re: Poker & $25 NLHE 6-max: 25NL Rush NLHE - Facing straight vs paired board on river
Originally Posted by hotace256
personally I can't think of a hand that he feels so great about that is less than a straight. J7? J6? AJ?
I would put him on 66, or even 33- might have made quads. 77 is possible, or 73 or 63.
Could have folded preflop, but nothing you could have done differently on the turn. That 3 on the river ruined your hand.
You follow my thinking 100%. What's been bugging me is this: Do those hands that I beat make up 1/3 of his range? I know villain should repop pre with QQ+ but stranger things have happened, so there's a slim chance he has an overpair as well.
I have no reads on villain, so If I pokerstove a few ranges for some typical 6-max players at 25NL
Hopelessly optimistic range (maybe 5% of players): 33,66,77,JJ,73,63,6J,AJ,QQ+ my equity: 64%
loose range (25-30%?): 33,66,77,JJ,63s,6Js,AJ : my equity: 56%
likely range (50-55%): 33,66,77,JJ,63s,J6s,AJs: my equity 31%
tight range (15-25%): 33,66,77,JJ,AdJd: my equity 9%
Averaging out over all the players, my odds are winning are around 25% - 35%. So I also think it's a fold, but I reckon it's closer than one might think.
Edit: I hadn't considered Axdd or random bluffs. I'll ignore bluffs, but throwing in the Axdd hands puts things very close or just over to the breakeven point. Especially since AdJd could quite easily think he could bluff at the pot once his flush draw busts.