 64s+. It's probably going to be tighter, but we'll play it safe.

Flop: Neither option, betting small, or X/C are bad really. I personally like to X/C here, to keep his range wider. He can bet with a wider range than he can call with and we may be able to pick up some information based on his sizing.
As played, he can call with Kx, 9x and flush draws. I think he raises two pair+ and NFDs on this board seeing as it's wet-ish (but not paired). I think his range (after doing some analysis) is heavily weighted towards Kx here though.


Turn: Brick on the turn. I think now he's called, our plan should be to X/F. No good getting attached to second pair when chances are it's no good. I think about 80% of the time this is Kx and 20% it's a flush draw semi-bluffing. That sort of range makes this a fold.


River: Now this is actually kind of interesting because I'm not sure he would shove the river with a Kx. Now he's made this huge bet, I'm actually leaning more towards a missed club draw here. I would have folded turn, but now we're here, I'm probably calling this. This bet just doesn't make sense, and I think we're going to see a missed draw enough to make this a narrow, but good call.

Putting him on like T8 of clubs, he knows he has no SDV so he has to get you to fold, and it looks like this big bet (he would have checked or made a small bet with Kx I think) is designed to actually get you off Kx.

EDIT: I know that not many people are going to agree with calling the river here, so if you want to have a discussion about it, I'm always game.
 
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vinylspiros

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Villains steal was 4/7(57%) AF1.5 AFq ~50%

iPoker - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $24.95 (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BTN: $25.93 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
SB: $25.00 (VPIP: 29.49, PFR: 21.79, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 78)
Hero (BB): $48.21
UTG: $24.79 (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: $19.84 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 22)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 7 9

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.75, fold, Hero raises to $2.60, BTN calls $1.85

Flop: ($5.30, 2 players) 9 K 3
Hero bets $2.90, BTN calls $2.90

Turn: ($11.10, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.05, Hero calls $5.05

River: ($21.20, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets $15.38, fold,

I like the 3 bet pre and prefer just calling with more premium connectors like J10s, 98s etc...

Flop is interesting and it is a flop that is going to give villain a lot of potential float hands. With that said what is better here? x/call or bet?

Turn I think I played the worst. I think my hand should be betting again to fold out potential 1010-QQ and charge draws. I also think if I bet turn he isn't bluffing many blank rivers if checked too while when I check/call turn he is going to bet his entire range on river except hands that beat me like KQ random suited Jx etc. My turn play set me up in a pretty bad spot here.

River looks pretty bluffy from villain even though I folded and I think it is always a fold. Turn sizing indicates he is probably betting for value. He does seem to be repping pretty thin but even a lot of his floats got there with back door diamonds and the J. He could also have KJs, Slow played AK, Qd10d Qc10c, JJ. I really don't think KQs is jamming river but maybe. If he has Axcc that decided to bet 45% pot on turn and jam river then hats off to him.

Can anyone make a case for a hero call on the river? What if the river was a total blank like 2c. Probably a call then IMO. Thought this hand was pretty interesting all the way through and there is many options on each and every street and would love to hear some thoughts on it.


^^^^pretty much this. If your willing to call a turn bet, you would be better off making the bet yourself for the reasons you mention above, to keep initiative in the hand, hence put him in a tough spot. If he calls turn bet you can always spike 2pair, trips on the river.

As played, i like your line though. check calling turn once to keep him honest is fine but when he bets river your usually beat. good fold imho.
 
John A

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As a "poker coach" you think your reputation carries a lot of weight. But here, we'd prefer you explain your advice, rather than just dispensing platitudes.

If you needed a hug C9, you just had to ask man. Seriously... I give free hugs.
 
Figaroo2

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Lol
What is going on around here, just comment on the hand and let the OP decide which advice.
97s three bet from the blinds is a no no for me, as has been said there are better hands to do it with.
If you play these hands you are going to have to bluff a ton.
 
6

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I'd prefer you bet turn for like 80% pot, since it's such a wet board and also since you don't turn your hand so face up like you do when you check-call the turn. Also I don't see villain's turn bet as a real value bet; I see it as weak and drawy. There are so many draws out there and he's betting 40% pot? That doesn't look like a Kx hand that needs protection, but instead, it looks like he's on a draw or a complete float.

On the river, it's unlikely that the villain has a flush, he's probably checking Jx because he seems too fishy to thin value bet that here and he probably would've raised Kxcc on the flop, so I actually think that he's bluffing a large portion of the time here. It's possible he has QT (which would be a bit unlucky), but I think that there are plenty of A4s, A5s and busted club draw combos to justify hero calling this.
 
K

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You'd better fold in my opinion .
 
Aces2w1n

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He had not been 3bet yet up to this point so no reads on that.

I think folding pre has it's merit but he is approaching 60% steal and I have folded every time so I think just continuing to fold is too weak and I need to start defending sometime, right? I'm not 100% sure though and could be wrong and could have made the wrong adjustment.

I agree once we are called on flop we should give up OR semibluff turn and I for sure made a mistake check/calling on turn. The price he laid out helped me make that decision in real time but I think even with that price check/calling is wrong.


How about a plan like check raise 2nd pair as a bluff.

and just bet out when we flop a lot of equity and hope they either fold on later streets or we hit and stack!

Other times we giveup... I'm assuming we 3bet to get the folds hopefully.


.....

the turn card is great for us and yeah your right iplay you should've barrelled.
 
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