$25 NLHE 6-max: 3bet bluff vs steal flops middle pair
Villains steal was 4/7(57%) AF1.5 AFq ~50%
iPoker - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: $24.95 (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BTN: $25.93 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
SB: $25.00 (VPIP: 29.49, PFR: 21.79, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 78)
Hero (BB): $48.21
UTG: $24.79 (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: $19.84 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 22)
SB posts SB $0.10, Hero
posts BB $0.25
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero
, BTN raises to $0.75
, Hero raises to $2.60
, BTN calls $1.85
Flop: ($5.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.90
, BTN calls $2.90
Turn: ($11.10, 2 players)
checks, BTN bets $5.05
River: ($21.20, 2 players)
checks, BTN bets $15.38
I like the 3 bet pre and prefer just calling with more premium connectors like J10s, 98s etc...
Flop is interesting and it is a flop that is going to give villain a lot of potential float hands. With that said what is better here? x/call or bet?
Turn I think I played the worst. I think my hand should be betting again to fold out potential 1010-QQ and charge draws. I also think if I bet turn he isn't bluffing many blank rivers if checked too while when I check/call turn he is going to bet his entire range on river except hands that beat me like KQ random suited Jx etc. My turn play set me up in a pretty bad spot here.
River looks pretty bluffy from villain even though I folded and I think it is always a fold. Turn sizing indicates he is probably betting for value. He does seem to be repping pretty thin but even a lot of his floats got there with back door diamonds and the J. He could also have KJs, Slow played AK, Qd10d Qc10c, JJ. I really don't think KQs is jamming river but maybe. If he has Axcc that decided to bet 45% pot on turn and jam river then hats off to him.
Can anyone make a case for a hero call on the river? What if the river was a total blank like 2c. Probably a call then IMO. Thought this hand was pretty interesting all the way through and there is many options on each and every street and would love to hear some thoughts on it.