$25 NLHE 6-max: 3-Way Pot vs. Two Loose Fish, Set Facing Turned 3 To Flush

mrmonkey

mrmonkey

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MP is 43/14 75% AFq over 23 hands
BB is 80/40 73% AFq over 10 hands

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL RUSH (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $74.09
SB: $10.10
BB: $28.91
Hero (UTG): $25.20
MP: $15.55
CO: $29.59

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 6:club: 6:heart:

Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35, 3 players) 6:spade: J:diamond: 5:diamond:
BB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $2.20, MP calls $2.20, BB calls $1.95

Turn: ($8.95, 3 players) 2:diamond:
BB checks, Hero ?

Lead half pot and fold to a raise? Or do we still have enough equity with FH draw vs. two stacks to get it in here?
 
R

RVladimiro

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Any 6 J 5 or 2 will give you the lead assuming one of the fish has a flush (maybe they don't!) giving you 10 outs. I always bet for value and dead money. I don't want to show weakness and induce a bluff in the villains. If no one has a flush they'll probably fold. If they do have a flush you have outs. If you are raised you can safely fold.

As I see it (and I'm a huge fish) there's a lot of fold equity and outs.
 
JOEBOB69

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Real tough spot.With just these few hands on the villains it is the same as 0 reads.Half pot on the turn after the flop raise looks weak to me.I would either B\F ~$6 or C\C,i wouldn't C\F but i'm a station.
 
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RVladimiro

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I don't think it's a matter of wanting fold equity. It's a matter that fold equity is the only thing i can see in this spot. The only worse hands that will call are hands with one diamond and even those won't probably call a bet with such a turn card. And even if they do, they have less outs than the OP.

As I see it, betting here will either pick up the pot money or get action from a better hand so I can't see how to extract value here and all that is left is fold equity.

What am I missing, besides poker knowledge? :D
 
c9h13no3

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all that is left is fold equity.
What hands that are better than ours do you see folding?

As far as what hands call a bet here, I think there's definitely value in a bet. And we should probably be calling a raise too, because folding sets is bad.

Board: 6s 5d Jd 2d

22% { 9c9d, 9d9h, 9d9s, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 55, AdKd, AdQd, AJs, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, QJs, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, J8s+, Td9d, 9d8d, 87s, 7d6d, 6d5d, AJo, KJo, QJo, JcTd, JhTd, JsTd, J9o-J8o, 87o }
78% { 6c6h }

I think this is an interesting hand, worth discussing. I'm pretty much never folding this hand, but you could persuade me into a "get to showdown cheaply, unless the board pairs" line if you showed me the right simulation.
 
Stu_Ungar

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I don't think it's a matter of wanting fold equity. It's a matter that fold equity is the only thing i can see in this spot. The only worse hands that will call are hands with one diamond and even those won't probably call a bet with such a turn card. And even if they do, they have less outs than the OP.

As I see it, betting here will either pick up the pot money or get action from a better hand so I can't see how to extract value here and all that is left is fold equity.

What am I missing, besides poker knowledge? :D

Fish will call here with any J, any PP with a diamond, probably 78 or 34 especially if they have a diamond, a set of 5s a set of 2s where he called the flop with 22 just to see if you would bet again, AK (they dont like being bluffed off AK) You beat all of those hands.
 
Stu_Ungar

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The only worse hands that will call are hands with one diamond and even those won't probably call a bet with such a turn card. And even if they do, they have less outs than the OP.

They dont know what OP has, they simply think "ohh I just picked up a draw" and noone folds when they pick up equity. Especially not fish.
 
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RVladimiro

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What hands that are better than ours do you see folding?

As far as what hands call a bet here, I think there's definitely value in a bet. And we should probably be calling a raise too, because folding sets is bad.

Board: 6s 5d Jd 2d

22% { 9c9d, 9d9h, 9d9s, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 55, AdKd, AdQd, AJs, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, QJs, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, J8s+, Td9d, 9d8d, 87s, 7d6d, 6d5d, AJo, KJo, QJo, JcTd, JhTd, JsTd, J9o-J8o, 87o }
78% { 6c6h }

I think this is an interesting hand, worth discussing. I'm pretty much never folding this hand, but you could persuade me into a "get to showdown cheaply, unless the board pairs" line if you showed me the right simulation.

