wanted a smoke anyway and found this rather interesting so i jumped back on my comp to examine a bit more...
Originally Posted by Deco
I don't think you have sufficent evidence to make a claim as big as villain will double float after a mere 200 hands, I've never actually caught a reg doing this, ever. You don't even have sufficent evidence villain will 3bet JJ here as that BB 3bet% will likely be 1/7 or 2/14.
fold to cbet; flop 0/11, turn 2/7, river 0/1
raise cbet; flop 0/11, turn 2/7
you make a really good point here about double floating. strangely enough hes not raising flops, but is raising just as often as hes folding on the turn :s tbh im not really sure what to conclude from this.
overall BB 3b 11% of 28 samples
BB 3b vs steal 16% of 19 samples
excuse me for not working out how many times each of those percentages are, its 3.30am and im tired lol. i do however think this is sufficient to suggest that he will raise JJ BvB always.
Originally Posted by Deco
This is a very common line to take with sets and 7x. You will see far more (like 100x more) villains slowplaying a co-ordinated flop than you will villains double floating ace high then bluff raising the river.
i dont think he raises A high on the river, i think he calls it like id expect from 88-TT but he could fold it too. i think something like 89s is a much more likely hand for him to have considering his stats and the action on all streets.
having said that, this is a pretty decent board for just flatting a set IP OTF and OTT.
but all this still doesnt make sense to me on the river. ive shown nothing but strength the entire hand, pot is 7.80 OTR and i bet $4, making it $11.80 total, and he basically minraises only $4.50 more? why would he do this with trips or a boat? why wouldnt he bet more? after all, surely he has to think i have a hand and will pay off a decent bit more. The only legit hand i get see him making a bet like this for value with would be AJ, cos ill make the call with 88-TT myself there, but AJ cant stand up to a 3b shove obv which puts me back to thinking hes repping no value hands (at least none that i cant get to fold) and so it has to be total air with no showdown value an astronomically high percentage of the time.
i dunno, do you agree at all? am i being logical here or totally missing something. i dont even know anymore... weird hand. im 99% sure this is the first time ive 3b bluff shoved the river... it just seems to be a spot where villain would have nothing sosososo much of the time to me..