$25 NLHE 6-max: 25NL Rush NLHE - Facing straight vs paired board on river

loopmeister

loopmeister

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Full Tilt - $0.25 NL RUSH (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $51.04
UTG: $27.01
MP: $32.47
CO: $25.00
BTN: $94.31
Hero (SB): $51.70

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 5:spade: 4:spade:

fold, MP raises to $0.87, CO calls $0.87, fold, Hero calls $0.77, BB calls $0.62

Flop: ($3.48, 4 players) 3:diamond: 6:spade: J:heart:
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn: ($3.48, 4 players) 7:diamond:
Hero bets $2.00, BB raises to $4.25], fold, fold,Hero raises to $15.00, BB calls $10.75

River: ($33.48, 2 players) 3:club:
Hero checks, BB bets $23.75, Hero tanks


What's villain's range here? I need to win 33% of the time to make the call. Am I?
 
H

hotace256

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So frustrating to have the nuts on the turn and then that 3 shows up) I think the fold was in order.
why call preflop in the SB with that hand? It may be good odds, like 2.5 to 1, but still tough to play 54 out of position.
check on the flop- nothing else that could have been done on your part obviously
You played the turn well , raising substantially with the nuts.
But he called that huge reraise, so doubtful he is bluffing here.
personally I can't think of a hand that he feels so great about that is less than a straight. J7? J6? AJ?
I would put him on 66, or even 33- might have made quads. 77 is possible, or 73 or 63.

Could have folded preflop, but nothing you could have done differently on the turn. That 3 on the river ruined your hand.
 
The Messiah

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pre is standard, as played its a fold..
 
hackmeplz

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Yeah pretty sure it's a fold. He can have a few missed diamond combos but think boats are way more likely.
 
loopmeister

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personally I can't think of a hand that he feels so great about that is less than a straight. J7? J6? AJ?
I would put him on 66, or even 33- might have made quads. 77 is possible, or 73 or 63.

Could have folded preflop, but nothing you could have done differently on the turn. That 3 on the river ruined your hand.

You follow my thinking 100%. What's been bugging me is this: Do those hands that I beat make up 1/3 of his range? I know villain should repop pre with QQ+ but stranger things have happened, so there's a slim chance he has an overpair as well.

I have no reads on villain, so If I pokerstove a few ranges for some typical 6-max players at 25NL

Hopelessly optimistic range (maybe 5% of players): 33,66,77,JJ,73,63,6J,AJ,QQ+ my equity: 64%

loose range (25-30%?): 33,66,77,JJ,63s,6Js,AJ : my equity: 56%

likely range (50-55%): 33,66,77,JJ,63s,J6s,AJs: my equity 31%

tight range (15-25%): 33,66,77,JJ,AdJd: my equity 9%

Averaging out over all the players, my odds are winning are around 25% - 35%. So I also think it's a fold, but I reckon it's closer than one might think.

Edit: I hadn't considered Axdd or random bluffs. I'll ignore bluffs, but throwing in the Axdd hands puts things very close or just over to the breakeven point. Especially since AdJd could quite easily think he could bluff at the pot once his flush draw busts.
 
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ChuckTs

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I never ever fold this.

Sets get it in on the turn almost always, as do 2 pair.

He's betting tons of missed flush draws, straight draws, missed pair+draws that are turning their hands into bluffs, and the occasional strong TP.

Bet bigger on the turn too, there are tons of hands like above that you're getting plenty of value from. Everything that's calling is calling near pot bets, why bet 2/3 pot?
 
S93

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I never ever fold this.

Sets get it in on the turn almost always, as do 2 pair.

He's betting tons of missed flush draws, straight draws, missed pair+draws that are turning their hands into bluffs, and the occasional strong TP.

Bet bigger on the turn too, there are tons of hands like above that you're getting plenty of value from. Everything that's calling is calling near pot bets, why bet 2/3 pot?
Any case to be made for betting the river? There is obvs a lot hands that are gonna bluff at the river when checked to but I think almost all Jx are probably just checking behind.
Its probably kinda thin but what about betting like half pot?
 
ChuckTs

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Addendum to my other post: sets also have some chance of leading flop, and a huge chance of raising bigger in the first place on the turn. Also, OP, do we have any reads on villain? Nothing mentioned thus far.

@S93: Yeah probably, but I prefer a c/c due to the majority of his range being drawing hands that can't call but may bluff if checked to. He may also be really bad and spazz bet one of his showdownable hands like Jx or 65d or whatever. Didn't actually notice hero checked river the first time I read this.

Reads are pretty important here - vs a fish I just bet, vs a more reg-ish player I c/c. Fish don't bluff, and are likely to both have, and call with Jx, and less likely to bluff missed draws; regs are pretty much the opposite. No Jx in their range, more missed draws, and higher likelihood of bluffing river given more of their range is air.
 
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baudib1

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Hard to believe sets don't get it in on turn.
 
hackmeplz

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If you shove turn as villain you're literally only getting calls from 45
 
ChuckTs

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Even if that were the case.....so what?

Smaller 2 pair/sets, TP+FD/combo draws if hero's bad enough to bet/3bet them, none of which fold after bet/3betting the turn...I'm not necessarily advocating shoving turn as villain (with say, 77) but I'm completely unconvinced that villain doesn't do so like %95 of the time anyway, after raising the turn in the first place. Just because a play doesn't make sense doesn't mean an unknown 25nl player won't do it.
 
c9h13no3

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I vote for donking the flop. I find the turn and river to be boring.
 
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nidal55

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I think ur going nowhere now. Maybe betting the river lower would be a smart idea? Sets dont they shove ott? Is a sick bluff if it is one but i think its quite hard to believe that he just called ur turn raise. What, he was afraid of 45??
 
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