I think (yey!) that the fact that I used the term "fold equity" is what generated this. I'm not going to hijack the thread and see what I understood wrong regarding fold equity by reading.

Anyway, I would always bet here. A lot of people would fold because of the board texture maybe at the stakes I play. I would not change the bet size I usually use and probably call a raise unless it was some player I'm used to see playing very straighforward.

Makes sense?
 
Stu_Ungar

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I think (yey!) that the fact that I used the term "fold equity" is what generated this. I'm not going to hijack the thread and see what I understood wrong regarding fold equity by reading.

You have zero fold equity, absolutely none.

No better hands than a set fold.
 
rssurfer54

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Anyone else up for a bigger raise on the flop?

And btw, the guy who has played 8/10 is already probably a fish. Chances that a good player does 8/10 is pretty low.
 
mrmonkey

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As far as what hands call a bet here, I think there's definitely value in a bet. And we should probably be calling a raise too, because folding sets is bad.

Board: 6s 5d Jd 2d

22% { 9c9d, 9d9h, 9d9s, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 55, AdKd, AdQd, AJs, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, QJs, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, J8s+, Td9d, 9d8d, 87s, 7d6d, 6d5d, AJo, KJo, QJo, JcTd, JhTd, JsTd, J9o-J8o, 87o }
78% { 6c6h }

I think this is an interesting hand, worth discussing. I'm pretty much never folding this hand, but you could persuade me into a "get to showdown cheaply, unless the board pairs" line if you showed me the right simulation.

I think your range is a little optimistic -- yes, there's a lot of random junk in there that we beat, but I also think any suited diamonds are in there as well. When I stoved, I think I had something like 35% equity or so against these two with enormous calling ranges.

So I'm going to post what what I did on the turn and the resulting river action:

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL RUSH (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $74.09
SB: $10.10
BB: $28.91
Hero (UTG): $25.20
MP: $15.55
CO: $29.59

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 6:club: 6:heart:

Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35, 3 players) 6:spade: J:diamond: 5:diamond:
BB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $2.20, MP calls $2.20, BB calls $1.95

Turn: ($8.95, 3 players) 2:diamond:
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($8.95, 3 players) A:spade:
BB bets $8.95, Hero ?

Now, my reasoning for checking this turn was to get to showdown cheaply and to maybe get a cheap look at a river that might pair the board. I had basically decided I wasn't folding unless a 4th diamond or 4 to a straight came out, and I also figured that I'd be stacking one or both players if the board did pair on the river regardless of the pot size. With basically even equity between the three of us, I also didn't really feel like playing for stacks in this spot. Part of this is likely that I may have had a slight case of MUBS (Monster Under the Bed Syndrome) due to some pretty bad luck the past two months.

I am just wondering if I am playing too gunshy at the moment, or whether my reasoning has any credence.

Also, what are we doing with this river spot?
 
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Pafkata

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pot is only $8, I'd check-call turn and fold river only if 4th diamond hits or someone bets river more than 2/3 pot
 
c9h13no3

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What range did you put your two opponents on MrMonkey?
 
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johnnytt

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Fish will call here with any J, any PP with a diamond, probably 78 or 34 especially if they have a diamond, a set of 5s a set of 2s where he called the flop with 22 just to see if you would bet again, AK (they dont like being bluffed off AK) You beat all of those hands.
+1
 
ben_rhyno

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In the original situation I would have bet the turn and called off I think but the check isn't horrible. Now on the river I'm pretty sure I call, if we raise we don't get called by worse except maybe 22 or 55 (surely not AJ?). I think we can discard 34 from their ranges as they called the PFR, aswell as JJ (which would most likely have 3-bet pre). Therefore our only concern is flushes. This Pot bet on the river could well be a value bet with a made flush, 55 or 22, a semibluff with AdX such as AdJh or 78 with a diamond that missed everything. Looking at the combos of each, and getting 2:1, this looks like a call on the river to me. Hope that made some sort of sense.
 
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