$25 NLHE 6-max: 3b bluff shoving the river okay here?

224 hands on villain. hes a decent player and tbh a pain in the ass to have on my left. this is a BvB hand and im OOP.

hes a 21/18, with a 67% fold to steals. vs steals, hes calling 11% in BB and 3bing 16%, so i can pretty much rule out all overpairs.
his fold to Cbet is ZERO on the flop, 30% OTT and 0% OTR (although only 1 sample for river)

is my line okay here? i cant really see him having a legit hand unless he binked his jack with AJ or something

fwiw, villain would obv view me as competent, im playing pretty tight pre here, and barreling most flop and turns. my aggF is 4.5 and infinite on the river on this table (been here for 164 hands)

View hand 1892872
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UTG: $14.49
MP: $24.97
CO: $39.34
BTN: $10.00
Hero (SB): $28.27
BB: $27.97

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with A 8
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 4 7 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.30) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, BB calls $2.25

River: ($7.80) J (2 players)
Hero bets $4, BB raises to $9.50, Hero raises to $24.37 all in.......

Fold pre, check fold flop.

We're trying to bluff a guy who doesn't fold. Am I missing anything here? Sure, his range is very wide on the river, but do you trust him to fold any of it?

Really?

Anyway, I probably fold to the river raise. I dont mind the triple barrel though.

I have to say your line makes your hand look like a monster.

With villian stats you definitely should continue barrelling, even after the turn. I think how you played the river couldn't have been wrong/right.

not to derail but I had a similar hand yesterday in a stt.http://www.cardschat.com/f51/10-75-nlhe-stt-3b-bluff-213997/#post1955089

Why do you think he can't have taken the line he did with a set or possibly A7?

Also, while it's likely he'd have 3bet pre- with a premium pair, can you completely rule out the possibility he called with holdings like 88 or 99? Related to this, what image if any is he likely to have of you? If he thinks you're the type to bet into him on all three streets, calling pre- with a big hand doesn't seem out of the question either.

it might seem strange, but hes a pretty legit player and up a fair amount from the sample i have on him. i dont see how i can fold this pre and not barrel 2overs + gutshot OTF though? why woudl you recommend this. yes my line, leaves me in this awkward spot on the river and i think check folding the river could be better, but im unsure?

i dont think A7 is a very likely calling hand pre. if he has a set im obv screwed but i guess i couldnt see him slowplaying one on me like this.

88/99 are definitely hands he could have imo until he raises the river. the way i see it, any kind of value hand he has is calling the river, unless its nuts. his raise size suggests it could be nuts, but nuts are hard to make and even harder to make on this baord. so only his hands with non showdown value will raise the river? am i outlevelling myself here?

i think hes likely to not be thinking about my image because hes a 25NL player, and if he is thinking about my image, i think hed be thinking that im not the kind of player to spaz out and 3b bluff shove rivers with air, esp when im playign so tight pre already and my line is super strong.

I fold pre, we've got to tighten our range vs heavy 3betters. Even more so when we can't effectivly c-bet this guy (low FCB).

Size of your FCB sample would be handy but assuming it's converged I'm alright with double barreling a gutshot, I'm not barreling the river though, although this generally is a good scare card villain doesn;t seem the type to fold 88-TT here whilst 7x is obviously staying with us. If I was to barrel I'd make it bigger.

Fold to the river raise pretty fast, I see no reason to believe this is anything but 7x, JJ or perhaps 44/67/66/77 if villains the type who can;t help but slowplay.

I didn't peg villain for slow playing. If this isn't the perfect guy for bluff raising OTR what is? Boards great for it too I think since I'm much more likely to have a 7 in my range than villain is (my open first from SB is like just under 40%), and all the set/overpair combos make sense for my line too don't they?

I dunno, I just don't see how you can give a guy so much credit for a hand when he virtually never folds to Cbets OTF and OTT but didn't raise me until the river at which point like I said is trips/boat or complete air?

Someone who reps nothing.
or
Someone we've seen checkraise the river as a bluff and reps very little.

This guy is neither.

They do but I think your giving villain too much credit for hand reading, his value range is going to be very strong so I doubt he can hero fold trips or a weak fullhouse.

Because he check raised the river after calling two streets. It's very unlikely he still has air and if you really think he's capable of calling down two streets with ace high why are you bluffing him? If he was bluffing this river it would be with 5x or 6x and I see no evidence to deem him capable of this.

River raises demand a lot of respect, people hardly ever bluff with them so you need really strong evidence before calling down light nevermind 3bet bluffing.

Villain is IP, I'm the one who is OOP. This is a world of difference to a check/raise OTR imo.

How is villain repping anything here? He's guaranteed to 3b JJ+ pre (my fold 3b is low and his 3b is high) and hasnt raised the flop or the turn, negating many set and trips combos. He cant raise a jack or mid pairs like 88-TT OTR either. I don't have villains raise post stats on hand cos I'm on my phone.... But surely if he's never folding flops and turns he's raising a large chunk of them.

I do think he's capable of calling 2 streets w A high. I'm bluffing him because I feel I need to lead the flop and turn with overs + gutter, and am not willing to give up on a river just cos i got calls on two streets when im vs an opponent who doesn't fold flops and turns and is therefore that much more likely to float weak/with air IP in a BvB scenario

I don't think you have sufficent evidence to make a claim as big as villain will double float after a mere 200 hands, I've never actually caught a reg doing this, ever. You don't even have sufficent evidence villain will 3bet JJ here as that BB 3bet% will likely be 1/7 or 2/14.

This is a very common line to take with sets and 7x. You will see far more (like 100x more) villains slowplaying a co-ordinated flop than you will villains double floating ace high then bluff raising the river.

wanted a smoke anyway and found this rather interesting so i jumped back on my comp to examine a bit more...

fold to cbet; flop 0/11, turn 2/7, river 0/1
raise cbet; flop 0/11, turn 2/7
you make a really good point here about double floating. strangely enough hes not raising flops, but is raising just as often as hes folding on the turn :s tbh im not really sure what to conclude from this.


overall BB 3b 11% of 28 samples
BB 3b vs steal 16% of 19 samples

excuse me for not working out how many times each of those percentages are, its 3.30am and im tired lol. i do however think this is sufficient to suggest that he will raise JJ BvB always.

i dont think he raises A high on the river, i think he calls it like id expect from 88-TT but he could fold it too. i think something like 89s is a much more likely hand for him to have considering his stats and the action on all streets.
having said that, this is a pretty decent board for just flatting a set IP OTF and OTT.

but all this still doesnt make sense to me on the river. ive shown nothing but strength the entire hand, pot is 7.80 OTR and i bet $4, making it $11.80 total, and he basically minraises only $4.50 more? why would he do this with trips or a boat? why wouldnt he bet more? after all, surely he has to think i have a hand and will pay off a decent bit more. The only legit hand i get see him making a bet like this for value with would be AJ, cos ill make the call with 88-TT myself there, but AJ cant stand up to a 3b shove obv which puts me back to thinking hes repping no value hands (at least none that i cant get to fold) and so it has to be total air with no showdown value an astronomically high percentage of the time.

i dunno, do you agree at all? am i being logical here or totally missing something. i dont even know anymore... weird hand. im 99% sure this is the first time ive 3b bluff shoved the river... it just seems to be a spot where villain would have nothing sosososo much of the time to me..

The flop FCB is good enough to assume he floats simply because it's so extreme. The turn c-bet is certainly not sufficent evidence for a double float. Folding just three more hands would take him to ~55%. It indicated he's likely a hero caller but this is very different to call down Ace high on a co-ordinated flop.

Where uze playing HU for a while, seems strange that over two thirds of his oppurtunities to 3bet have been from the BB vs steals.

But ye 3/19 is still not conclusive evidence and lose or add a 3bet and we're altering this stats by more than 5%. 3bets stats take so long to converge because ;arge and small figures cover such a small range (0-25%) compared to say a c-bet%s (20-75%). JJ is just one of many big hands on this flop so it isn;t even of great relevance.


He hasn't even raised a flop c-bet yet. Sure its within the realms of possibility but we need very strong evidence, making moves like this just based on a him having a wider range than most players at this point and a 2/7 turn stat will lead us to 3betting or calling off almost every river raise a loose player makes even though most of them will only be raising monsters.



I think its very unlikely AJ raises here. It would be a gross overvalueing of his hand. Your saying your line is very strong so why would villain raise for value so small, surely bluffing would be even crazier given the strength of your line or trying to value bet AJ (which is honestly beyond belief it would be so bad).


I personally would put his range at:

{44,66,77,JJ,67,78, A7s} for 24 combos which really isn't that thin of a range. Sure some of these like JJ can face negations but it's still alot of combos.
To highlight how crazy the AJ thing is I'd actually negate 78 somewhat as it seems too weak to raise.

I agree that raising AJ there would be mega stupid.
Also, I don't think I'm necessarily repping anything at all when I bet flop and turn, and tbh my half pot river bet does look very stealy. So I don't think it would be too out of the question for villain to raise a busted draw on the river.

Cheers for all the responses though too deco, appreciate it

Havent read any other comments, but we should not ever be folding A8 pre here thats just silly. If you think he is capable of taking this line as a bluff (double floating and raising the river) then you have owned him. The line we took is good because it just looks so strong and imo he should be folding nearly all his range here. However you have to be sure he can fold decent holdings and not feel he's pot commited.

So is he capable of folding hands?
And will he feel pot commited with TP (that he somehow has ha)

woahh surprise surprise, captain spew himself condones this

Also if he's doing this as a bluff enough surely its with hands we beat with A high a lot, he's not turning 99 into a bluff.

My point exactly. I dont care how aggro villain is, im not folding A8 heads up. I dont mind 4 betting with it either vs this opponent.

Take it you want to fold pre Senor. Nit

I approve this message

I 100% agree that of he's FOS that I should be calling to bluff catch those 89/T9/5x combos in reflection. At the time I was like "what if he's turning 55 into a bluff like a tard" type shit. I don't really have any idea what his range is like here OTR cos it's just so fkn wide, hence option to ship

Nope, my loosest position is the small blind

I'd rather fold pre than end up spewing post flop though, just seems like unnecessary spew.

So are you saying you think the BB is usually >A8?

or are you saying you don't kno how to play A8 hu?

No, i open it vs most but it's far from a good hand bvb. What i meant was if you're going to open it, dont spew post flop.

ok then I misread. Sorry.

Whats your sb open? 5% of hands i take it

And never folding an A sb v BB HU -.-

Probably a leak with that attitude young duckster, hands like A6o are absolutely terrible OOP, i probs open 50-60% in the small blind but vs guys like this im ditching Ax offsuit pretty quickly, maybe A8o would be the worst i'd open. Seriously are useless hands, in the worst possible spot you can be in if you expect him to call you a lot bvb.

I can't help but think that not taking advantage of +90% hands pre is -ev.

imo.

For all the time he folds 73o we have to raise small blind to big its just retaded not to. And if he is calling all flops then when we hit top pair or any pair for that matter we are going to get a ton of value

All I can say choop is you're a braver man than me! I like the 3rd barrel but not sure i could have committed to the shove! Just not sure we have enough info on villain to rule out him slowplaying. Hats off to you though and I hope it worked!

Ditto.
Well other than opening from the SB 50-60%. I open around 35%.

Ackys just jealous cos I'm running better in September IMO :P